Axonyx Inc. (AXYX). The Group's principal activities are to discover, develop and acquire pharmaceutical compounds for the treatment of memory and cognitive disorders. The Group identifies and acquires novel post-discovery central nervous system drug candidates. It acquires the patent rights to these candidates and advances the compounds through clinical development towards regulatory approval. The Group has acquired worldwide exclusive patent rights to three main classes of therapeutic compounds designed for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and related diseases.
Here's the all history chart for AXYX:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1332;image)
On May 19th the new director of the company bought 250,000 shares. On March 31 the company had $75,941,000 in cash, but the market cap is just $74,046,762 (read link: Axonyx Inc. Announces First Quarter 2005 Financial Results (http://www.axonyx.com/news_rsrs/index.html#)).
Considering the short term chart:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=1333;image)
We see that volume has been high over the last few days and on Friday's session we've had an explosion in volume. The risk on this trade is low, since there won't be a technical motive to keep the stock if it breaks $1.32 on close again.
AXYX is a stock on fire for tomorrow's session.
Everyday I will analyze AXYX after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.
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Excellent pick. Should be worth a shot.
So then, you who know, think this might be a stock which would eventually fill that gap? Or is there not that kind of a strength potential? What would be your target?
FYI-
It should be noted that AXYX was added to the Russell 2000 Index on Friday, thus the huge increase in volume. A number of mutual funds rebalance their portfolios according to additions and subtractions to that index.
Well noted Irishman,
When stocks get added to the Russell the process can cause havoc to a chart in terms of price spike / volume spike. The funds also tend to do their buys right at the close and this is exactly what happened to AXYX 1.2M shares traded at 4:00pm, another 1.2M near to 6:00pm. 2.5M out of 3.4M daily total as a result of the funds adding.
Good news is that by now being in the Russell AXYX will gain a lot more notice and now has the 'support' of these funds who have 'bought' in in the mid $1.30s.
As David's chart shows the long term has AXYX with a bottom around the $1 level.
Note the funds do not buy AXYX because they like the company, but because the market cap and other financial calcs mean it 'has' to be added to the index and their rules dictate they must buy stocks in that index.
Risk reward to me looks good, bottom is close by upside is higher...simple.
Mike
the reason why the funds buy right at the close is to mimic the price when it goes in. similar to a stock going in to the s&p.they wouldnt want to buy during the day then watch the price decline. anyways pertaining to AXYX been trading the stock for a couple years now very hard stock to trade so it would be nice to get in at the basement and ultimately ride the elevator or lift for you europeans.but once it does move we could see the five or sixes in a month good luck to everyone
I am not sure if AXYX is a great fundamental play. I would like to quote their recent PR:
"... Results from the first Phenserine Phase III clinical trial, announced on February 7, 2005, showed consistent and positive trends on all primary and secondary domains in the symptomatic management of AD and a safety profile in optimal range for marketability. Current data indicate no statistically significant differences between the efficacy of the active and placebo groups were observed in areas of cognition, global function, behavior, and activities of daily living. After analyzing the data, the Company has concluded that it will investigate the reformulation of Phenserine to a sustained or extended release formulation rather than the immediate release formulation used in the recently completed trials. The reformulation should reduce the pharmacokinetic peak experienced with the immediate release formulation and enable more drug to work longer over the dosing interval in the patients. As a result, Axonyx announced it had halted additional patient recruitment to its second and third Phase III clinical trials that were commenced in June 2004 and September 2004 respectively. Those patients already enrolled in the trial will receive 12 weeks of treatment..."
This is the reason for the "gap", and only positive fundamental data will help to fill this gap. The company managed to raise a lot of cash, so a PIPE is not needed in the next 2 years or so, but with a quarterly cash burn rate of $6-7MM, one has to be careful in the analysis of "buying less then cash". I couldn't find any "goodies" in the company's pipeline, so you guys are betting on a short term technical play, but I am afraid that there is nothing more but a mere short term T/A hope here.
FWIW
Bought at the open @ $1.40. Of course, the updated chart and analysis will come only after the close. The chart is already on the recommendation text above.
Stocky,
We are here to buy the stock for short term play.
Very correct :)
I had owned AXYX in the past and sold it for profit before it took big plung. Goodluck for those who own it now. They have plump cash in bank.
Thanks for your replies to AXYX's posts, very interesting. Surprisingly the volume was strong again today and we had a beautiful white marubozu.
The way is clear for $2 a share, perhaps in the next few days. I believe the stock overeacted to the news that stockpicker mentioned and will enter the gap zone at $2.04-$4.63.
The company has more cash in the bank than its market cap (well, not anymore ;)), I don't see much risk at these levels ...
Damn AXYX, black marubozu more than offsetting the previous day's advance. I don't mind selling at a small loss or at a big profit, but it's hard to sell with a small profit, since the strategy is to «cut the losses and let the profits run».
Of course, sometimes we can clearly see there's no more profit to be made on a particular trade and it is wise to take 5 or 3 or even 1% profit. I think this wasn't the case with AXYX. Everything was in place for the stock to advance, but it didn't.
What am I left with? The initial trading plan, which is to hold as long as the stock closes above $1.32 and expect an advance to above $2 to sell with a profit.
... back to fundamentals ...
do you guys really think that a 16-man company based in Manhattan (7th avenue - according to Yahoo) can be a succesfull biotech company? I mean, it can, but not when a CEO takes home over $500,000/year, I would look for someone more hungry...
In order to be traded above cash, a company has to show real value - not sure that it can be found in AXYX.
I would take the little profit and run (but heck, I know barely nothing about TA)
AXYX spoke for anyone who was willing to listen: $1.32 is a support and the decision point for this stock. That's where bulls and bears are meant to fight. The short term trend is higher, but the stock is facing a meltdown from the highs ... however, the past is of little value I guess, the high values the stock traded in the past have nothing to do with the future.
I disagree a little with stockpicker when he says that for a company to trade above cash it must have some value ... I see many companies trading much below cash, in risk of not meeting it's short term obligations, and yet with higher expectations and «value» than AXYX.
Trading above cash we know the company will be here, from his words, for 2 more years, at least. In these 2 years many things may happen on the positive side. I still think the stock overreacted with that 60% gap down and it should correct somewhat to values above $2 a share.
I keep the trading plan: sell with a profit a bit above $2. Sell with a small loss if we get a close below $1.32 (because that would show the stock doesn't want to go up in the short term, and money must be allocated where there's short term potential).
Perhaps I will have to concede that stockpicker is right and I'm wrong on AXYX, no problem with that. But I have to give the stock a chance to hold on to it's support at $1.32 and rebound from that level.
AXYX did rebound from $1.32, altough on low volume. I don't mind the stock goes up on low volume, since my account changes with price changes, not with volume changes.
Positive signs, keeping the stock.
Volume continued to be on the weak side and prices retreated a bit. Sticking to the plan of selling with a profit around $2 and with a small loss if we get a close below $1.32.
I'm getting sick and tired of false breakouts, but of course one can't argue with the tape, the market is what it is and there's only one winner on a discussion between a traders views and wants and the market: the market !
I guess we'll see AXYX closing below $1.32, everything points to that. But perhaps the 50 day simple moving average is providing a better support than this horizontal level. The 50 day SMA has a positive slope and I think we're still going to get that rebound to somewhere around $2, the reasoning for this trade still exists, and that is that the stock overreacted to news on that 50% gap down on February the 7th. That gap down produced an open at $1.96. AXYX should trade above that level now that we have a short term advance phase.
Giving a bit more room to AXYX, only a close below the red line on the chart will make me sell the stock.
I'm getting more and more prepared to sell AXYX with a small loss. But I have to be disciplined and keep the initial plan, so I'm not selling today.
AXYX did surprise me with this rally out of the $1.32 support (again). The rise happened not because of strong demand but because of lack of supply. This is exactly what I expect from AXYX, after such an enormous fall in a short period of time, I think the people who really wanted to sell already did so.
So there's room for the stock to rebound to the $2 area, correcting a bit of what was an overreaction to some news item.
What a positive surprise AXYX has been, rebounding from the $1.32 support level with higher volume.
This goes to show how important it is to have a simple plan and then let the market, the best judge, to know what's right and what's not.
I'm looking for something around $2 to sell this position ...
Nothing new on AXYX, one close outside of the $1.32-$1.62 will provide short term direction. Hope it is $1.62 who will break, sitting on a small 7% profit at current prices.
Still hoping for the best but prepared for the worst on AXYX. The first close outside of the $1.32-$1.62 range will give the medium term direction of the stock.
It wasn't pleaseant to see that AXYX couldn't make it to the top of the range, around $1.62. Volume on the advance phase was weak too.
This may mean the stock will break before it advances. I see a symmetrical triangle pattern now. So my trading plan will change a bit:
1) Sell if the stock closes below the ascending trendline
2) If AXYX makes a bullish breakout, closing above the descending trendline, I'll calculate the technical target of the breakout and try to sell there with a profit.
The open was promising but then AXYX fell back. The technical boundaries are pretty much clear, and so is my trading plan. Hold the stock as long as it closes above that blue ascending trendline and hope for a breakout of the descending line.
This is a short term symmetrical triangle pattern.
AXYX isn't giving much hope, I'm getting more and more ready to take a small loss on this one, just need a technical confirmation to do it. But I'm not selling today, it still closed above support.
AXYX doesn't stop surprising me. When I am absolutely ready to take my small loss the stock rallies. Still on that symmetrical triangle. AXYX closed on after hours at $1.54.
For today, the lower limit of the triangle is $1.39 and the upper limit is $1.56. I hope it breaks out on the upside.
AXYX has an amazingly tight technical pattern. Something has to give, be it bullish or bearish. I hope it is bullish and I fear it is bearish. Either way, I'm prepared for the outcome and will take appropriate action.
For today the descending resistance will be at $1.55 and the ascending support will stand at $1.40.
AXYX continues to be very undecided. But it must decide in the next few days, as the triangle is closing on the chart. Support for today is at $1.41 and resistance at $1.55, an extremely tight range.
david news about forest labs( FRX)namenda drug for alz being rejected could give AXYX a push it did so last time .the thinking would be maybe a buy out by frx .(it could also be a neg. thinking that nothing gets approved )should tell either way in next 2 days
Thanks for your post freimuch, hope you're right, because AXYX is completely stuck on a very tight trading range.
Decision time won't come later than the middle of August. Perhaps AXYX gets interest like so many other small biotech companies and breaks this symmetrical triangle pattern to the upside.
AXYX held the line. It was close, but it held on close.
We got these news, I don't know if it will have any effect on the share price:
Axonyx Announces Second Interim Analysis of Beta-Amyloid Trial; Data Require Further Analysis - Trial Continues (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=127329&guid=%7BB270F0BF%2D0EFA%2D4E56%2D8785%2D2F20F007651C%7D&symb=)
Support for today will be at $1.42 and resistance will stand at $1.54. Given yesterday's close was $1.42 I'm ready to sell the stock if it is set to close lower on today's session. AXYX must rise today for me to keep holding the stock.
As said in the prior analysis, I sold AXYX yesterday at an average price of $1.38 :'( So much work for nothing, but that's how this game works, sometimes you profit big, sometimes you lose small and you'll do fine over the long run.
Took a small loss of 1.43% on AXYX.
Excellent news today for a company that (even with a big 20+% pop in price today) STILL has more cash in the bank that market cap. ;D I bought a chunk ... could be an easy 20-40% gainer in the short term if it simply retraces back to the trading range of $1.20 to $1.60 of several months prior to September 20, 2005 (going back further, the stock was $4 to $8 during 2004).
The news is that a new analysis of a subgroup of patients from two curtailed Phase III clinical trials for Phenserine. The subgroup demonstrated a statistically significant benefit over placebo as measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (one of the FDA approved measurements of efficacy in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials). The analysis included 182 patients who received Phenserine treatment or placebo for more than 12 weeks and up to 26 weeks of treatment.
Further trials will be required to further confirm the results of the additional analysis. The additional analysis was completed as part of the program to identify a partner for the further development of Phenserine.
On September 20, 2005, AXYX had announced the top line results from its primary efficacy analysis of all patients that participated in the curtailed Phase III clinical trials; this analysis did not demonstrate a statistically significant benefit associated with Phenserine over placebo.
You ever get the feeling you just flushed some $$$ down the drain? I sure have that feeling right now! >:(