3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on December 10, 2007, 09:50:17 AM

QuoteSome pompus clown on this MB was mentioning that FRPT shares swelled from 1 million to 61 million in seven years. I suggest he go back and learn that this company was started with an OTC shell and not even in the same business.

neonfreon2008, if you use this type of language again on this message board you'll be banned forever from it. What I wrote about the # of shares outstanding is an historical fact. I know FRPT comes from the OTCBB, I even recommended buying the stock when it was trading below $5 as I wrote "FRPT: a $1 B company in the making". La-onda knows about this.

Anyway, FRPT is going sharply down now and I know how losing money can make a man mad, but this can't be used as an excuse for disrespect. This isn't Yahoo MB, good luck with FRPT.

Welp, this stock can raise emotions out of people...I for one have a lot vested.  Looks as if you were right!  Good Call!!  16K shares at 11.46 average price with significant margin.  About 20 cents away from a big ole margin call!!

Quote from: neonfreon2008 on December 07, 2007, 02:35:09 AM


Consider FRPT a leading breakout candidate on fundamentals alone.
This company has been under a massive mis-information campaign and naked short selling.


Future Orders
RUMOR
The shorts play up the recent story that the Marines will cut back on future MRAPs orders.
FACT
a. What they leave out is that the Marines already placed almost a half billion dollars in orders with FRPT in Oct., before they considered cutbacks.
b. The apparent reason for the cutbacks on MRAP fuure buys is for the Marines to start buying FRPTs new Cheetah which will replace the hummer for safer statical missions.

Capitalization of new Orders
RUMOR
FRPT will have to go back to the capital markets to raise up to $150M by equity or debt.
FACT
So what? $150M is nothing in light of the $1.5 the government ALREADY owes FRPT on active Purchase Orders. Thats without counting the $2.3 Billion in DOD orders earmaked in Dec

Stock Dilution
RUMOR
Some pompus clown on this MB was mentioning that FRPT shares swelled from 1 million to 61 million in seven years. I suggest he go back and learn that this company was started with an OTC shell and not even in the same business.
FACT
FRPT has the same amount of shares today it had the day it opened on the NASDAQ.
FRPT went from no orders a year ago to have the leading market share in MRAPs. It did this beating some of the biggest names in defense.

Rumor
Iraq War will end in 2008
FACT
Iraq war will last until 2012 no matter who wins the white house
Afghanistan is not goin away either
Foreign Armys drool for genuine FRPT MRAPs

Scenarios 
FRPT is a clear takeover target
FRPT is over-shorted (21% retail shorts following bad advice) and only so many will fit through the door when the buying starts.
FRPT has been on the naked short list for 101 consecutive days in violation of REG SHO.
FRPT could see a multi billion dollar order in a matter of days.
60 days from Q4 reporting that will reflect massive profits and the shape of things to come.

If you are not buying or adding, you will miss a huge gap up.

$10.00 is a artificially low price. Fidelity owns 12% of FRPT and added in the $20's
$30 remains the target for those of us who can separate fact from fiction.

Thank you!!  Makes me feel a little better about things 

I agree with you about upper management not caring about shareholders...with you 100%!!

The other guy definitely diliusional on that point.  First, they carry no conference calls, shareholders have no idea of future, ramping up, prospects for Cheetah, international orders, etc...

I also agree with you that increasing shares is probably not a good thing but I think it just depends on the company...and it didnt seem to hurt it as it ran to 31 not too long ago with the increased shares.

You make very valid points to which I'm behind however, its hard for me to overlook the shorting interest you had.  With that said, I wish that I had shorted based on the Naked Short Selling on stock and recent performance that has struck.  I'm sure you wish you continued to short as well 

Quote from: David Randolph on December 04, 2007, 06:36:08 AM
Hi la-onda and others here on FRPT.

You probably know I was bullish on FRPT at $5, but turned bearish between $15 and $20 (even shorted it and covered for a small loss - shorting is a waste of time), just to see it climb to a high of $31. Yesterday it closed at $9.61.

The main reason that made me dislike the stock was that I saw heavy historical dilution and more of that as it went up ... let me check that again. Yes, look at FRPT's historical share count: 1.6 million shares in 2001, 6 million in 02, 10.2 million in 03, 19.4 million in 04, 36.1 million in 05 and 66.8 million in 06. The market cap rose 42 fold in five years just due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

When I read something like ...

«Another factor that makes this a great trade is the management of Force Protection. They are pro-active and are defending the share price, or trying to at least.»

... I get a feeling that this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. My feeling gets confirmed when I read the following:

«I am currently averaging into a full position on FRPT. I long the stock and the January $12.50 and $15.00 calls. I am expecting a bounce on short covering of at least 20% in the next few days. I do plan to sell most if not all of the shares as well as the calls on the bounce; however I do feel this will make an excellent entry point for a long term hold as well.»

He likes the stock but will sell it on a bounce? And instead of the stock is holding calls? I'm sorry, but I believe this man will lose all the money he invested in FRPT, and he deserves it. Ok, perhaps I'm being too radical here and writing without full knowledge, double sorry on this.

Moving on to the story ... the first positive factor is that it seems dilution slowed considerably, since the current number of shares outstanding is 68.25 million against 66.8 million in 2006.

The company turned profitable, so it seems it doesn't need investors money anymore. But still, you know that if the company faces any financial troubles (like a few quarters of losses), this management won't hesitate in printing more and more shares. They've done it in the past in a heavy way, so they're not particularly interested in creating or sustaining long term value for shareholders. This will make shareholders suffer a double whammy, the stock will go down because results are poor and it will go down even more due to dilution.

I see FRPT is a low margin business. Revenues increased a lot in Q3 2007 (389% from Q3 2006) to $206.3 M, but EPS for the quarter still was just $0.16 (and it was a record on a normalized basis). If we annualize this we get $0.64, which puts the stock trading at $9.61/$0.64 = 15 times earnings.

But I guess the biggest challenge for FRPT is that the products it sells (war vehicles) last what, 20 or 30 years? And how many of them are needed? I feel demand for FRPT's vehicles will be cyclical ... it depends on wars, federal budgets and the replacement cycle of the vehicles. It isn't a long term growth story in my view. Revenues and profits will go up and down like a yo-yo, like it has been happening with GM and Ford over the last decades. FRPT's problem is that in lack of demand management will print shares for their money.

Obviously there's a lot more to cover about FRPT, but that historical dilution information (and I'm sorry if I'm repeating this too many times) makes me long term bearish on the stock. I believe it can and will probably go back down to $1 over the next few years.

I wish I'm wrong, good luck if you own FRPT

Everybody has their position & opinion and that is fine.

Let me quote what you say and please tell me how I can find anything credible/honesty about your writing

"even shorted it and covered for a small loss"

1.  This just tells me that you are shorting the stock period, I dont know what prices and for all I know
your negative comments leaves me to belive you are probably still shorting to make back what you loss if you even loss.

2.  If you say you loss by shorting and a waste of time, please put the transaction in full form posted here, that would lend credibility along with broker, trade times/dates so I can call & verify

3. I admire your opinion on whether you think its going to $100 or $1 dollar

4.  Diliution is not always a bad thing right?? Especially with a hyper growth company???

5.  WHy no mention of Cheetah, international orders, etc...

6.  Your "examination" has so many holes in it that is generall a very bland look at FRPT in my opinion which doesnt really mean much.

But once you pointed to the obvious, I knew from reading the rest of the post that it would be NEGATIVE BIG TIME!!

You had me at hello!!

Good Luck whatever your position is except if its short!!