3SOF

Hmmm... I think we are experiencing some seller's remorse or maybe the shorts are finally taking their profits and moving on. Anyway the selling seems way overdone from a fundamental point of view and we will hopefully snap back to a level where the stock price reflects the value of Gigamedia's assets and the potential the company has.

Quote from: setravis on May 30, 2009, 01:20:07 PM
Buying opportunity ?  
Biz in Greater China and Taiwan...$1.83 in cash per share with very little debt, reporting June 9th, any potential earnings issues should be priced in already, nice bump to the upside expected.

It seems to me to be a great buying opportunity  

When the just announced Everest deal goes through they will have around $3.5 in cash per share.

With a POS of $3.23 you basically get their Chinese Online gaming business and 40% of their European gaming business free of charge (The European business alone is valued at $66 million or $1.2 per share based on the deal)

You now have a company that are focused on taking advantage of the Greater Chinese online gaming market and I think that long term this is the right strategic positioning of the company.

The Q3 earnings release was disappointing but I still really like the management and the way they continue to position the company for long term  shareholder value.

The stock is in a sever downtrend but I do think this is a perfect entry point for a long term investor.

Quote from: jorgegr on June 26, 2008, 10:54:37 AM
How do you say "I'm very happy to own GSS"  in Maputo . Suppose you are still in this one
THX for suggesting it. I'm in.

Well well well it seems we all celebrated a bit too early 

The 100 % increase in the electricity price in Ghana is not the news you would like to hear when you are invested in a Gold mining company in Ghana. GSS predicts that this new power rate will translate into an increase of $60 to $85 per ounce based on forecasted production. But the reaction in the market seems to be out of proportion with the actual impact of this increase.

First of all the price increase is in local currency. It might be hard to imagine there are currencies that are weaker than the Dollar (and I am not referring to the Zim Dollar here!) but the Ghanaian currency has lost 12.6% of its value against the USD during the last 3 month so the price of electricity measured in USD has fallen quite significantly and will most likely continue to fall in the future.

And then there is the other part of the equation – the gold price. The increase in electricity price caused a drop in GSS's stock price from 3.48 to 2.64. Last time GSS traded at 2.64 was in October 2006 at that time gold traded at around 600 compared to 930. That puts a 85 USD per ounce into perspective.

Now that doesn't stop some analysts to make gloomy predictions:

QuoteThe news forced Blackmont Capital analyst Richard Gray to downgrade Golden Star from "hold" to "sell." He cut his price target by $1 to $2.75.

"While the company believes these power costs should be closer to the $0.14/kWh level, we believe the decision to increase the costs is a significant blow to the company's ability to survive," the analyst said in a note.

He expects cash cost to rise above US$600 per ounce, causing margins to become "dangerously slim."

"the costs is a significant blow to the company's ability to survive" – hmmm that is a bit difficult to take serious. In the first quarter of 2007 GSS production cost per ounce were 535 USD and the gold price was 650 USD giving them a margin of 115 USD. Today their margin is 330 USD after the price increase. Assuming that Mr. Richard Gray had a neutral rating one year ago you can only wonder why he is afraid of the survival of the company after the margin has increased almost 300%.

Red Back Mining which is a Canadian Mining company that also has their main operation in Ghana had a much more relaxed reaction to the rate increased. The stock fell back with 2.27% and is up on the week.

It is against my principles to double down but I am really tempted to do just that when the market opens on Monday. I think 2.64 is an absolute steal for GSS.

Finaly the charts of GSS, Gold and Red Back. Make your own conclusions!

It is a brutal sell off today but it seems like some of the money is floating into gold

Quote from: setravis on May 21, 2007, 07:33:01 AM
A favorite long term gold stock, Pulled back.......

It is amazing how a 1 year old comment still can be valid in this volatile market 

GSS is indeed an old favorite gold stock and a gold stock which very soon will turn a sharp corner and produce profits. In fact the forecast for PE in 2009 is 8.19 that seems pretty cheap.

I used the selloff in gold yesterday to buy some GSS (and ABX). Long-term I see the world going into an inflationary period and is therefore very bullish on gold.

Quote from: poli on March 13, 2008, 12:30:51 PM
David,
I will not be following you with this recommendation of shorting right now.

David is not shorting the market but rather removing the systematic risk.

If the stocks 3SOF is holding perform better than the market we will do great whether the market goes up or down.

Pretty smart if you believe you can beat the market but don't know which way the market is going  

Hi David.

I don't think that the share price is a result of the company's performance or outlook but solely reflects the company's lack of credibility in the investment community. As a Chinese company they have to be more holy than the Pope to earn the trust of an investment community that on a daily basis is being bombarded with messages about Chinese companies reaping off US investors. UTVG has unfortunately made itself very vulnerable for this kind of mistrust by:

• Announcing a deal that later falls a part
• Restate earnings
• Revise guidance
• Making unexpected financing deals

It will take time for them to win the trust of the market and therefore time before the stock price will reflect the fundamentals of the company. And this will only happen if they actually deliver on the promises.

If you are convinced that the company is running a good and healthy business (and I haven't seen any information indicating the opposite) then I would certainly keep holding the stock. The fundamentals seems stellar.

Just my 2 Euro cents 

Finally some volume and quite a nice move 

Will be exciting to see if we can keep the steam up!

Nice run!

MA(50) might give us resistance and the stock seems to be a little overextended so I am taking profit here. I will hopefully be able to buy my shares back at a lower price 

Quote from: Fré on July 26, 2007, 04:31:28 PM
Investors really need good nerves for holding this stock, but with another 30-40% growth for 2008 this stock is really undervalued at a p/e of 7.

T-Bay for sure has required some good nerves the last couple of weeks 

I have moved the stock from my watch list to my "this is too cheap" list.

The earnings report for Q1 was not stellar but pretty good with a 56% year over year increase in revenue.

One issue that continues to hunt the stock is however cash collection.  Accounts receivables for the last quarter was 22.5 million USD compared to quarterly revenue of 6 million USD and to add to the concern the company wrote off 1 million USD as bad debt in the quarter.

The slow cash collection seems to be because their agreements with handset manufacturers requires the manufacturer to pay royalties when the handsets designed by T-bay is actually sold and the revenue collected.

As said this is not a new problem for the company and in these cases it can be a good idea to look at the cash flow. T-Bay has 16.4 million USD in operational cash flow during the last 12 months, This mean that the P/CF is 3.9.

If a PE of 7 is cheap then a P/CF of 3.9 is a steal.

Hmmm I am talking myself into buying the stock   

Quote from: cumulina on September 04, 2007, 03:25:59 PM
Wow - I'm quite a trader, huh?



Currently I'm 14.53% underwater with my NTRZ that I bought on friday.

I guess I'll hang on to them - can't bear to sell with a loss.

Hmmm.... We have to work on the timing but it seems like the relentless selling has been replaced by relentless buying 

Nutracea is a great growth story even though it is still not reflected on the bottom line as the company has to take upfront cost to prepare for expansions.

Concerning arsenic this statement will hopefully put that issue to rest: http://www.nutracea.com/arsenic_announcement.php

Somebody made a killing below 1.2!

Quote from: joet on August 31, 2007, 03:38:41 AM
I believe in a year, especially 2 years we will look back and see what a bargain this is here under $2

Hi Joet,

I like to keep my promises and one was to buy back Nutracea if I got a second chance. Well I did today 

I am a little better prepared this time having listened to the CC and even though the quarter was disappointing I believe Nutracea has the potential to become one of the best investments that I have ever made so this time I will sit tight on my stocks 

I am going on a Safari to Maracuene River this weekend to go canoeing. There is nothing like being on a silent flowing river in the sunset thinking about the next stock that will secure my retirement on a small island in the indian ocean 



This picture is from a previous trip and I have to say that I am going a bit further down the river (in the salty part). Crocs do In theory not like salty water even though I understand that this is an issue that is still being discussed in intellectual circles.

Well I am just a simple investor trying to find value in the murky waters of Wall Street. I think I have found it in Nutracea. As long as all Nutracea's plants are in US the company will have some seasonality and it seems like the investors are not looking beyond the most recent quarter.

4th quarter will be outstanding and will result in a PE that even David would find attractive. The PE is already in the fifties. That is really cheap for a company which biggest headache is how to meet the demand and who has a 50% gross margin. When they start to roll-out plants in Asia the seasonality will diminish and the value will hopefully be clear for everybody

Quote from: David Randolph on August 16, 2007, 07:51:11 AM
GSB's chart turned bearish now, with the stock closing below the $4 support level. GSB is trading like a stock, not like a business.

Hmmm... I guess there were too many Technicians and too few fundamentalists in this stock.

I like the story and the outlook so I am in!

(I have been on a bit of a shopping spree today  )

Thanks Oliver!

I sold NTRZ again. I guess I have been out of the market for toooo long - a 10% profit in a couple of hours was just to much to resist 

I will buy it again though - probably higher than I sold it (1.59) but in this market it is nice to sit on cash.

For the record: I have also sold FRO.

I have buy orders for both the stocks in the market just in case there will be another buying opportunity   

Quote from: la-onda on August 15, 2007, 10:31:58 PM
down heavily after earnings:

I start to see some real bargains in this market  and NTRZ is one of them. Yes the result was not outstanding but the strength of the business model and the outlook for the company is as good as when I last bought NTRZ (at the same price as they are trading at today  ) and the balance sheet is even stronger. I have therefore startet a position here.

Other stocks bought today are FRO, VLO, QXM and STO. The list might be longer during the day if the sell off continues 

A great opportunity for bargain hunting but be selective!!