3SOF

The "teach in" should include how this disease can be totally eliminated with proper hospital isolation techniques.

It should also include that I can get generic Vancomycin for 1/10 of what it is selling and easily formulate it for GI absorption...and I have a company working on this.

Likewise culture and sensitivities shall be in progress for other antibiotics in the same family which probably still work as C diff is gradually building resistance to Vancocin.

Charts often defy reality...but only for so long.

Good Luck,

Dr. John

I bought this one today at $2.50

They are introducing FASTIVE, the latest fluroquinone antibiotic and have rampped up their sales force and it is rolling out.

But the big reason I bought is they are in the late Phase ll trial  for Ramplanin, their anwser to VPHM's Vancocin. In studies to date, it appears just as good and may hit Vancocin resistant strains of C Difficlie. The OSCI drug will be a 2 times per day dose vs 4 times a day for Vancocin.That is a big + with patient compliance.

SO are 76 Million and Float is 75 Million

It is above its 50 day MA and possibly appraching a Golden Bullish Cross.

They have a lot of cash 125 Million and debt of $175 Million. I need to dig more into this so I just nibbled for now.

I look at companies like this as still start ups. But as FASTIVE gains footing and Ramplanin can come on stream, well you see what happened to VPHM. I know most of you are traders and I do not think this may fit that mold. However, I like its prospects.

I spoke to the company Lab person about the testing results and also to the IR person about FASTIVE to verify what i had read in what was published.

John

Still holding what I have.

But bought OSCI as a back up. Their Ramoplanin [R] drug for C Difficile is looking good in late phase ll studies vs Vancocin [V]. Stock at $2.50 looks cheap to me. Plus they are rolling out a new drug for upper respiratory illness. Even if comparable, when approved, it will have a market.

2 times a day dose for R v 4 times a day for V gets better compliance.

John

Dear Mike and people folllowing this thread,

Mike, I will not characterize your post as you have mine by punctuation. I am human and delving.

I reluctantly posted the links at the request of Gurukol who desired them...one was Encap, as you know. There are other links but I fear that this is getting too far afield. I was criticised for not posting links and now links I post are extrapolated. The Canada Pharmacy link is not mentioned.

I am in contact with Encap and currently in dialog. I have made no vernture decisions and all is exploratory. I am awaiting call backs from 3 M Pharmaceuticals and one other firm.

I am in contact with the FDA bureaucracy about the IND process for Vancomycin HCL USP

I do not know for sure that there can not be generic competition for Vancocin and there are no absolutes anymore that people know that there can not be a generic. Firms have gotten around "trade secrets" in numerous legal ways.

I am not a neophyte in new ventures or to investing. I have had successes and failures in both and learned from them all. I now look carefully before I leap and never invest more than 3% of my net worth on any situation

I fail to see how my posts have been anything less than friendly. If something came off that way, then I apologize. I may have been tired.

BTW, Vancocin is a trademark and is not being diligently protected.

My DD on VPHM has led me to 3 other potential competitiors for Vancocin besides Vancomycin HCL USP. They are even mentioned by VPHM. One has a product in late Stage ll trials and is superior so far to Vancocin or any other directed to C Difficile.

The information I am trying to convey is meant to be straight forward. Put succinctly, my DD has led me to  potential competition for Vancocin that may be on the horizon. I do not want to be blind sided and thought my information useful for me to make a decision to keep the free stock. I simply shared that. VPHM, by their own reports have lined up another manufacturer for Vancocin and have even stated little intent to manufacture themselves. That is a wise decision given all of the above. It would be foolish to expend moneys for facilities that produce a product,that while growing now because of a hopspital epidemic of carelessness and general non isolation of those infected, may face competition which people tend to downplay.  Likewise, Lilly knew all of the above and obviously decided to move on. It is a good deal for both. But it is not a forever cash cow, that some apparently seem to believe.

VPHM technicals are great. If one bases their investments solely on that, then go with it.

VPHM fundamentals are good now. I am merely trying to look ahead. That is the spirit of my posts on this subject.

I hope I have allayed your fears if you had any. Likewise, I mean no one any ill will.

Sincerely,

John

You convinced me....here is a sampling. And, yes the chart is the thing...until it breaks down...not saying it will...I still hold it.

Here ya go:

http://www.doctorsolve.com/Vancocin/14195.aspx

http://www.vancomycin-oral-capsules.co.uk

Viro wars..... It has anice sound. I thought it was due diligence with a flair. I checked the links and they worked. If anyone has a problem with them, please let me know.

John

Dear Mike,

Perhaps I did misunderstand you. As i said, it likely will have little impact on VPHM now. But with repeat infections and the cost going up because of opportunistic pricing, one does not need a crystal ball to see that there will eventually be competition from someone and/or follow up prescriptions will be filled in Canada..

Just do a search. You know the old saying "seek and you shall find". At the Yahoo message Board, "there are none so blind that will not see". They think I am short. Anyone short VPHM must either really know what he or she is doing or be crazed.

This is my last VPHM post since my holdings are lighter.

Sincerely,

John

I am checking out WLDA and if the NAA aquisition numbers are good after the late filing, I will take a large position.

Mike,

I have absolutel no sellers remorse....I have free stock...what more can I ask.

But get real, why would I want to share my DD sources on what I found? I did a lot of work and may get into this business, so why would I want more competition. I am being as straight up as I can be.

If I fail in my endeavor, all I lost was time.

But the fact is it can be gotten in Canada from another supplier as far as i can tell from talking with the Pharmacy.

And why would I lie about it? Why would they lie about it?  But the real question is....WAS IT IN THE PROSPECTUS OR FILING STATEMENTS?....I did not take the time to look.

I have spoken with the Pharmacy and with 3 M Pharmaceuticals and I would doubt if VPHM really cares about this yet....but I do care.

Bottom line, I like the VPHM story, but there were always 2 nagging questions I had.

1. Why would Lilly dump this.....yes I know all the conventional reasons...but...

2. A product off patent and only covered by "trade secrets"...yo! Like some can not be hired.

My background in Organic Chemistry, MBA in Finance,  Medical Degree, years working in industry and over 20 years in patient care was screaming at me to dig more.

I am not trying to scare ANYONE. The sky is not falling in on VPHM...they just gave me a potentially great opportunity if I can get all of the pieces together.

At one point I almost was considering violating my allocation rules to get more VPHM in the $6s, but those questions kept me back. There is always a reason for everything, though we may not know it at the time. If nothing else, it is a great learning experience. As with all DD, there is always someone who will dig deeper and likely even deeper than I.

I am a truth seeker. When one is totally committed to a stock, objectivity is sometimes lost.

All the best.

John

Just for fun, I did some checking around about Vancocin....and not even the other options.

3 M Pharmaceuticals manufactures it in Canada...at least that is what the Pharmacy supplier told me...of course I will check it out...so it is not gospel

There is no such thing as a lock on a drug off patent. US citizens can buy Vancocin directly from a pharmacy in Canada.

If this starts hitting the higher volumes, I may even come up with the money to get an IND to sell it in the US.

BTW, it is sold in Canada now as manufactured by 3 M Pharmaceuticals in Canada...and yes that is a division of the BIG MMM.

Now I doubt very much that VPHM is supplying 3 M Pharmaceuticals...but who knows...I will check that out too.

So it will run and I still have my VPHM, but if I can, I will form the Pharmaceutical Division of my company Cappelos, Inc. and compete with them.

I know Ha Ha.

John

Anyone interested in contacting me may do so at [email protected] or through this forum.

Mike,

I am still holding some in profit VPHM stock and am impassioned.

All  I can say is I am a retired Physician and I have seen products in the URI inhaler field before and they failed. They ARE very expensive...and how many people will pay a premium to resolve a self limiting illness....just a little quicker than an inexpensive zinc gluconate which is proven to decrease the time. I do not have time for a treatise.

If you do not think that Vancocin is on the radar of some wannabe company, then you may be kidding yourself. I personally know of several other alternative treatments for C Difficlle that are less expensive. It is not the first line treatment. Just check the PDR and other sources. It is only supposed to be used after first time failures. The reason is that there isa high occurrence of kidney disorders. It is sub standard care to prescribe it as first choice. Have you ever seen the face of an elderly person who had to go and pay $200 for a Vancocin Rx?

"If" successful is the key word. All the companies with Hep C drugs think they will be successful.

Shorts sometimes do get it right...at some price.

The earnings had a good reason to have a down estimate for the quarter...but I was disappointed and the Yahoo site is not correct withe forecast from Piper...briefing.com got it right. Many just read the Yahoo extract of the report.

My view is unbiased and I know there are opposing points of view. Personally some profit off the table is OK with me. I am 25 % in cash...so that is a factor in my opinions and that is all they are.

It is a sentiment thing too. The people on the VPHM board are talking $100 by the end of the year and the shorts are talking $9. I do not know. I made a profit, have some for long term and want to have a realistic point of view.

All the best to those of you fully loaded. You deserve to get rich on VPHM for havingthe guts to stay with it all the way. To me this concept of never selling a running stock defies reason. For every one that keeps on running there are many more which have set backs.

That is it for me on this one. All the best.

JVC

I have no argument with any holder or the concept of value above.

Here are my other personal reasons for stepping back and  I could be wrong.

The earnings for the second quarter being forecast were actually lower than previously thought...as was the adjusted earnings forecast for the year.

Vancocin is a one trick pony with no patents and just "trade secrests". It is just a matter of time for competition at the high price of Vancocin. One piece of news on this and that is all she wrote.

The drug for colds" will   be very expensive...and  market penetration may not be as suggested by the hype. There have been other upper respiratory inhalers for the common cold that have flopped.

There is a lot of competition for a Hep C drug.

Shorts are at very high level...if they are wrong this flys a great deal...but sometimes they are right.

The Yahoo  board sentiment is over ebbulent and talk of $100 by the end of the year.

I admit I am not good at picking exits.

JVC

You are 100% correct.

But people were throwing numbers around like $1.00 per share for '05 and why is the second half being forecast so low? .....no more derivatives or costs expressed as far as I know.

I may regret it but if I do I will come back in...I do not mind admitting a mistake.

When i see too many people in love with a stock at the message Board of VPHM, I get concerned about my objectivity and forget it is just a stock game.

JVC

I am going to stand aside...and if it gets away so be it.

I am not thrilled with the full year estimate...but who knows....I know never sell strong stock! yada yada yada

Current E is 22sh and Forward PE is 16sh

The earnings release as I see it may be anti cliimactic.

John

Good call. Once it closes above $10.14, it will go some more. A lot of "traders" are stting their buys a little above the last high and dumping for pennies to dimes to quarters to halves depending upon personality.

John

Here are a couple of idea. Short term I look for working through the $10.20sh resistance and then consolidation when it hits $11.48 or so. After that, true value will take over and take it to the $20s by the end of the year. No guarantees of couurse.

Also WLDA bears a marked resemblance to this and may be to the airlines what VPHM is to Pharma. Check it out. I got in on the late SEC filing scare. We shall see.

John

Dave,

Good plan as I see it.

BTW, I am likeing IBAS.OB

Gold standard crossover, Insider buying a little back and turnaround in process.

John