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Messages - Roc914

#1
Previous 3SOF Picks / Re: Love the concept: GZFX.OB
October 26, 2005, 02:41:19 AM
Irod & Basanlas,

thx 4 yr support!!  Irod, not trying to get into a debate, but GZFX is not a product stock.  It's a service.  I agree with you that XBOX 360 (don't forget PS3) will be huge.  But that will only affect GME, BBY, WAL & MSFT not GZFX.  The margin on games are much lower than movie (cost is at least 2x DVD), titles are less (which means everyone will want to rent the same thing = high inventory).  With no late fees, I will hold onto the game as long as I want and the turns (# of times disc being rented) will be extremely low.

I will recommend GME if you think XBOX & PS3 going to be huge (I really think they will benefit the most w/ XBOX launching and Christmas coming up).  

Anyway, the growth will take years b/c at the end of the day.  It's a service provided to a niche market.

#2
Previous 3SOF Picks / Re: Love the concept: GZFX.OB
October 25, 2005, 02:11:16 PM
This is my 1st posting, and it's not going to be a technical one (since most of you are better trader than I am).  However, I do want to share my view on the online rental industry.

I work @ a national video rental chain in Canada (as an analyst), we also have online rental services (game & movie).  Thus I work closely w/ the industry data.  There's a reason why Netflix is not in the online game business.  Because the market is very small (sort of like a niche market).  One of the top video game title this year is Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (release back in OCT 04), and the total rental revenue is ~18M (over 9 months) - a movie rental can gross that in 2 weeks.  Just for comparison sake, a top rent title can generate ~0.5M US in revenue while a top movie rental can generate at least 7-10Mill US per week.  And there are tons of more titles for movies to choice from.  Realistically, people will not play a game that is over a year old (except Pac-Man), while classic movies will always have a market.

The point I wanna bring out is the only competitive advantage that GZFX has over Netflix, Blockbuster and other online movie rentals is that they offer game rental.  However, this advantage is extremely small.  Except for Netflix, there are no other online rental business is making $$$, the cost is too high (postage, lower turnover = higher inventory cost).  GZFX does not have the titles & inventory to compete w/ NFLX & BBI.

The only potential it has is that it snatches the biggest piece of the game rental pie and hope that BBI & NFLX will takeover them in due time.

I hope this will help you guys a little :-)  Happy Trading!!