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#1
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 30, 2005, 05:10:48 PM
Nelson closed at a new recovery high.....$3.03 Canadian (last time it was this high was 1996)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NLG.TO
#2
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 28, 2005, 06:38:46 PM
The Aftermath of Katrina (thanks to Tracer on Yahoo-PKZ board)

A Category 5 hurricane, the most severe type measured, Katrina has been reported heading directly toward the city of New Orleans. This would be a human catastrophe, since New Orleans sits in a bowl below sea level. However, Katrina is not only moving on New Orleans. It also is moving on the Port of Southern Louisiana. Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy.

The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans, wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend on those exports. The United States imports crude oil, petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile.

If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out:


The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial.

There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial.

About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected.

A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher.

At a time when oil prices are in the mid-60-dollar range and starting to hurt, the hurricane has an obvious effect. However, it must be borne in mind that the Mississippi remains a key American shipping route, particularly for the export and import of a variety of primary commodities from grain to oil, as well as steel and rubber. Andrew Jackson fought hard to keep the British from taking New Orleans because he knew it was the main artery for U.S. trade with the world. He was right and its role has not changed since then.

This is not a prediction. We do not know the path of the storm and we cannot predict its effects. It is a warning that if a Category 5 hurricane hits the Port of Southern Louisiana and causes the damage that is merely at the outer reach of the probable, the effect on the global system will be substantial.







   

 


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#3
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 27, 2005, 06:11:11 PM
Michael,

Sell if you must and garner some profits, but get back in if it really starts to move.
If these numbers prove to be true....I think we can have at minimum a $6.00 Can. stock ($5.00 US)

Hope this is useful info.

Video
#4
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 27, 2005, 05:57:27 PM
Michael,


Aton: May 5 2005
Nelson Resources. Zhambai block negotiations may be wrapped up this year
Nelson Resources President Baltabek Kuandykov said yesterday the company expects to close a deal with KazMunaiGaz, Kazakhstan's state oil and gas company, to purchase 25% in the Zhambai offshore block this year, Dow Jones reported. The recoverable resources of the Zhambai block, the development of which is covered by a PSA agreement, are estimated at 6.8bn bbls of oil equivalent.

Nelson has had an option to buy a 25% stake in the project for some time and plans to convert this to equity and participate in the exploration phase. Kuandykov said the outstanding questions with KazMunaiGaz related to legal, commercial and environmental issues at Zhambai, which would be the subject of negotiations that may begin mid-month.

The news is positive for Nelson Resources as the acquisition of a 25% stake in the Zhambai block would likely raise the company to the ranks of the world's largest independent oil producers in terms of reserves and has long been seen by the market as a major catalyst for the company's stock performance.


Aton: May 17 2005
Finally, asked about negotiations on the 25% Zhambai block option (due to begin shortly), management reiterated its hope the deal would be closed this summer. CEO Nick Zana had said recently that Kazakhstan's state oil and gas company, KazMunaiGaz, has received permission from the government to extend Zhambai's license area well beyond the borders of block currently drawn. (THIS WILL GIVE US THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE OIL!!!!!)
#5
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 27, 2005, 05:25:31 PM
Michael,

Short term NLG might need a rest after a spectactular run this week.
Longer term it has a long way to go. The Zhambai field is the real
catalyst for share price growth. IF there is really 14 billion barrels with 3 to 4+ billion
recoverable, NLG can at least double or triple from here. We have about 300 million
barrels now and add our 25 % stake of Zhambai (750 mill to 1 billion) the company enters the big leagues:

Aton April 2005
The option for 25% in the South Zhambai-Zaburunye block, which is estimated to be the second largest offshore field in Kazakhstan after Kashagan, represents an additional attraction.
#6
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 26, 2005, 02:01:57 AM
From the Toronto paper(The Globe and Mail) today 8/25/05


By DAVE EBNER

Thursday, August 25, 2005 Page B5

CALGARY -- Investors hunting for the next PetroKazakhstan Inc. have set their sights on Nelson Resources Ltd., driving the oil producer's stock almost 30 per cent higher in the past three days on takeover speculation.

Like PetroKaz, Nelson is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange but operates fully in the central Asian country of Kazakhstan. Shares of Nelson took off after China National Petroleum Corp. made a $4.18-billion (U.S.) bid for Calgary-based PetroKaz, a deal announced early Monday.

"What we see is a market reaction to the runup of PetroKazakhstan," Nick Greene, Nelson's chief financial officer, said in a telephone interview yesterday from the company' office in London.

Mr. Greene said Nelson hasn't been approached by a larger suitor -- "You don't just pick up the phone and call someone and make an offer on the fly" -- but he did note that there have been a surge of calls from new investors, both institutional and retail.

"Apparently, we are relatively unknown, at least in the Canadian retail investor community," he said. "I think the calls are to ask who we are."

Although its profile in Canada is low, Nelson is well known in Europe. The company was listed on the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market last year, on which it is among the top five names by market capitalization.

Nelson's only real connection to Canada is the TSX listing, which it got in 1993 when the company was incorporated in Bermuda.

The aggressive bid for PetroKaz is "extremely positive" for other companies working in the Kazakhstan-Caspian Sea region, said Moscow brokerage Aton Capital in a report to clients on Tuesday.

Aton also said that PetroKaz shareholders will likely look at other investments in the area, and Nelson is a top candidate for new funds.

Nelson stock closed at $2.89 (Canadian) on the TSX yesterday, up 28 cents or 10.7 per cent to its highest level since the mid-1990s. It has climbed 29.6 per cent this week, and its market capitalization is now $2.5-billion, up from less than $2-billion at the end of last week.

It produces roughly 30,000 barrels of oil a day, about one-fifth of PetroKaz's productive capacity.
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#7
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 12, 2005, 07:20:54 PM
Aton looking for positive numbers:

12 August 2005, Friday
Morning Focus
Top News
Nelson Resources. Expected to report strong US GAAP results on Monday
Nelson Resources is to publish 2Q05 US GAAP results on Monday, which we expect to show a significant rise in revenue coupled with record operating cash flows, though net income is likely to be less impressive due to accounting technicalities.

We estimate that Nelson produced 2.66mn bbls net in 2Q05, double 2Q04's output and up 14% q-o-q. Oil prices rose 7% q-o-q in 2Q05, but we expect Nelson to post 29% q-o-q revenue growth on the back of a reduction in sweet/light-sour/heavy crude oil spreads in the period. Our estimate may even prove conservative if the company managed to sell crude stock accumulated at the Karakuduk field in1Q05.

Total operating expenses should increase 72% q-o-q, mostly due to the low base effect as the first quarter showed a non-cash gain in additional compensation costs. This line is volatile because it includes Nelson's management share option remuneration program and hence tracks the company's stock volatility. We expect this non-cash item to have no impact on 2Q05's total operating expenses as a small quarterly share price gain should be offset by a reduction in stock option time to expiration.

Production and transportation costs are forecast to rise in line with crude oil output growth and inflation. As a result EBITDA should rise 16% q-o-q to a record $87.5mn. Pretax income will be depressed by $12mn in expenses from the company's hedging program, which are not included in operating expenses in Nelson's accounting.

As a result, we expect net income to decline slightly on a q-o-q basis to $32mn. However, operating cash flow, our main indicator of the company's performance, should soar 34% q-o-q to a record $47mn.
Meanwhile, capex should rise significantly due to seasonal factors to $71mn in 2Q05.

Summing up, we believe our forecast may prove to be somewhat conservative and feel that the actual results will likely be ahead of consensus. We reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock with an end-2005 target price of $3.13.
Nelson Resource 2Q05 financial forecast In $mn, US GAAP 2Q04 1Q05 2Q05F Chg q-o-q Chg y-o-y
Crude oil production, bbl, mn. 1.28 2.34 2.66 14% 108%
Dated Brent, $/bbl 35.3 48.11 51.69 7% 46%
Revenue 50.0 98.5 126.6 29% 153%
Operating expenses -18.7 -22.8 -39.1 72% 109%
EBITDA 32.1 75.7 87.5 16% 173%
DD&A -9.7 -12.9 -15.0 16% 55%
EBIT 8.2 62.7 72.5 16% 782%
Pretax income 6.3 50.9 51.1 0% 715%
Net income 3.3 35.8 31.9 -11% 879%
Operating cash flow 7.9 35.1 46.9 34% 490%
Capex 29.4 23.4 71.0 203% 141%
EBITDA margin 64% 77% 69% -8% 5%
Net income margin 7% 36% 25% -11% 19%


Source: Company data; Aton estimates.

Nelson Resources 2Q05F operating costs breakdown In $mn, US GAAP 2Q04 1Q05 2Q05F Chg q-o-q Chg y-o-y
Cost of sales -6.3 -10.8 -13.7 27% 117%
G&A -8.8 -6.5 -8.3 28% -5%
Additional compensation costs 5.0 9.1 0.0 -100% -100%
Sales and transportation expenses -8.5 -14.6 -17.1 17% 100%
Total operating costs -18.7 -22.8 -39.1 72% 109%
Derivative instruments -13.4 -5.3 -11.9 124% -11%


Source: Company data; Aton estimates.

#8
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
August 11, 2005, 01:19:15 AM
From Aton today :o


Top News
Nelson Resources. Output rises 9% m-o-m in July
Nelson Resources posted a 9% m-o-m increase in crude oil production to 31.5mbpd, according to Kazakh Energy Ministry data cited by Interfax. Output was up 73% y-o-y and came in 8% above our estimated 2Q05 average, with all fields contributing to the growth.

Though a 41% m-o-m increase at North Buzachi was partly due to the installation of new processing facilities resulting in lower output in June, the 54% y-o-y increase at the field demonstrates Nelson's ability to intensify development of newly acquired assets. Karakuduk's 40% y-o-y production growth is additional evidence on this front, as the field had experienced a steady decline before Nelson's arrival in May 2004.

The news is clearly positive for the company and we expect it to be received as such by the market. We reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock with an end-2005 target price of $3.13.

Nelson Resources production comparison

In '000 bpd July 2004 June 2005 July 2005 Change, m-o-m Change, y-o-y
Kazakhoil Aktobe 22.4 29.8 30.0 1% 34%
North Buzachi 8.4 9.2 13.0 41% 54%
Karakudukmunai 7.8 10.3 10.8 5% 40%
Arman N.A. 3.2 3.7 14% N.A.
Nelson Resources net 18.2 29.0 31.5 9% 73%

Source: Interfax; Kazakh government

Video :)
#9
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
July 20, 2005, 04:28:56 AM
A very interesting article about the supply/demand of oil. This is another good reason to own Nelson. ;D

Cut and Paste:


http://321energy.com/editorials/sprott/sprott070505.html

VIDEO
#10
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
July 17, 2005, 07:00:09 PM
I use TD Waterhouse...they have an office that can trade directly on the Toronto exchange.



   

BRANCH INFORMATION

1 HARBORSIDE FINANCIAL CENTER
ANDERSON IN 46011-1015 PLAZA FOUR A
JERSEY CITY, NJ 07311-1401


CUSTOMER SERVICE: (800) 934-4448

The exchange rate is about 82% as of 7/15/05...so $2.25 Can = $1.85 US

Check on recent commissions....I know they lowered them recently if your account is big enough ($500,000+)

Good luck and WELCOME!
#11
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
July 16, 2005, 05:36:46 PM
A positive spillover from the Pkz takeover; increased production; upcoming earnings report for the June quarter and possible news on the Caspian fields have moved this baby up for the week to a close of $2.25 Can.

Comments anyone?????

Video ;D
#12
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
July 14, 2005, 04:43:21 PM
Great close today...Nlg @ a 4 month closing high of $2.27 Can. or $1.87 US equivalent.
If NLG crosses $2.55 with good volume then the next intermediate target is $3.50 Can.

Video
#13
Stock Picking / Re: NLG.TO - a value oil play
July 13, 2005, 03:25:43 PM
I have owned Nelson since 1989. I have seen it go from a movie company to a shell company to a gold miner in Tajikistan to finally an oil company in Kaz. I have a very large position in NLG and see it's potential as tremendous.

So add me to team Nelson. Michael your DD is fantastic.

Video