3SOF

Hi eggman,

I think this is because DXO closes at 4PM, while Light Crude Futures keep trading. The tracking stays correct, but due to the different trading times it may look wrong.

UYG Stopeed @ $8.65

EEM stopped @ $22

I agree with you eggman, an OPEC cutback should be here anytime... But the $70 was broke, and that invalidates my technical overview in terms of timming for a rebound in Crude.
We'll keep this one under the radar, since the rebound target should remains near $90/barrel, no matter in what level the bottom is.

regards,

DXO Stopped @ $5.65

Update:

Positive developments in SOL chart, but still inside current trading range. I'm setting a suggested stop level for now.


Trading Plan:
Hold SOL with suggested stop near $6.05

Update:

Neutral developments in Crude for now, $70/barrel is still holding. I'm setting a suggested stop level.


Trading Plan:
Hold DXO with suggested stop near $5.65

Update:

Neutral developments for now, I'm setting a suggested stop level.


Trading Plan:
Hold UYG with suggested stop near $8.65

Update:

Neutral developments for now, I'm setting a suggested stop level.


Trading Plan:
Hold EEM with suggested stop near $22

Update:

Neutral developments for now, I'm setting a suggested stop level.


Trading Plan:
Hold QLD with suggested stop near $28

Update:

Neutral developments for now, I'm setting a suggested stop level.


Trading Plan:
Hold SSO with suggested stop near $26

We are buying this pick simultaneous for both Portfolios.

Update:

SOL was a highly speculative stock not long ago when it traded near $30... right now near $7 SOL is trading at unbelievable multiples:
Current 2008e EPS estimate is $1.37 and for 2009e is $2.19, this puts SOL trading at just 3.25 times 2009 earnings (!!!), I would say the stock is no longer speculative and is a value play at these prices.

Quoting HansonWestHouse Research from their last note from a few days ago:
«SOL - Heavily discounted against the sector (8 October 2008)
The global solar sector is down by more than 45% in less than two months. In tandem with wider market atrophy, the sector has been shaken by concerns over reduced levels of subsidy in key markets and high levels of debt. We believe that both of these concerns are overplayed given that the new subsidy limits announced in Spain and Germany are considerably less severe than those proposed by conservative elements and the sector is actually modestly leveraged at present. In a peer group context, we believe that ReneSola is in strong position that is not reflected in the company's rating. We believe that this is wholly unjustified and the current share price represents a strong opportunity to buy.»

Despite the huge fundamental opportunity, this is not a fundamental play, on a rebound scenario and solely from a TA perspective, SOL has the potential to reach it's 50-ema or other upside references.

Trading Plan:
Buy SOL today, we'll be setting a stop near yesterday's lows.

Update:

SOL was a highly speculative stock not long ago when it traded near $30... right now near $7 SOL is trading at unbelievable multiples:
Current 2008e EPS estimate is $1.37 and for 2009e is $2.19, this puts SOL trading at just 3.25 times 2009 earnings (!!!), I would say the stock is no longer speculative and is a value play at these prices.

Quoting HansonWestHouse Research from their last note from a few days ago:
«SOL - Heavily discounted against the sector (8 October 2008)
The global solar sector is down by more than 45% in less than two months. In tandem with wider market atrophy, the sector has been shaken by concerns over reduced levels of subsidy in key markets and high levels of debt. We believe that both of these concerns are overplayed given that the new subsidy limits announced in Spain and Germany are considerably less severe than those proposed by conservative elements and the sector is actually modestly leveraged at present. In a peer group context, we believe that ReneSola is in strong position that is not reflected in the company's rating. We believe that this is wholly unjustified and the current share price represents a strong opportunity to buy.»

Despite the huge fundamental opportunity, this is not a fundamental play, on a rebound scenario and solely from a TA perspective, SOL has the potential to reach it's 50-ema or other upside references.

Trading Plan:
Buy SOL today (10% exposure), we'll be setting a stop near yesterday's lows.

Profile: The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, 200% of the daily return of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Oil Excess Return. The fund allows investors to take a leveraged view on the performance of crude oil. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on light sweet crude oil (WTI) and is intended to reflect the performance of crude oil.

This ETF replicates twice the daily performance of the Light Crude Futures.

Yesterday, Crude futures traded below 70$ a barrel for the first time since last year, I think this zone is a strong support and I expect a rebound with potential near $90/barrel short term.

Trading Plan:
Buy DXO today (10% exposure), we'll be setting a stop near yesterday's lows.

Update:

Following the Market Comment published today, we're opening a position in UYG today.

Trading Plan:
Buy UYG today (10% exposure), we'll be setting a stop near yesterday's lows.