3SOF

Mamma MEA!

My short got smashed by earnings

May be time to short again as it has retraced 61.8% from the low. David's chart showed the pullback from $280 high retraced to the 61.8 Fib line. This bounce has carried it up to the next 61.8 Fib line.

I don't think the current price is sustainable. FSLR has a Price/Sales ratio of 35. GOOG has a P/S of 10. AAPL's is 4.  P/E's through the roof too.  And there seems to be so many more competitors in the solar field. Eventually solar will be a commodity, won't it?

My 5/1 ARM reset a couple months ago from 5% to 6.875%. This increased my monthly payment by $175.  I'm tempted to re-fi, but I'd rather sell. However, I've read that if you list your house and it doesn't sell and you then take down your listing and try to re-fi, the banks won't do it until the listing has been down for somewhere between 3-12 months (varies by bank). So this is a risk in trying to sell if you are not successful.

If I re-fi, I don't want to pay a few thousand bucks in closing costs and then end up selling in 2008. I've read about no-cost re-fi's where they raise your rate by say a quarter point and the lender covers the closing costs. However, I'm thinking they must have something in place to prevent someone from getting a loan like that and then selling the house 3 months later, otherwise they'd lose money on the deal. Not sure, but it makes logical sense they wouldn't do a loan like that with you and then let you sell right away.

Two things to note: 
1. I'm in a fairly stable housing market (Seattle). It's a buyer's market here, but not the way it is in many other places
2. I don't want to rent my place out

What would you do? Recommendations welcome.

Shorted at $185. I think it sinks to $100 by summer.

I'm holding as a long-term carbon fiber play. Lots of applications for CF - autos, planes, wind turbines, drilling equipment. Also is an alternative energy play due to the wind power and auto/aero (lighter material makes for better fuel-efficiency) applications. Ambitious growth goals. I'll predict $200 by 2012.

I wish I could short it. Interactive Brokers lets me short a lot of stocks under $5 but looks like EEE isn't one of them. Chart says pullback to $1.50 is imminent and those fundamentals won't allow it to hold its recent gains.

Yep, it's my biggest position

Brutal month. Seems every other day the Dow's been down 100+ points. Is this the end of days? How long will the pain last? Anyone adding to positions?

Lest anyone think I'm still holding this and on a ledge somewhere looking to jump , I sold at 8.43 on 1/6, as per my trading plan to stop out below $8.50

One for the radar. Good volume on the breakout.

I respectfully disagree gentlemen, I think solar stocks have had their time in the sun  Article that is more in line with my viewpoint on solar:

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/01/03/avoid-these-awful-stocks-in-2008.aspx

I think you could go short FSLR at $280 and bag a nice return. Even if it were to run up another $100, if you held through the pain I believe you'd be in the black by year end. I predict $120 by year end for FSLR. Its 2008 PE is 133 right now for cryin' out loud. The pps tripled in the last 4 months. I don't believe the company is 3x more valuable now than it was in August. Maybe I'll put my money where my mouth is - not sure if there are shares available to short though. 

Yeah Sully, I been watching too. I'm not good at catching V bottoms like the one PEIX had.  Ethanol should get a boost from $100 oil. Maybe it will be back in vogue again this spring and summer. Also watching ADM, the 800 lb gorilla in the space, which has a nice chart. I see $60 for ADM this year.

Easy come easy go. Out at 1.19. It had a sharp intraday sell-off from 1.35 to a low at .97, now at 1.20 which may just be a bounce. Unless it's the MM's doing a hard shake to weed out weak hands, in which case they succeeded with me.

In at 9.01. CFC held up despite the market selloff, gaining six cents. Maybe no sellers are left. I'm out if it goes below 8.50. Otherwise I expect a retest of $12.

Kiss me I'm a STIYllionairre!