3SOF

Quote from: terainvestment on November 29, 2007, 05:20:26 AM

Quote from: ygtrdr on November 28, 2007, 04:40:04 PM
Weak dollar is bullish for US equities.

Weak dollar is bullish for US equities?
Sure?
I am an Italian investor, so my currency is Euro. If I invest in US stock market, my investment currency becomes US/$. Say that I invest in a US stock that in one year gains 10%. If the $ goes down 15% in that year (as it did), my total return on investment will be: 10% - 15% = - (minus) 5%

So, money flows where the currency are strong, not where are weak! :-)
The currency reflect the "state of health" of a country. Do you think that US is in good health for the long term?

Hi terrainvestment

Let me ask you this:

Do you think the sovereign wealth funds, with trillions of dollars in reserves, are going to primarily be buying expensive assets, or cheap assets? The US is on sale right now, whether that is good or bad is debatable but we are the worlds largest, most diversified economy and I have no doubts that Abu Dhabi deal with Citi is just the beginning of the large amounts of foreign reserves that will be pouring into our economy. Investment into our economy is bullish for equities. Just like in the 80's with the japanese.

Weak dollar is bullish for US equities.

Ah, good old XING. This story on this one was so promising.

Hi ket130.

I'm a bull because I feel overall the positives outweight the negatives. I've yet to see any news come out that signals a severe slowdown is in the works for our country or the world for that matter. Now I could always turn out to be wrong at any day and I remain vigilant for news that will change my mind because in this environment that sort of thing is very possible. Housing is surely in a recession but housing only makes up a small percentage of our GDP and other sectors of our economy are expanding, like exports for example.

The pundits have been screaming about Oil causing a recession since it was at 40. Here we are at 100 and the economy has absorbed every price increase well. I think this is chiefly because consumers buy gasoline and not oil by the barrel. Gasoline has remained relatively inexpensive to date.

I want to see the S&P confirm the Dow before I become bearish. The S&P is a much broader average and therefore a more reliable indicator. As well the Nasdaq has not confirmed a bearish signal either. So we have two index's that are broader than the Dow that have not turned bearish yet. I'm not putting all my bets on the Dow.

I think the worry over the dollar is overdone. Really, a weak dollar isn't that bad for Americans. Who it really hurts are the export nations we purchase goods from. Overall though the dollar's weakness hasn't impacted the day to day living of  most Americans. I  think it's more an issue of  national pride than anything.

Al-Qaida. We have been fighting them since the inception of this bull market. I don't see why I would be shorting stocks on the odd chance that they do something. Risk reward isn't worth it at all.

Lastly the Fed has shown itself to be market friendly. Don't bet against the fed and they're lowering rates. I remain bullish until something comes out that tips the balance for me but until then I will not be shorting more than just for hedges.

Good luck.

I think the S&P's are a much better indicator of the overall health of the markets than the Dow. They haven't even tested the August lows yet. A lot of people are getting bearish on this Dow Theory mumbo jumbo. This is a good thing for the bulls.

Quote from: tokyopua on November 21, 2007, 10:08:34 PM

Quote from: ygtrdr on November 21, 2007, 08:07:32 PM
Well if you follow Dow Theory we have officially entered a bear market after the close today below the August low close. Personally, I'm waiting to see what happens come monday. If we get a close below todays then I'll have to consider that we are indeed in a bear market. However, I don't buy it yet.

The way I see it we definitely get another cut before end of year. How much is the question. We have functional employment, GDP has been relatively strong and the global economy is still humming right along. Fed cuts will only pressure the dollar further so will people continue to buy bonds at these levels with a declining dollar? I doubt it and that is bullish for the markets. Just my opnion.

Happy thanksgiving to those celebrating.

Declining dollar should also be making the US market cheaper for the rest of the world to buy, which should be good for the market.

Can you elaborate a bit on how Dow theory works to call a bear market, hadnt heard of that before.

Hi Tokyopua. Dow Theory in a nutshell says that if the transports and the industrials make new highs and do not penetrate previous important lows then we are in an uptrend. Conversely if both the transports and industrials penetrate previous important lows then we are in a bear market. The transports broke the previous lows earlier in the week and the industrials violated the support levels today.

However I reamain skeptical for a couple reasons. This is a holiday week so I want to see how the markets act next week when we have a full trading week. The S&P has not followed the Dow yet so we have a divergence of the two indexes and the Q's still haven't confirmed a bear either. I also am bullish on the Fed. Helicopter Ben won't allow deflation.

Well if you follow Dow Theory we have officially entered a bear market after the close today below the August low close. Personally, I'm waiting to see what happens come monday. If we get a close below todays then I'll have to consider that we are indeed in a bear market. However, I don't buy it yet.

The way I see it we definitely get another cut before end of year. How much is the question. We have functional employment, GDP has been relatively strong and the global economy is still humming right along. Fed cuts will only pressure the dollar further so will people continue to buy bonds at these levels with a declining dollar? I doubt it and that is bullish for the markets. Just my opnion.

Happy thanksgiving to those celebrating.

My tone wasn't impolite. I'm sorry you got offended but I didn't say anything for you to get worked up over. Relax.

Quote from: capricho on November 21, 2007, 12:45:39 PM
The last time I checked 3SOF is not a store and it does not sell products. It's a message board in which members share ideas and information. And I don't recall Leaira saying that the other website was 'better' than 3SOF.

Doesn't sell a product? I've got news for you bud, information is a product. And yes, it is a store. One without walls which is exactly why spamming is such a problem on the internet. People do things on the web they would never do in real life.

Well I also own my own business and I would never tolerate someone walking into my store and advertising the compeition. I doubt most other business owners would either.

Capricho, have you ever owned your own business? I'm guessing not. How would you feel if someone walked into your store and started telling customers about another place down the way that is better? Rubbish.

Thanks for the analysis David. I'm still a bull as well but these past days have been very hard to watch!

Applaud. Thanks David.

Where's the next major support for this one? 16? I want to buy but am hesitant. Thanks.

Yes, David has been a wonderful resource for me as well. Because of him (and the many other valuable members on this site) I had the courage and conviction to go from %80 cash to %100 stocks on that key reversal day back in when the Dow rallied from -500 to close relatively flat on the day. This was shortly after I had gone to mostly cash because things looked toppy.

I would be kicking myself now if I had let the fear rule my decision process and stayed in a money market account; but instead I'm happy as a pig in slop and crushing the market returns for the year.