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Messages - jrtabor

#1
Stock Picking / Re: The best shipping company: TBSI
February 24, 2008, 02:30:13 PM
Good news for TBSI as all 40 of its vessels are the Handymax size.  March should be an exceptionally good month.

Handymax rates to rocket in March as cargoes build
Jamie Dale - Friday 22 February 2008

ATLANTIC handymax freight rates are likely to "really rocket" for March loading dates as the prompt ships are almost cleared out, writes Jamie Dale.

The Atlantic market saw healthy volumes of ships available for February cargoes in the last two weeks but many are now employed, opening the door to a firmer looking March.

"The prompt ships are looking softer, I think that you will see a clear out of these at lower levels," a London broker told Lloyd's List.

"Then I think you will see March ships looking like they will pick up some bigger levels."

The broker added that availability of cargoes to soak up the vessels will not be a problem.

"There are plenty of cargoes for US Gulf to Japan, plus there is looking likea real build-up of scrap on the US east coast to Turkey for mid-March," the broker said.

"In east coast South America and Brazil there is plenty of iron ore, pig iron and grain, so I think you will see [levels for] the March dates really rocket."

The broker noted that the last "biggie" fixed in east coast South America went for $56,500 per day plus $800,000 ballast bonus for a trip toward the Pacific.

However, the broker added that owners in east coast South America are already claiming to see interest at $70,000 per day plus $1m ballast bonus.

In west Africa rates for a Baltic Exchange tess 52 index type vessel are around the $61,000 per day mark.

"I think you will have to watch thismarket next week, this is when you will really see it go because the February ships in west Africa have almost cleared out with just a few knocking about on the Continent, but once they have gone we will see rates go up," said the London broker.

"Do not expect too much action on the indices this week, but watch next week and March dates. Be prepared!"

In the Pacific Basin this week many owners appear to have got carried away with the rapidly-rising short period rates and "have priced themselves out of the market", according to ICAP Hyde.

"Index type tonnage rating in the mid-low $60,000s has scared off charterers who are quite happy to sit back and watch for the time being unless they have spot backhaul requirements to cover with short period tonnage," added the Londonbrokerage in its daily report.

The report noted that some Far Eastern owners have started to ease their levels slightly after realising that their "over zealous" rates are off the mark in view of the reduced period sentiment.

ICAP Hyde noted that vessels fixed for Pacific round voyages are able to achieve above $50,000 per day, for both shorter nickel ore trips and the longer rounds out of the North Pacific.

The Indian coasts remain firm with a 45,000 dwt vessel open on the west coast reported to be fixing on subjects for a trip to the east in the mid $50,000s.
#2
Stock Picking / Re: The best shipping company: TBSI
January 16, 2008, 05:28:32 PM
David,
What are your thoughts regarding this article?
TradingMarkets.com
Four Shipping Stocks for Investors to Avoid
Wednesday January 16, 10:22 am ET
By TradingMarkets Research


Many observers have come to believe that shipping stocks are uniquely positioned to help investors determine whether or not the global economy is strong or weak. So what does it mean if four shipping stocks have made our list of stocks that investors would do better to do without?
ADVERTISEMENT


Whether or not the markets eventually lead us into what I've dubbed the World's Most Anticipated Recession, stocks with lower PowerRatings are stocks that investors should avoid. Not only do low PowerRatings stocks, based on our research, tend to underperform compared to the average stock. But stocks with the lowest PowerRating actually produced negative returns on average one year later.

Let's look a little closer at the situation for investors owning low PowerRatings stocks. The average stock, based on our research looking at thousands and thousands of simulated trades since 1995, has been higher one year later as much as 68% of the time. By "average stock" I'm referring to stocks with PowerRatings from 4 to 7.

Stocks with PowerRatings of 2, by comparison, have been higher one year later approximately 41.5% of the time -- well below a 50/50 chance. Stocks with the lowest PowerRating of 1 are even less reliable when it comes to being higher after one year. Our research reveals that 1-rated stocks have been higher one year later less than 35% of the time.

In addition to the relative unreliability of low PowerRatings stocks, those stocks' capacity to underperform is pronounced. While the average stock has been higher, on average, between 12 and 13% after one year, stocks with PowerRatings of 2 have averaged a gain of less than 8% after a year's time. 1-rated stocks, believe it or not, have actually averaged a negative 5.08% after one year.

Now that you know why you want to avoid low PowerRatings stocks, here are a few from the shipping business that are clearly names investors should steer clear of. Ironically, as a group, the Shipping industry remains highly rated with a PowerRating of 8. But when it comes to a showdown between industry groups and stocks, investors are ultimately paid on the performance of stocks. So, until further notice, we defer to the relatively low PowerRatings of the some of the individual (and best known) stocks in shipping.

First up is TBS International (NasdaqGS:TBSI - News). This stock has a PowerRating of 1, making it a stock to run-not-walk away from for the vast majority of investors. TBS International has a P/E of 7.60 and is trading at the lower end of its 52-week price range from a high of $71.15 to a low of $8.10. The company provides both integrated logistics and ocean transportation services including liner, parcel, bulk and vessel chartering.



Another 1-rated stock, Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE:DSX - News) trades at approximately 11 times earnings and is in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $45.15 to $15.71. Diana Shipping, Inc. is an Athens, Greece-based shipping company that specializes in ocean transport of dry bulk cargoes.

One of the signature stocks in the shipping industry is Dryships (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News). In addition to having a PowerRating of 2, Dryships is trading in the lower half of its 52-week price range from $131.34 to $16.85 and has a P/E of 6.10.

Dryships is a Greek shipping company that owns and operates carriers for the transport of drybulk commodities ranging from coal and iron ore to grains and fertilizers. Headquartered in Greece, the company is widely expected to blow away its 2007 earnings in 2008.



Our last shipping stock to avoid is Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM - News), with a PowerRating of 2. Excel Maritime Carriers owns and operates dry bulk carriers, providing seaborne transport of cargoes such as iron ore and grains. The company is based out of Athens, Greece.

Excel Maritime Carriers has a P/E of 9.20 and, like the other shipping stocks in this article, is trading closer to its 52-week low of $14.57 than it is to its 52-week high of $81.99.

David Penn is Senior Editor at TradingMarkets.com

#3
Stock Picking / Re: The best shipping company: TBSI
January 04, 2008, 03:24:15 PM
David,
Does it concern you the dry baltic index has fallen almost 20% in the past few weeks?    Probably the reason the stock has fallen so much.
#4
Stock Picking / Re: The kind that I want: VPHM
February 03, 2006, 11:06:26 AM
David,
First time posting on 3stocksonfire...just thought I'd comment on why analyst are showing EPS decreasing to $.25 for 1st qtr '06.  Assuming $38.7M in vancocin revenue for the 1st qtr, VPHM will do about $.32 EPS even with the additional 10.4M new shares.  Regarding the low 1st qtr EPS forecast, I believe the analyst are expenseing the $4.5M VPHM agreed to pay Lilly in case C-Diff became an epidemic in '06 and they needed more production of the drug.  I believe Viropharma will capitalize this cost as part of the acquisition of Vancocin and thus no real impact on EPS.
I follow this company very closely and I can tell you for a fact the $1.10 the analyst are forecasting for '06 is grossly understated and I'll tell you why.  Currently, the past 6 months scripts for vancocin are running over 30% higher than the prior year month.  On top of this many followers think a large price increase (20-25%) in vancocin will be announced any day now.  (I've talked to the company directly about this possibility and they've told me they are well aware vancocin is still underpriced compared to other life saving durgs).  The company now has about $175M in cash with no debt, so you can expect an announcement soon of a drug or company acquisition.  Along with these positives there will also be an announcement in the 1st qtr '06 of their durg Maribavir, going into phase III testing.  Given these developments along with the development of their Hepititus C drug, there is much upside to this story.
I personnally believe we will see this stock appreciate to $35 or more this year.  Insiders are still buying...last one at $21...so they believe there is upside.  Best of luck to all of you and... thanks David for your keen technical insight.
#5
Stock Picking / Re: The kind that I want: VPHM
February 03, 2006, 10:20:42 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on February 03, 2006, 06:19:46 AM
Quote from: kman on February 02, 2006, 01:34:02 PM
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.

Yes, probably it was that, thanks for the info kman  :)

That may also explain why analysts expect revenue growth for 2006 of 30% and EPS growth of only 6.8%. It is a good thing such dilution is already expected, this way the company has the power to surprise on the upside, if it doesn't dilute earnings at all.

We'll see ... I'll continue holding VPHM.