3SOF

Looks great!
GigaMedia Q2: Record Operating Results
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070814/hktu004.html?.v=61

Ray

Big boys have to get their shares first and then they'll let it run up over the next couple of weeks.
Ray

Check out the new ad for Hellgate on youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyBKtsfDq5k


Don't know about the dancing girls though........ouch!

Wow, some interesting points.  I've been here for about 2 years and things have changed a lot around here as far as strategy.  However, I have always felt as though David has his and our best interests in mind.  He follows his gut and experience as the market and its multiple personalities present themselves.  He has character, which is why I have remained a member.

When I first got here it was about day trading, swing trading and market timing.  I still see glimmers of it.  Like the other day with SILC earnings call.  David correctly called that it would drop after earnings but using his new long term strategy he held anyway to not lose his position.  2 years ago he would have sold in the morning and watched it drop with satisfaction and then watched it to reenter.  Even today, a week later, he could have gotten back in for less money but there is no way of knowing that.  With NVTL, David also held through earnings even though it seemed it might be overextended.  But NVTL kept going up and so in this case David was a genius.  It's all 20/20 hindsight but I appreciate the concept of a consistent stategy.

Here's where I have a problem and can kind of see what Buddjas1 and Yukiii are talking about.
Beginning of March David passionately went short the market and gave a huge defense for it.  He sold me and I went short along with him with IBN and FMCN.  Then 2 weeks later in one day slammed on the brakes and said he was a long again.  Thank God I was watching day to day to catch this or I would have been caught.  I actually covered my shorts with a very small profit.

I place a lot of trust in your initial analysis so often times I am caught off-guard by your quick 180's.  The biggest problem I think you have David is that sometimes you leap too fast and before you have all the information you need to really make a truly confident decision.  These erratic 180's also occur with many of your long purchases as well.  Let me give examples.

CPNE, according to your initial analysis is a 15-30 bagger with great long term potential.  Within a week we all find out it's a sucker stock with too high a churn rate and the stock tanks.  In fact, it really sells just a bunch of crap.  I'm sure a little more digging could have revealed this.  If I had been on vacation after I bought into your initial analysis that I trusted I would be down 50%.  Actually I was up and then ended up losing all profits and taking a 15% loss.

SYX was given all the glory to be at least over 60 bucks but you had a short term target of 30 you passed on.  I sold at 27.17 and made 60% so I'm not complaining too badly but when you posted your iniital analysis it was a long term hold because sales were going crazy.  It now sits at 16.68, 27 cents below where I bought it.  We later found out they were selling a lot but marking down even more, killing margins.  Your analysis didn't consider this possibility and ignored the tremendously high complaint rate the company enjoys. 

GOAM is another you jumped into before you knew the whole picture.  We made money on it but those of us that jumped in know it was really lucky we got out when we did because after digging deeper you saw it had very limited potential and subsequently dropped below our purchase price. 

On April 15th, JASO was a great long term hold that with an "optimal selling price" of 73.12 and 3 year price projection of 114.  This made me and I'm sure many others very excited.  Cool, I buy in at 25 and change.  On April 16th you called it a sure thing.  One week later you do "some more digging" and find a document that was available before your initial analysis that has the correct amount of outstanding shares.  Uh oh I'm getting nervous.... but at least your new optimal selling price is still pretty good a 42 bucks.  A week later you realize your 120% rev growth projection is way too high since it was linked (maybe) to the incorrect # of outstanding shares and POOF! the optimal selling price is now 14 bucks!!!!  Two weeks ago I was going to buy this company at 25 bucks and sell it in 3 years for 114.  Now it's gone in 2 weeks and I made a hundred bucks.  Talk about a whirlwind of emotions. 

BLFY is another that you gave up on that you planned on holding for the long term but sold after a small loss and a couple of months of single penny moves.  I have to admit it was like watching grass grow.   

Now I am sounding negative but everything I wrote is factual and only meant to point out my opinion of how things can be improved.  Like Yukiii wrote, I think you are often too optimistic, not digging deep enough in your initial analysis to find some of the things that later show your initial analysis or maybe more importantly, your initial enthusiasm to be misplaced.  There must be a better litmus test to back up your picks so that there is a chance of adhering to your long term philosophy.  The philosophy is sound, it's your picks that have not always been.  It seems that there must be a longer watch period so the stocks can prove themselves.  If they are truly long term winners they can be watched a little longer without missing out on much.  Maybe create a watch list.  Just looking, no touching!!  Some of these startup companies with weak or okay balance sheets and seemingly great potential have been killing us with dilution.  Weed these out or watch them.  Just don't buy them yet.  Meanwhile, concentrate on some proven winners like GIGM and NVTL (my only holdings right now) until you can add more solid picks to them.
Then on the ON FIRE portfolio you can satisfy your swing trading crowd with more of a technical analysis of companies with good fundamentals.    You are talented in capturing short term moves within the chart of a long term hold..... and let's face it......it's fun.   Maybe allocate a smaller portion of you total assets to this portfolio.  You can lock in profits after a healthy gain and accept small short term losses because you know you aren't banking on this portfolio for your long term appreciation (this is what you more rock solid main portfolio would be doing long term).  Swing trading does seem to be in high demand here and I think it can keep you sharp.

I didn't realize how much I was going to type until I got started but the bottom line is that David is good but he could be even better and this site could be better.  I think he would be the first to say this himself and that is why I feel comfortable writing this.  It is David's honest effort and character that will keep me a member for the long term.  Ray

Sorry David,
That was actually the point of posting them.  The guy who posted the summaries said he sometimes finds articles released only in the chinese media and translates them for the yahoo board to help those of us who don't speak or read chinese.  Of course he portrays himself as a long just trying to help.  His disposition doesn't seem malicious since in subsequent postings he felt the info wasn't actually bad, but instead cleared up some things about the impending mahjong release.  The info SEEMED credible but I have been unable to find the articles in english. 
I was posting the info to see if maybe someone else here had run across the same info or if you had, seeing that you often find info that is new to me.  Thanks!!  Ray

Hey David,  I saw this posted on the yahoo board by sfhiddendragon.  The poster got the 2 articles from yahoo-chinese and translated them with the following summaries.  I wondered what you might think about it.  Thanks, Ray
#1. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...

This article is about why the Xbox360 Mahjong game got delayed. It basically said that a lot of Asian game developers(mostly from TW and SK) are having some problems while transforming from PC/online game developers to XBOX games providers. And MSFT is holding a meeting with these companies in HK now to solve the problems. In term of our funtown, according to the article, since this Mahjong game will target the global market, MSFT said they don't wnat any "gambling feel," so instead of using the virtual money(funtown golden coins), they ask funtown to charge users based on the Time they play. Funtown is adjusting their software, should be ready later this year.

#2. http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a...

This is about funtown has to compensate their members for about 8m NTD(about 240k+ USD) due to an operational mistake at their horse racing game on March 22nd.

Institutional Investors Purchase 4.8 Million Shares of Common Stock From a Major Shareholder and Members of Managemen

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070213/latu132.html?.v=42

Hey David,
What do you make of this?  Thanks, Ray

Very nice, broke 6.35 with a lot of room overhead to move.  I feel there is a lot of whispers about a sudden influx of cash to New Orleans.  Funny what happens when the politicians get embarrassed nationally.  Obviously the fact of 5 insider buys in the last week (including 25000 at 5.92 yesterday by F. Fradella) shows that they certainly feel good about where HSOA is heading.  Ray

What's up with the 363 share trade at 4.51 after hours?  Down a $1.15!  Someone trying to create a scare?  Ray

Very strong on a bad day for the market Friday.  I think spurred on by four insider buys in the last week which I think was spurred on by the road homes money finally coming in strong.  I think this will have a significant impact on the current quarter's revenues and put a lot of unkowns and questions about management to bed.  Up almost 20% in the last 10 days it seems that longs are starting to wrestle this away from the shorts with over 13 mil shares to cover.  This could get interesting if any PR comes out clarifying specific figures rolling into New Orleans.  I feel HSOA has a solid company in place to snatch up a lot of this money.  IMO

Hi David, thanks for the analysis but a few things were incorrect although it probably wouldn't change your opinion.  So far the made .33 cents on the year and the only estimate I could find was for 58 cents for the year making the 4th quarter need to be .25 cents.  The company just reconfirmed their yearly number target of 56 to 60 cents saying that this next quarter will be their best ever.  They missed estimates this quarter of .20 cents but they never gave quarterly guidance. 
     Their latest 2 acquisitions of Fireline and Associated Contractors has allowed them to  guide for 200M revs next year with 30% annual growth giving them a forward PE of 6.5.  The higher receivables seems to be normal for a company taking on large government contracts that deal with rebuilding the New Orleans area (money comes in slowly but it comes in!!).  To control this issue they were recently approved by a conglomerate of banks for 60 M in credit (giving a great deal of credibility to their future prospects IMO) as well as the latest 25 M surety bonds.
    It seems to me they are seizing a great opportunity to grab a whole lot of work rebuilding in the wake of Katrina while growing a monster of a company (through smart acquisitions) that can have a real permanence in the area.  Not to mention slowly branching out to neighboring states and increasing their exposure into additional Home Depot stores, etc.
     As far as a 1 dollar stock price that would give them a forward PE of 1.3.  Seems crazy to me but the shorts certainly seem to have a strangle hold on this one.  Ray