3SOF

Hello G,

NDOL continues to move up.  Getting close to the first resistance that you identified yesterday of .30.

Dez

Hello G,

NDOL has broken out on fundamental news with plenty of volume.
Where do you see upside resistance?

Dez

Gambler,

Let me return the favor for the triple I made on an options play in SVA a few weeks back.  You brought that quick trade to my attention.  Here you go -
Time to get some NDOL.

Dez

Hello G,

I agree that the DJIA may be in a topping area.  SharpCharts candle stick pattern shows the 113 area was rejected three times.  The RSI is overbought at 70 and rolling over.  The 50 DMA is at 109.50 and that leaves a lot of room for a short sharp correction to the 11,000 area on the Dow.  I have a 50 contract short position on the DIAPG April 111 puts entered at .60

In addition todays Feb. existing home sales data may not be representative of the NEW housing market.  That data will be released tomorrow.  However in the mean time the hosuing stocks jumped higher today in a falling trend.  Tomorrows data may be more accurate to gage buyer interest in the face of building housing supply, a rising interest rate environment and going in to next weeks Fed interest rate increase.  So I took a short position in the HGX today by purchasing the May HGXQN puts entered at 9.80 per contract.

Let's see what Friday's data and Monday's market bring.

Dez

Hello G,

Could you comment on a position in the DIA puts.  The short term market seems headed down.  Technically, how much of a drop is ahead, short term?

Dez

Gambler,

Thanks for identifying SVA.  I checked the technicals at 4.07 and they said a rally was in the offing.  I bought 52 Apr 5 calls at .15 cents.  Sold all 52 contracts into yesterdays high at
.55.  That was a quick 366% in three days.  Keep up the good work.

Dez

PS Big sell off in SVA today ......... but what else is new.

Applying the Fibonacci retracement analysis to the plunge today indicates the following.

The recent run from 2.03 up todays high of 5.02 was breathtaking to watch but the inevitable correction occurred.  The folllowing are fibonacci support levels.

62%   -   $3.87
50%   -   $3.52
38%   -   $3.16

Looks to me that the bottom should be in, give or take a nickle.

Same evaluation from the previous advance from $1.40 up to $2.75 indicated a retracement to the 38% level of $2.01.  That level held and a new advance began.  On these type heavy corrections I like to use the three day rule.  Wait three days and buy.  I closed out today at $4.77 and entered at $2.03

Vic,

For now 5 seems to be the wall. 

The last sell off dropped the price to 4.77.  And bounced.  Might use that as a mental stop.  Lots of L2 sells came in at 4.80 right away.  116000 shares in one block.  Well bless it's little heart GNBT bounced back and ate that overhead supply right up and then proceeded to go back to 4.94 and STOPPED. 

Second sell-off in the works right now.  $4.83 as I type. So lets see what gives.
Going in to Thursday and Friday the day traders like to take profits so that is another consideration.  If we don't get a sell off by Friday I would say the sky is the liimit for next week.

Setravis,

Was today a blow-off top?  With all the volume in the last week it is going to be awful for the stock price if everyone heads for the exit at the same time.  And speaking of volume - there are 33 million shares of stock float and GNBT traded more than that today alone ! ???Worrisome?

The overall market is now entering a corrective phase in up trending market.  Can this stock buck the downtrending market momentum?  Will it run flat?

On the positive side - pull up a monthly chart of CEP, another Canadian stock.  What if we are looking at the first stages of another CEP?  And of course we can look forward to more Pr's, perhaps some Federal Funding, additional acceptance of Oral-Lyn around the country and more general positive movement in the bird flu stocks.  All of which will support/boost the stock.


The investment business is definitely an Art and not a Science.  So what to do now?  Evaluate tomorrows first pullback for weakness or strength, then scale back in with an eye for quick profits unless and until a confirmed new breakout above todays high of 4.49.  Support at 3.93 is important and hopefully not tested but if it is then the 3.55 to 3.62 level should be the next logical support. 

Traders like to take their profits on Thursday and Friday so tomorrows high should hold until next week or a new PR.  All of this is something to think about tonight.

RV,

A typo.  My eye teeth got in front of my fingers and I could not see the keyboard. Of course $3.75 was intended.  HOD so far is 3.77.  In any case keep an eye on SVA for a possible jump. 

Stock2Watch2,

Excellent trade for you.  In my previous post I expected this run to reach 2.75, from 1.40, based on the G-Pattern.  Today's high was 2.75 , of course the day is not over yet.  It is trading once again at 2.75.  I sold into this rally also.  An excellent trade for me also. $$$$$$

Yesterday I purchased 52, SVA April 5 call options at .15cents while the stock was at 4.07.  Shortly after the stock price run began and more price increase followed again today reaching 4.90.  The option traded at .50

Tonight at 8pm EST the company holds a conference call with perhaps news worthy items concerning bird flu activities at the company. A nice pop tomorrow is not out of the question.  Perhaps GNBT will rest a few days and the SVA will pick up the pace.  Technically SVA is ready to run hard. 

GNBT is a buy once again on a pullback.

Mexirafa

2.40 is a good stop.  However this stock is displaying a G-Pattern. 

The last G-Pattern ran 1.35 cents from 1.40 to 2.75 before a correction back to 2.00
A repeat price pattern would take it to 3.75 with only minor 10 and 20 cent pull backs along the way.

I feel this is a special situation where the stock may be on the verge of a mania price run due to the media hype, factual reports of infected birds from around the globe and Oral Insulin gaining widespread acceptance for Diabetics.  As you know there was a PR Newswire report today concerning Mexico.

Volume was heavy today and the after hours price did not waver one iota. And right now this news has been released from Russia:

30,000 bird-flu deaths in south Russia in last 24 hours - ministry
10:25 | 16/ 03/ 2006
Print version

ROSTOV-ON-DON, March 16 (RIA Novosti, Sergei Rudkovsky) - More than 30,000 birds have died of bird flu in southern Russia over the last 24 hours, a local emergencies ministry official said Thursday.

"In Krasnodar Territory, 21,912 chickens have died over the last 24 hours, and the total number of dead birds has reached 350,288," the official said.

A further 10,818 birds have died over the last 242 hours in the North Caucasus republic of Daghestan, the official said, bringing the total including culled birds to 760,000.

A third wave of bird flu struck Russia starting February 3. The country's southern regions, where all cases in the country have so far been registered, are particularly vulnerable as a stopover for migrating birds. A vaccination program is currently underway in many of the country's regions.

No human deaths from bird flu have so far been registered in Russia.

Tomorrow looks promising.  This may be worthy of consideration for the 3SOF Porfolio.

Looks like we caused an order imbalance.  Hard time opening the stock! 

Setravis: 

This has peaked my interest enough to take a position this afternoon.  Here it is, a slow week with many MM's gone for the holiday.  In addition the market mood is negative and this issue has been in a downtrend, oversold with poor volume .... and now this.  A spike in volume on no news, on the last trading day of the year.  If not the MM's then who is providing the volume?  And of course why?  A new order, a new infusion of capital, a new product, a new change in management? It certainly is an interesting speculation.  Interesting enough for me to take a position and wait around for the first week of the new year for some follow thru.  We just came thru a 23,000 share sell order at 3:10 pm only to recover in less than 20 minutes to the 3.60 level.  Yes very curious indeed.  Thanks for catching this one Setravis and by all means enjoy the New Year celebration.

I entered with David at 14.33.  Exit price was at 16.14.  Triggered by the pullback from the high of 16.80.  Just lucky, not bragging.  I am so sorry to see this large drop in price (for all our 3SOF members ) that came out of left field due to the news release.  I moved the funds to AUY at 5.25.  This issue should be able to gain back the loss on Ford.  You may have noticed the takeover plays in the metal  sector recently.  Companies with 2 & 2 ( thats 200,000 ozs of production and 2 million ozs in reserves move to the takeover list for the larger companies that cannot find reserves.  AUY just entered the 400,000 oz production arena and the operations in South America ( primarily in Brazil ) are top shelf money makers.  Ford can be just a stumble on the road to better profits.