3SOF

Hello subscribers,
I'd like to ask you to explain me and give me advice about this service and my decision about further subscription. When I look at the performance of MAIN I see horrible money management and bad technical entries and exits. SP is about 6 % down and MAIN about 27 %. I don't see any market edge in this service now. Furthermore David sometimes violates his own money management rules like in case of IMMR. What I have learned? Do not trust advisers, they care only about your money. Where is David? 

Sorry for bothering,

I bought some shares

Me too

I bought 200 shares  for 3.40

Dilution ?
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5227735

I have much to learn 

I sold something for 5.95

This is worth looking at 

http://blacklistednews.com/view.asp?ID=3942

Quote from: Garoh on August 10, 2007, 07:30:40 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on August 10, 2007, 06:34:39 AM
ALDN shouldn't have fallen 5.5% yesterday. My love affair with the stock will take a pause, because now I think it will head down to close the gap at $17.15, due to an earnings multiple contraction.

The trading plan for ALDN is SELL.

Yes David now you'er doing the right thing 

I already got out of the stock yesterday at $21.21 , the chart is really ugly now indicating a more drop in the stock's price ..


Good job David

I sold yesterday too 

From Yahoo message board:

- On July 9, 2007 announced surprised the street by announcing that its ecost division will post $26 M in revenues in Q2 2007, a 19.25% revenue growth from Q1 2007.

- In a previous CC management estimated that with its new cost structure, eCOST would be profitable when it reached $25M in revenues.

- In Q1 2007 PFSW predicted EBITDA of $8 to $10M for 2007. PFSW reported $2.5M EBIDA for 2006. This is a 300% to 400% improvement!!!

- In Q1 2007 PFSW reported EBITDA of $0.8M

- Based on the above, PFSW will have to average about $2.5M for 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q 2007.

- If PFSW reports a EBITDA of $2.5M for 2Q 2007 on August 14, 2007 it will beat 2Q 2006 by a wide margin. In fact, PFWS might report its first profit in several quarters.

- PFSW 2Q 2006 reported a EBITDA loss of $0.7M due mostly to the very poor eCOST performance a revenue dropped and losses increased significantly. Net loss was $3.2M!!!

eCOST has been the main reason why PFSW has performed so poorly as a stock since it was acquired. PFSW has done an amazing job of turning around this division around as evidenced by the sequential improvement of the last 2 quarters.

The eCOST turnaround is due to improvements in several fronts including customer service, product selection, more efficient marketing, etc.. The turnaround is very timely as the strongest season for this division, the Holiday season, is right in front of us.


PFSW generates about $450M/year in revenues and its market cap is only $46M!.

Fair value has been estimated to be $6 based on comparables is PFSW can return to consistent profitability.

PFSW has a solid balance sheet and solid fundamentals. I expect that it will be trading North of $3 after Christmas. Even at $3, PFSW would still be trading at a deeply discounted P/S of about 0.3.

Quote from: BigSully1 on August 10, 2007, 01:34:00 AM

Quote from: TraderStar on August 09, 2007, 11:50:13 PM
Guess I will add my 2 cents here :-) 

I've rarely encountered anyone with more savvy than David in picking small cap stocks with potential to give big returns.
But the timing for entry ... often has room for improvement. 
Much of the time it's like .. "I've found another good one, let's buy on open tomorrow".
And the chart is screaming ... "not yet!!" 

Picking winning stocks may be the most important component of wealth-building, but it is not the only one.  There are 2 others:  timing of entry and timing the market.
Since the Dow hit 14k, there were numerous signs of failure at least in the short term.  Profits should have been taken in all holdings and new entries postponed until the best setups once again present themselves.
NGA for example ...why not exit at the first close below the 50 sma .. or the second one at latest... then sit back in the weeds & watch.  The market fell apart & so did NGA.  Now it just bounced on its 200 sma, so maybe there's a new entry down here ..
Take profits at $9 and re-invest at $5.64 with a really tight stop .. what's wrong with that? 

I think it would work out better to be trading these great picks ..  not just buy & blindly hold on, come what may.

You don't need charts that look like the blueprints for the New York subway system 
... just a couple of moving averages, stochastics, volume .. a few simple indicators are enough because we already know the stocks are fundamentally sound and will eventually run ... like TBSI for example

David Elliott of Wall Street Teachers is an excellent market timer and has some basic technical timing indicators he uses (he also has more complex ones for those who want to daytrade fast & furious!).  He just did a web presentation for Options University on these simple proprietary indicators which should be available for the next few days at least: 
http://www.options-university.com/Webinars/DavidElliott/index.html

I watched it last night & it reminded me again of how important it is to enter your trade at the right time ... like in real estate, you make your profit when you buy your house .. if you pay the right price. 

In any case, it's up to each of us to manage our own account .. those with small accounts need to be stricter than those blessed with large ones .. the latter can often just set & forget because they can weather the downtrends.  But I think we would all make more money faster if we factored chart timing and market timing into the purchase decision ..
there are times when it may be better to just be in cash .. waiting for the next good entry points to set up.

Maybe others would like to share their favorite timing indicators in the General discussion.   

Applause, TraderStar. I agree with you 100%, and that is what I always wanted from the site. Watch the market leading, fundamentally superior stocks, but only buy when time is right such as when breaking out of sound base on volume and other indicators  (possibly buying while still basing, before a breakout or buying at other strategic points )instead of buying overextended and hoping for the best. There is also no reason to hold when everything points to a large decline or if the trade just doesn't work out. There's nothing wrong with being in cash for awhile while awaiting another trade, there will always be more. Other things to consider are the overall market, and sector performance, what are performing best-large,mid,or small cap. I do have to commend David for outperforming the Russell 2000 this year so far. Didn't mean to be too critical of him, and I know he works hard and is well intentioned. It's just that the site is not fulfilling my expectations for trading and learning tthe technical side.

Anyway, I really hope something constructive comes from this discussion, GL to all. I think I get cut off today.

I absolutely agree - better timing is necessary to earn money and stop loss too.

I don´t know what think about 3SOF performance Index up, 3SOF down

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I don´t know what to think about 3SOF performance  this year. SP500 fall down today -1.63 % and main -2.29 %. There are the same manners of nearly all 3SOF holding over last week –  3SOF was always worse than index? Maybe it is time to modify buying/selling strategy. IMMR was totally overbought at time of purchase. I suggest better timing as you did in PFSW. What about ZERO COST BASIN? Selling enough shares to recoup all of your initial investment, while leaving your profits invested in the stock for the long-term or reduce amount of stock before earnings or when the stock is overbought? What about 3SOF stock performance statistic - gain/loss after earnings?  I know patience is necessary. Have a great weekend.


Look at the chart of SDS. Bears are going to rule for the rest of the year.

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1022652.htm

This is the reason?