3SOF

I shorted today @ $86.40

I cannot explain a P/E of 115 for an online retailer

Fundamentals always win for the long run!

Took a very small (long) position at 33-34 cents

Quote from: stock-kitty on May 04, 2007, 08:59:34 AM
...  and some very interesting compounds in development which imo have the potential for a breakthrough therapy.


Cheers

Don't count on their pipeline THAT much. It is not so easy to recruit patients to PCa clinical trials. It will be tougher with Provenge (DNDN) in the market. Therefore, if Provenge is approved, CEGE is a very quick play. I am still in (small position).

Please search my prior posts and see that I am a VALUE investor and not a trader.

That being said:

I think that CEGE is a very interesting play at this point based on DNDN/Provenge. If the FDA approves Provenge (could be any day thru May 15) - CEGE will technically pop like all other "cancer vaccine" companies.

If the FDA doesn't grant approval to DNDN, CEGE, its main competitor, will also gain since Provenge will then be postpones to 2010, and CEGE (whose trials are SUPPOSED to end by 2010) may have a chance to bit DNDN as the first to market. So this is a VALUE play.


So ... on top of my large DNDN position (holding over 2 years), I have added a much smaller CEGE position for a short term play.

Comments will be appreciated.

Quote from: pompano on March 29, 2007, 09:58:58 PM
I would say around $10 but I'm just pulling that out of the sky.  Long term though, why would you not want to be in this stock.  What man isn't gonna want that vaccine.  I am gonna buy DNDN for my IRA, and just forget about it.

As I have posted a couple of times before, DNDN is the REAL DEAL.

Not sure why DNDN and CTIC's threads have combined.

DNDN is heading to $50 within a year IF approved (95% chance following yesterday's conference) based on basic fundamentals. Could hit $100 a year later if they increase their manufacturing capacity. The only potential competitor, CEGE, is AT LEAST 3 yrs behind.

DNDN is the real deal!

More STELLAR Clinical News from DNDN:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061110/sff019.html?.v=72

There is no question that earlier Provenge is better than later Provenge but later Provenge is better than no Provenge.

Also, the difference between Crossovers+Taxotere and Pure Placebo+Taxotere is the final deconstruction of the Aschoff's argument that cross-overs were sicker because they got chemo late. The cross-overs had a 5.5 month median survival advantage over the Pure Placebo.

Provenge+Taxotere           34.5
All Placebo+Taxotere        25.4
Crossovers+Taxotere       25.7
Pure Placebo+Taxotere    20.2


Dr. Daniel Petrylak just said everyone with advancing stages of prostate cancer should take Provenge as first line therapy followed by Taxotere as second line therapy. If you follow this regimen you will see a survival advantage of almost 14 months vs true placebo with all arms well balanced against a Halabi nomogram.

Dr. Petrylak is one of the most respected oncologists researching prostate cancer in the world and one of the lead investigators on the Taxotere study published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Basically, Dr. Petrylak's endorsement of this regimen would be the same as Dr. Eric Small saying some future therapy should be given in front of Provenge and provides a significantly improved survival benefit to Provenge. This data has been presented at the Chemotherapy Symposium for goodness sakes.


--- nothing short of stellar news ---

You guys have missed the MORE important PR regarding the top-line of the phase-3 P-11 study for EARLY STAGE prostate cancer:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061108/sfw066.html?.v=81


Highlights:

1. No safety issues (as expected) - but VERY important

2. Clear (stat-sig) immunology and biochemical responses

3. Too soon to determine any CLINICAL response - this data will be
available in the coming year+


As for the market, well, we had a nice run-up in the last couple of
days and at the beginning of today's trading. Short term PPS is
always problematic in DNDN due to manipulation, but all I care is
the long run. Note that the early-stage prostate cancer is 4x bigger
than late stage (the current BLA application), and that Bank of
America's recent research study estimates Provenge revenues (for
late stage) at $2 billion ... so go figure why DNDN is traded at
$400MM mkt cap.


Disclosure: I have added a few more shares today after seeing the
results.

... and remember, I am for the LONG RUN

There are no "earnings" to report in DNDN - there will be no surprises regarding the burn rate.

The company will announce if they are still on schedule to submit the final third of the BLA to the FDA (no news is good news here). Any other news (P-11 trial data, int'l partnership) could be HUGE HUGE. Long term investors will listen closely to the Q&A for other hints.

This is a big story and could be worth much more than a quick trade - though it is always nice to make a buck or two .... ;-)

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 04, 2006, 06:22:49 AM


4. An opportunity for the longs trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle to sell to "stronger hands," which also would create distance in time since the Reversal.

Not sure if you have following the trading on the day that DNDN hit $5.72 - it was an early morning spike (5 mins or so, based on REAL POSITIVE news) which was hammered by the shorts. The shorts capped DNDN ALL DAY LONG at the $5.00-$5.50 range, so very few traders actually bought DNDN above $5.05.

OTOH, it seems that in the last 2 days there is some accumulation going on

DNDN is the REAL DEAL (though risky!) if we talk fundamentals - if interested, you guys may want to check the following DNDN - FACT SHEET link:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=11625&pt=msg&mid=773201

This is TRULY an amazing story

Again, I know nothing about T/A, but I do know that the story i

Quote

I know that you guys are mainly T/A professionals, but the story behind DNDN is (probably) for real. This is an INVESTMENT, and if approved (mid 2007), this is a $50 stock.

I am NOT trying to hype ... believe me ... really ... ;-)

This is a great FUNDAMENTAL analysis of DNDN - it is WORTH reading!

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10625&pt=msg&mid=730972

all about DNDN:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10507&pt=msg&mid=725586

This is THE Real Deal!

Quote from: kslifka on October 20, 2006, 10:17:09 AM
May be because of options expiration today

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 20, 2006, 09:41:08 AM
Anyone have any idea what is going on???

The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!

I don't think that over 3 MILLION traded shares has much to do with slightly over 1,000 open contracts. Option expy day was only an excuse for the Hedgies to pull down the price to the $5 level. They will likely move it a bit lower at the beginning of the week, but the FUNDAMENTAL data of DNDN keeps getting better and better, so FUNDAMENTAL-based demand will eventually break the shorts.

Some (fundamental) points to consider:

1. 50,000 patients a year in the US (AIPC - late stage PCa)
2. Cost of treatment - not less than $45,000/patient (equivalent to other advanced cancer drugs)
3. Competition: only chemotherapy - over 50% of the patients do not take it due to its horrible side effects

Now for some speculations:

1. As an urologist/oncologist - will you recommend Provenge or chemo to your patient know the:
a. side effects of chemotheraphy
b. the side effects of Provenge (1-2 days of fever and chills)
c. Survival data -- I assume 65% penetration within 2 years
d. Typical biotechs are traded at 8-15x peak revenues. Due to the higher manufacturing cost of Provenge - I will take the low end.
e. peak revenues in 2 years - I will apply a 35% for this

So ... if we sum it all in case of approval:

Revenue: $45,000 x 50,000 x 65% = $1.25 BILLION
Market cap: $1.25B * 8 * 0.65 = $6 BILLION

Today's market cap: $400 MILLION

So ... Wall-Street believes that there are 6-7% approval chances - I believe that they are WAY WAY wrong.

As some of you know, I basically ignore T/A and follow fundamentals. As such, DNDN has to be traded around $20 PRIOR to the FDA decision and could be as high as $80 POST approval.

It seems more and more that DNDN is the real thing!

CEGE's direct competitor is DNDN. CEGE's VITAL-1 &2 clinical trials are underway, DNDN's clinical trials are over and the BLA submission is due within the next couple of months and the FDA decision is expected in 1H07.

CEGE is 2 years behind DNDN with a BIG unknown (RISK) - the clinical trial results.

Check my oother DNDN posts with more information about this company (la-onda, I know that you know... ;-) - IMHO, it has the best risk/reward ratio in today's biotechs.

Melf Elf, any comment about "my baby" is highly appreciated. Moreover, I would take the negative ones very seriously and will be happy to try and challenge negative views - and obviously there are negative fundamental issues to be considered.

I read your other post on the "Previous Picks" board, and frankly speaking, I did not understand ANYTHING. Just from curiosity, where do you see DNDN in the near/mid/long term from now? I doubt if a penny more or a nickle less in the closing price (or intraday PPC) has ANY meaning, especially with this highly manipulated stock. All one had to do was to look at today's close, as the shorts held to the 4.51 (if i am not mistaken) dispate large buying blocks in the last 10 mins, as if moving the price up is so bad for the sellers (well, if this is not manipulation, what is price manipulation)

any comments?

nice trend in the last couple of days, but fundamentally, it has a LONG LONG way to go