NTRI

[Melf Elf]

any other opinions ??

Oliver,

Yes.  It's a shame that any one of those FIVE analysts didn't downgrade NTRI at any time during the week of January 18, January 19, January 22,  January 23, January 24, when we would have had a chance of making a great trade shorting NTRI.

CURSES!!   

On January 18, NTRI completed both a Bear Flag, and a 4-month H&S Top.  The Right Shoulder was a Bear Flag (in blue), so it was a DOUBLE breakdown, at 63.43 (the Bear Flag) and at 62.63 (the H&S Top).

Over the next four trading sessions, NTRI tried to scramble back above the breakdowns, without success on a closing basis.

"Sell and/or sell short pattern breakdowns."

"Sell short re-tests of pattern breakdowns."

Let's say we shorted 63.00.  The stop is a takeout of the Right Shoulder of 68.25, so a print of 68.26.

Risk if we're stopped out: a loss of 8.3%

The target IN PLAY was 47.38.  Gain, if it MADE: 24.8%.

Risk: Reward on the trade, roughly 1:3.

In the next post, let's see what happened, and where the FIVE (at least) downgrades came in.

[Melf Elf]

It took 4 months for the H&S Top to form, and only 9 days for the 47.38 target to get MADE.

Where do the FIVE analysts downgrade NTRI?  After the stock closes at 44.05, on January 31.

 

To their credit, they at least seem to be aware that NTRI completed a BIG Double Top at the January 31 close.

The highs are 76.33 and 76.20.

The middle of the "M" Top was 45.45, so that's been broken to the downside, putting 14.70 IN PLAY.  That might seem ridiculously low, but I've seen targets on both the upside and downside that looked ridiculous, get MADE, for one reason or another.

For example, BBC.  The May Day Crash Target of 5.31 ended up getting MADE in November, despite how ridiculously low that target seemed back in May.

NTRI needs to close back above 45.45 to put the 14.70 target ON HOLD.

If support had held, I would have been ver-ry tempted to fade those five analysts, and go long NTRI, but with that Double Top getting completed, I won't "tempt fate."

 

Thanks for posting those upgrades and downgrades, Oliver.  It's nice if we can catch those right at the breakdown or the breakout, like the Dutton call in XING, on January 16.  We knew exactly where the DOUBLE breakout numbers were that day, which we discussed prior to the call. 

That's when those analyst upgrades and downgrades can be especially nice catalysts for a good directional move.

[setravis]

"NTRI" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                               
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                             
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.        
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$              

[BigSully1]

Up 15% in PM on earnings/guidance. People back on their diets after the holidays.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070425/earns_nutrisystem.html?.v=1

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NTRI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53406938144

[Lucas Scott]

Possible inverted head & shoulders. Gap to fill but my target is the 200 dma for a gain in the 40%+ range.

[BigSully1]

UPDATE 1-NutriSystem ups Q1 revenue view, names CEO; shares rise

[Miguel007]

Diet company NutriSystem Inc. will replace Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. on the S&P SmallCap 600 on Tuesday, Standard & Poor's said Friday.

[setravis]

Again...
"NTRI" Threads have been Merged....
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                 
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.               
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$