CF

[bjc]

These puppies are firing on all cylindars, and they arent overvalued by any stretch.

[bjc]

This is what I call a breakout.  All these stocks..mos, pot, tra all on fire.

I don't see why there won't be follow thru tomorrow.  Nothing but blue skies for most of these stocks...

[BigSully1]

Yes, CF just broke out of a well formed base and should have plenty of room to run now.

POT looks like it has formed a cup with a high handle and looks ready to go again. AGU may be another to watch.

[bjc]

From the DD I've done, I figure CF is the best value.  Growing fast as the others and much cheaper.  Compare MOS valuation and CF.  I'm only comparing PE.  TRA is another good one that you don't hear as much about.  POT seems a bit more pricey than CF.  Not expensive by any means but I like the bang for my buck better with CF.  After doing some dd I really want to round out my full position.  Or get some options.  I keep a journal in a .notepad document and I had discussed buying some TKC options and some CF options.  I only bought the TKC ones...  The CF APR 130 I was eying was up almost 100% today..oh well.  Will let the shares I own ride here for a while to come until the fundamentals change. 

CF at $150 is not stupid at all.  CF at $200 might be fairly valued in 6 months.

[BigSully1]

Bjc, IBD talks a little about CF, RIMM, ORCL, MDR and a couple of others in todays market wrap video

http://investors.com/MediaCenter/MediaCenter.aspx?MediaID=771&t=V

I think? anyone can get this and more videos free themselves at investors.com

[BigSully1]

Yes, CF just broke out of a well formed base and should have plenty of room to run now.

POT looks like it has formed a cup with a high handle and looks ready to go again. AGU may be another to watch.

AGU gapped up this morning on heavy trade. Closed up 7%. POT also broke out to new high, but on moderate volume.

[BigSully1]

Just fyi, on Monsanto;

Monsanto's quarterly profit surges
Latin America drives 36% revenue growth in herbicides and seed traits
By Christopher Hinton, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:25 a.m. EST Jan. 3, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Monsanto Co. said Thursday it nearly tripled first-quarter profit from a year ago, thanks in part to strong demand in Latin America for Roundup herbicide and seed trait products.
The St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON:monsanto co new com
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Last: 115.97+4.50+4.04%

9:33am 01/03/2008

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MON 115.97, +4.50, +4.0%) also raised its earnings outlook for fiscal 2008 to $2.50 to $2.60 a share, up from a prior view of about $2.40 a share.
For the three months ended Nov. 30, Monsanto said it earned $256 million, or 46 cents a share, compared to $90 million, or 16 cents a share, in the year-ago first quarter.
Total sales rose to $2.1 billion from $1.54 billion, on the back of robust Roundup sales in Brazil and Argentina as well as greater adoption of its seed traits. Herbicide sales to Europe also helped, Monsanto said.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected, on average, first-quarter earnings of 35 cents a share on sales of $1.89 billion.
"Our results in the first quarter represent a solid start to the fiscal year and highlight the strong performance of our Latin American business," said Chief Executive Hugh Grant in a statement. "With the most significant part of our annual business cycle still to come, we believe these results position us for another strong fiscal year."
"The quarter was spectacular," said Charlie Rentschler, analyst with the investment firm Wall Street Access.
The improvement in quarterly cash flow -- at $996 million compared to $600 million last year -- indicated plenty of prepayments from U.S. corn farmers. "The Spring should be very, very strong," Rentschler said.
Monsanto's second and third quarters are typically it's strongest.
Shares of Monsanto moved up 3.1% in premarket trading to $114.90, shy of their 52-week high of $116.25 set Dec. 27.
In the last year, the stock has more than doubled on demand for the company's hybrid corn, soybean and cotton seed traits that help to protect crops from pests and provide greater yield.
Shares of rival Syngenta AG (SYT:syngenta ag sponsored adr
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Last: 53.21+2.58+5.10%

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SYT 53.21, +2.58, +5.1%) were also up ahead of the bell, climbing 3% to $52.17.
Bullish on Brazil
Monsanto on Thursday said higher corn commodity prices are driving growth of acreage planted in Brazil to about 35 million acres. Currently, about 28 million acres uses hybrid seeds, the company said.
"Recent estimates also suggest that soybean production in the country could be slightly higher than last season as well, or slightly higher than the 50 million acres planted last year," the company said.
Monsanto also noted in a separate news release that its research-and-development pipeline volume was currently one of the company's largest, including SmartStax corn, disease-resistant soybean, second-generation high-oil soybeans, high-stearate soybeans, and high-oil corn.
The agricultural industry has been benefiting from new demand in biofuels, which has increased crop commodity prices and encouraged the planting of additional acreage.
In November, sector bellwether Deere & Co. (DE:Deere & Company
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Last: 91.15+0.95+1.05%

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DE 91.15, +0.95, +1.1%) reported 52% growth in fourth-quarter earnings due to strong overseas sales in a boost in equipment prices. For 2008, the farm-equipment maker expects to see double-digit sales of its products in the U.S. and to South America. See full story. 

[BigSully1]

4:49PM CF Industries beats by $0.56, beats on revs (CF) 106.61 -1.04 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 better than the First Call consensus of $1.67; revenues rose 61.9% year/year to $852.5 mln vs the $796.4 mln consensus. Co gives outlook: "Looking to the spring planting season, the fundamentals that drove our strong 2007 performance look even better for the farm economy and the company in 2008. Prices for most major crops remain at record or near-record levels, providing an incentive for farmers to maximize planted acreage and to optimize fertilizer application this spring. And despite today's high fertilizer prices, these crop prices clearly should support excellent farm economics in 2008, coming on the heels of 2007's record farm income. Looking ahead to the first half of 2008, questions remain regarding corn acreage, sulfur cost, and the strength of the general economy. However, taken against the backdrop of low grain stocks worldwide, high grain prices, record farm economics, and robust global markets for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, we're looking at the first half of 2008 with excitement and optimism. We're well positioned to serve our customers in this strong agricultural market."

[bjc]

I think these stocks might be running out of steam.  Look at MOO. 

I may take the early rally this ER should spark to buy some puts of stocks like MOS and POT.  They have both performed incredibly well, and they're both great companies no doubt, but I think they are getting ahead of their valuations.  Both trading at what seems like 20+ forward PEs, and things are as good as they get now. 

So I don't know, all these stocks are hanging on their 50 mas. 

CF has a much cheaper valuations than these others, but I think it would get dragged down with them if my scenario played out.

Good luck Sully..

[BigSully1]

I'm no longer in it bjc, just posting fyi.

[bjc]

Well Sully, I wish we both were still holding. Unless you sold within 10% of the high and are out higher than this...in which case you are a bastard! just kidding...

I bought some MOS and POT puts and got completely annihilated.  Didn't listen to the charts that screamed buy..... and they exploded to the upside and I got what I deserved.