Market Discussion

[tokyopua]

La Onda may be able to verify that I called PUDC elsewhere on Tuesday night (as shown below), it went up 100% today.  Granted I diddnt konw their earnings woulddbe amazing, just liked the technicals and fundamentals.

I just dont know a good place to be posting stuff here in a quick format, but if we had a active chat type thread like we did before we can all pitch in.  I dunno, maybe I should post in the stock watchlist, but I like the quick bullet format we were doing before last year.   Here is the kind of format thing I mean, maybe like chat, etc.:

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[Wed 01:28] <tokyopua> Speaking of coal companies, ACI looking hot!
[Tue 23:59] <tokyopua> I have been watching it for months now, finally feel this could be the place to buy with an intelligent technical rationale and easy to set stop criteria
[Tue 23:58] <tokyopua> Looking to see a bounce, will probably sell if it breaches the trendline, assuming I get filled, guess I might try 0.33 anyway, I think PUDC is consolidating for a rising 3 methods candlestick pattern
[Tue 23:55] <tokyopua> I flipped PUDC for a few hundred dollar profit recently, plan to get back in tomorrow if I can get filled at 0.32.  Its just recently popped above a 60 day descending trendline, 0.32 would be bouncing of that as support, plus horizontal restance turned support with 7 points that were resistance or support recently.   
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But the key is making sure everyone knows and gets excited about helping each other in a very specific place.  I sort of feel like going in chat now here is like a tree falling in the forrest, only Lordbot hears you lol. 

Im still happy with the status quo here, just think a revival of the old day rocket finding thread would be cool, Im locked and loaded to help out if it does get revived.

[tokyopua]

I also want to clarify that my opinion is not that the long term investment idea failed at all, it just happened to stretch across a bear market.  So its timing, not methodology, I think if we get out of this market funk, ALL the picks David picked will rock eventually. 

Its just that what was going on a year ago was pretty amazing, it was like trading by consensus to borrow a term from Ares, and the part I am not sure about was the idea that it wasnt somewhat sustainable.  I think that it didnt last long enough to know that for sure.  The LT portfolio got a longer chance to prove itself, maybe it would be good to restart a super duper fire thingamajiggy of some sort, and give it more time to prove/disprove itself.

[la-onda]

Confirm the PUDC from tokyo, congrats.
I am trying to run the mixed approach:

50% long term approach
50% TA & FA Short term trading

What are the next steps from the 3SoF Admin Team?
Looks like the average posting numbers went down the last weeks, lots of "old" members are not posting less or not at all anymore.

cheers from SGP
O.

[Terliso]

Where is Aussie? I thougt he is going to manage a Technical Portfolio.

[Terliso]

What are the next steps from the 3SoF Admin Team?
Looks like the average posting numbers went down the last weeks, lots of "old" members are not posting less or not at all anymore.

cheers from SGP
O.

I think if we are going to bring back the old days, 3SOF posters will get excited again.

[terainvestment]

DAVID,

I need your brilliant financial analysis on two stocks that are very interesting.
FSLR Vs. LDK.

FSLR has 500 Mln/$ in revenue and a market cap of 20 Bln/$. Price/sales ratio is 42,32 and forward P/E 53.

LDK has 500 Mln/4 in revenue and a market cap of 3.4 Bln/$. Price/sales ratio is 6,53 and forward p/E is 9.

Both are growing at huge pace and it seems to me that both are integrated, meaning that both plans to build a polysilicon plant so supply rising demand.

What about if you make a deep research on LDK and FSLR?
I think LDK could be a ten-bagger in two years and it worth the trouble to analyze it.

Hope to see your reply, ciao

Tera

[la-onda]

Shadowtrader weekly update:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday041308st.html

cheers
Oliver

[tokyopua]

Where is Aussie? I thougt he is going to manage a Technical Portfolio.

Any updates on this?

[la-onda]

Hey Tokyo,
this Aussies answer from SKNN thread:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7501.90

David, Ramsburg is there any official statement from how you will split up your future work?
Will there be a special STEPS Portfolio from Aussie?
Ramsburg, will you also start to be involved in the stock analysis again?

cheers
Oliver

[David Randolph]

Where is Aussie? I thougt he is going to manage a Technical Portfolio.

Any updates on this?

Aussie took one week of vacations which he had planned before joining the 3 SOF Team.

I've read tokyo's proposals and testimonials. I'm still unsure of what would be better, reviving the chat, a thread or a full message board. Perhaps the chat would be the best for those fast trading purposes. There wouldn't be any portfolio, just people exchanging ideas about stocks and their short term prospects.

terainvestment, please make those questions in the proper threads in the Watch List. I think you're making my old mistake of comparing valuations to get to a conclusion. Do you know the response to the "why" question? If you don't, you don't know much about the fundamentals of the two companies. You can understand that one trades at a discount versus the other, but you need to know why the market values them differently. Or do you believe the market is inefficient? Well, sometimes it is, but most of the times stocks are valued the way they are due to specific reasons. The reasons need to change for the stock to move in a meaningful way. Just a few months back I was at this "stage of comparing valuations". But now I'm more concerned about answering the "why" questions, because that's the key for understanding the real factors which can move the stock up or down in a meaningful and sustainable way. 

I'm not in the mood for "daily updates" today. Considering a chat session instead. Maybe as a permanent feature. We have to be closer to one another to learn faster from each others experiences.

I'll think for an hour on the subject and then will send the newsletter.

[terainvestment]

thanks David for your reply and sorry if I made confusion in placing my topic, next time I will post in right thread.

Uhmm...I think you are right, I am basing my investments on only valuations and do not consider again where valuations come from.
Valuation is higher if a company is fully integrated: from production to distribution and marketing.
is also higher if the company is the market leader or has a recognized brand among the investing community.

i will dig more and make a more accurate DD.

Thanks for your inputs, ciao

Tera (alias Andrea)

[poli]

« Reply #712 on: April 05, 2008, 01:28:06 AM »

BigSully1,   Good luck to you.  I believe the market goes up on balance until April 25th to 28th or so, then down on balance into May 20th-25th and then back up on balance again into late June, early July.  We will know in the fullness of time.  Good trading and health to you...

Poli


I sold my TBSI towards the end of Fridays session as well as SMH.  I will lighten up on a few others on Monday.  I believe we will go down on balance now until May 20th-25th,  not a big drop, but on balance,  so I wanted to book some profits.  I will look to re-buy at lower prices towards end of May.  We will know in the fullness of time.   Against all other sentiment that was being posted here in March I am still holding to my perdiction from March that we will see new highs in the 1600's in the S@P by end of 1st quarter of 2009.    To all good health and trading.

Poli

[pinoleropuro]

hola!
on a positive view some would argue that we are going to see strong move to the upside now that the down trend has been broken on the SP500.
Thursday the trend was broken, Friday it continued and we closed higher and we're not overbought yet.
this could bring Parabolic wave 3 action. take a look at the chart.
any thoughts?

[la-onda]

Old Fool Notes - 05/01/08

The bulls had a runaway day today.  I had a suspicion that was going to happen this morning when I saw the futures – but not to the extent it did.  The volume was high at 2.3 billion with a ratio of 4.4 to 1 in favor of the bulls.  That is a high ratio but not bad efficiency for 68 points.

The daily chart looks wonderful, except for the Bollinger.  We are not banging it too hard so it may not give us too much trouble tomorrow.  At the same time do not be surprised by a profit taking pullback.

The hourly charts also look great but have been on the Bollinger for 5 hours.  So a pullback should be expected here too.

The option boys got on board late in the day and the ratio chart ended in perfect position.

The weekly chart looks absolutely great.

The Wilshire chart recovered and cleared the 200-day EMA.  If we can keep the OBV positive, this chart has a great future.

The P&F tagged a triple top breakout but is calling for a top at 2500.  I certainly expect hard resistance there but it does not look like a top to me.  We will see when we get there.

After looking at the futures and the muted reaction this morning, I decided there may be a decent trade in the making.  As I outlined in the plan last night, we got the opening drop and then cleared the opening move on one candle.  I bought 25% QLD long at ~2427 and again at 2440 based on the velocity of the moves.  I went 75% long at about 2450 and 100% at 2460.  When we went flat at 2475, I decided to rake some chips off the table and sold 50%.  Very nice jingle.  Still holding 50% QLD long.  What is likely to happen tomorrow is that we get a quick jump out of the gate and then we fade.  I'm guessing – somewhere between 2465 and 2455.  That will be buy territory unless we have big velocity down.  Follow the ball.

Charts link below.  It's a new month and I need the votes.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2071209

[la-onda]

Shadowtrader update:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday050408st2.html