SWIR

[Ramsburg]

Chart Update:
No developments on this chart, SWIR remains near the EMA-50, apparently consolidating and not following much of the recent market volatility. Yesterday's session had a bit more of volume, maybe the stock is preparing an attempt to break this range.

Portfolio Instructions:
Hold SWIR

Regards,

[David Randolph]

SWIR has been coming back strongly and I expect the stock to close the year north of $30. Anyway, it is clear now that my "buying SWIR on the dip" recommendation was quite premature and I could have bought the stock after the turn of the short term trend from bearish to bullish and I would have bought considerably lower than I did.

The lesson for the future is: be patient when buying, as much as you are for selling.

I'll keep holding SWIR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

SWIR didn't do as well as NVTL yesterday, but it held better than the general market. Overall I'm pleased with SWIR and think it will close the year around $30, due to its industry growth.

[David Randolph]

SWIR turned green on the Main Portfolio. Now I have 7 gainers and 4 losers. I expect SWIR to close 2007 around $30, I'll keep holding the stock.

[David Randolph]

SWIR reacted negatively to the 50 days SMA because the general market was also deeply in the red on Friday, but I remain a long term bull in the general market and even more so on SWIR, as I see 53% CAGR for its products until 2012.

I'll keep holding SWIR.

[David Randolph]

SWIR had a 1.2% drop yesterday, no big deal. I think that when the general market turns north again, and I have little doubts that it will, SWIR will outperform the S&P 500 and close 2007 around $30.

[David Randolph]

Nothing changed on SWIR, and what I wrote on NVTL's thread perfectly applies to SWIR. Analysts estimates for 2008 are too low and when we start approaching the end of 2007 I'm sure they'll have to raise their 2008 estimates meaningfully and that's going to put SWIR above $30 a share by year's end.

I'll keep holding SWIR.

[David Randolph]

No news out for SWIR over the last few trading days. The stock is still trading just under the 50 days SMA. I expect a bullish breakout sooner rather than later. Perhaps the FED rate cut or statement will be the catalyst for SWIR to start pushing higher again.

You see, there are just three and a half months for 2007 to end and SWIR still needs to rise 31% to be over $30, so let's better start doing it soon

I'll continue holding SWIR.

[David Randolph]

I expect a market rally today and beyond, with the S&P 500 breaking out to new all time highs by year's end. Such a market move will make SWIR's earnings multiple expand and push the stock up to around $30 a share.

I'll continue holding SWIR.

[la-onda]

I just want  to bring back the Q3 SWIR guidance... 

Yahoo board quotation:
I just finished listening to NVTL's presentation that they delivered today, and I found something very interesting. They maintained their $100 mil revenue guidance. Why is this important? They were able to do so while only having two North American majors as customers (Verizon and Sprint). Also they have not had a USB modem channel at Sprint for most of the 3rd qtr. (although this will change soon). This suggests that this sector is really on fire. If they can achieve $100 mil with TWO North American majors, one North American USB channel, and no M2M business; then what will SWIR do with three North American majors, three USB channels (two exclusive - AT&T and temporarily Sprint), and an estimated $9 mil contributed from M2M? I think that we may be in for a blowout qtr. If we can just get these new HSUPA modems shipped, we may just knock the doors off of the hinges.
long and strong holding SWIR

best regards from Singapore 

[David Randolph]

I just want  to bring back the Q3 SWIR guidance...   

Yahoo board quotation:
I just finished listening to NVTL's presentation that they delivered today, and I found something very interesting. They maintained their $100 mil revenue guidance. Why is this important? They were able to do so while only having two North American majors as customers (Verizon and Sprint). Also they have not had a USB modem channel at Sprint for most of the 3rd qtr. (although this will change soon). This suggests that this sector is really on fire. If they can achieve $100 mil with TWO North American majors, one North American USB channel, and no M2M business; then what will SWIR do with three North American majors, three USB channels (two exclusive - AT&T and temporarily Sprint), and an estimated $9 mil contributed from M2M? I think that we may be in for a blowout qtr. If we can just get these new HSUPA modems shipped, we may just knock the doors off of the hinges.
long and strong holding SWIR

best regards from Singapore

Great post la-onda, as always

The market agrees with this poster's views, since SWIR finally closed above the 50 days SMA.

I'm not sure about the two for NVTL, three for SWIR though. Since I'm not living in the USA I don't know the mobile operators very well and which uses which, Novatel or Sierra Wireless. but I guess he's right, I check this information for the next update.

As for NVTL's weakness on Q3 due to some Sprint delay, I remember the stock was downgraded due to that issue, but since it is just a temporary thing, not affecting the long term outlook, I remained confident on the stock and I still am today.

SWIR is ready to push towards $30 a share, with the general market's help, but more importantly, because its industry is really on fire and it will remain that way for years to come.

[Kublakhan]

There goes our hope for a continued push to the upside (at least for the short term).  Down nearly $1 in AH.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sierra Wireless Inc. said Wednesday evening it has entered into a bought-deal agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC World Markets to sell 3.5 million shares in the U.S. and Canada for $22.40 each. The sale will raise $78.4 million, and net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital and potential future acquisitions. The Canada-based maker of mobile broadband network products and software said the offering is expected to close on or about Oct. 2.

[kslifka]

There goes our hope for a continued push to the upside (at least for the short term).  Down nearly $1 in AH.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sierra Wireless Inc. said Wednesday evening it has entered into a bought-deal agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC World Markets to sell 3.5 million shares in the U.S. and Canada for $22.40 each. The sale will raise $78.4 million, and net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital and potential future acquisitions. The Canada-based maker of mobile broadband network products and software said the offering is expected to close on or about Oct. 2.

Nahhh...Only short term down side...maybe when I get some funds I can buy.  SWIR has no debt..."The sale will raise $78.4 million, and net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital and potential future acquisitions"...this can only be a good thing in the weeks/months to come.

[pinoleropuro]

There goes our hope for a continued push to the upside (at least for the short term).  Down nearly $1 in AH.


Quote
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sierra Wireless Inc. said Wednesday evening it has entered into a bought-deal agreement with a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC World Markets to sell 3.5 million shares in the U.S. and Canada for $22.40 each. The sale will raise $78.4 million, and net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, working capital and potential future acquisitions. The Canada-based maker of mobile broadband network products and software said the offering is expected to close on or about Oct. 2.

based on inmediate short term it looks like its gonna go down.
RSI2 and fast stochastics say its overbought.

[David Randolph]

based on inmediate short term it looks like its gonna go down.
RSI2 and fast stochastics say its overbought.

Hi pinol, it will go down (perhaps not for more than today's open), but it's not because those technical indicators say so. A stock can be overbought for weeks, months, even years ... depending on the time frame used. The most important issue in technical analysis is the trend.

The news out was this:

• Sierra Wireless to Sell 3.5M Shares
AP (Wed 5:53pm)

Prior to this SWIR had 27.34 M shares outstanding, so it's about 12.8% dilution. We'll see what they're going to do with the money, if there's an acquisition or not.

As kslifka wrote, SWIR has no short or long term debt, and it has $89 M in cash, so it doesn't need the money from a short term liquidity needs perspective. On my valuation model I had just 1% dilution, so I'll need to adjust that for the next update and see what the changes are. Hopefully the money will be used to change other variables, like net profit margin for example.

I'll keep holding SWIR, despite the short term setback.