SOLF

[bjc]

The way I see it, Solar stocks are due to get whacked one of these days.

I love the fundamental story, but we all know stocks don't go up in a straight line.  I'd be led to believe that if this does occur (solar stocks have a rough day), SOLF should get it pretty hard because of its high volatility.  I'd expect the same out of CSIQ.

This is what I hope for.  I want some SOLF shares for <$23 

I think the chart looks great though.  Looks like it may form a pennant from 24-30.

[kslifka]

The way I see it, Solar stocks are due to get whacked one of these days.

I love the fundamental story, but we all know stocks don't go up in a straight line.  I'd be led to believe that if this does occur (solar stocks have a rough day), SOLF should get it pretty hard because of its high volatility.  I'd expect the same out of CSIQ.

This is what I hope for.  I want some SOLF shares for <$23 

I think the chart looks great though.  Looks like it may form a pennant from 24-30.

I sold SOLF and CSIQ today. (Although I sold CSIQ a little too early;  it looks like it will gap early tomorrow and then drop...we'll see)  SOLF put in black candle therefore the sell.  However last week, SOLF did manage to take out the black candle the next day...but I think it would be very rare for it to accomplish that this second time for tomorrow.

Anyway...I may look to re-enter SOLF and CSIQ when they touch then bounce off the 9ema...whatever price that may be.  We'll keep watching.

[bjc]

ksl-

Awesome timing on your sells!  I'm still holding my CSIQ and anxiously awaiting a spot to buy some more.

Also hoping SOLF falls off a cliff.  I'd love to get some under $23. 

Whats the consensus...is this a buying opp or are we in for some pain?

[nutsterrt]

Well played, lifka.  *Applause*

After seeing yesterday's candle, I purchased a small number of Dec 30 Put options at 4.40 assuming a bit of a pullback.  They're at 5.40 (+23%) at this point, and I'll continue to hold 'em until I see the chart improve.

Good luck on your trades!

[bjc]

I think SOLF will get a lot of support in the 22 range, with the 9 ema coming up, etc.

I'm putting a limit buy order in for a half-ish position at 22.9.  I won't be surprised at all if it goes lower, and I'll be able to complete my position and average it to anywhere around $20. 

The numbers just speak for themselves, and people understand that now I think.

[kslifka]

Well played, lifka.  *Applause*

After seeing yesterday's candle, I purchased a small number of Dec 30 Put options at 4.40 assuming a bit of a pullback.  They're at 5.40 (+23%) at this point, and I'll continue to hold 'em until I see the chart improve.

Good luck on your trades!

ksl-

Awesome timing on your sells!  I'm still holding my CSIQ and anxiously awaiting a spot to buy some more.

Also hoping SOLF falls off a cliff.  I'd love to get some under $23. 

Whats the consensus...is this a buying opp or are we in for some pain?

Thanks, but I did take it on the chin with ASTI(Norsk Hydro increase stake by Thursday) and ASYS(earnings tomorrow pm), 

I kind of figured the market would sell-off  after the Fed decision.  As a general rule if the market is going up ahead of a Fed rate decison...the market will sell-off.  Visa Versa if the market is going down ahead of a rate decision.

The high flying stocks usually take the brunt of the sell-off too.

Either way...What does the U.S. Fed. decision have to do with China solar??  Absolutely nothing:D

I will probably look to re-enter these stocks...but I will be patient.  The fire has been extinguished...at least for now.

[bjc]

Yeah, I changed my mind in the shower and canceled the order.

Still holding strong on CSIQ, I'll hold through whatever.  Would've been nice to book a 50%+ profit if I had timed it right but I'll make it an investment.  I definitely believe the value of CSIQ is somewhere well north of $30.

I don't need the added exposure...  I've consolidated most of my holdings and I'm down to VIP, TKC, and CSIQ.  I lost almost 4% today and I was less than half invested..but these stocks were all having crappy days anyway before the cut was announced.  I'm just going to chill for a bit although I think we may sling back higher tomorrow.

[bjc]

I bought a bit of SOLF today at 24.73.  The chart kinda looks ugly but I think the downtrend you can see on a 10 day intra-day may get broken tomorrow.  I just had to get a taste just in case it runs away from me.  I'm quite fond of SOLF's fundamentals. 

I continue to believe CSIQ and SOLF are far and away the best values in the solar sector.  I didn't realize they both have > 1/2 FSLR revs last Q.  I understand FSLR has their own technology and FSLR has much higher margins, but lets get real. 

But is FSLR really worth $19 bil while SOLF worth $1.3 and CSIQ is worth $640 mil?  I don't think so.  Maybe I underestimate FSLR's competitive advantage given their technology.  A lot of people believe this will be the Intel or whatever of Solar stocks I believe, so then $19 bil isn't really expensive at all.

Maybe a more fair comparison is STP, who makes the same products as CSIQ and SOLF.  Q307 revs of about $400 mil, vs ~$100 mil for SOLF and CSIQ.  STP may be given a premium due to the fact they will benefit from economies of scale..they'll have over 1 GW of capacity production levels soon.. 

I won't be surprised if SOLF chills for a while and comes down to lower $20s.  I hope it does so I can build a position for the run to new all time highs.  I'm also bullish on STP, but I would be afraid to touch stocks like SPWR and FSLR at these heights.  And I think these big boys have the ability to bring the whole sector down with any weakness. 

[bjc]

My take on SOLF: ESLR will take the whole sector higher, and SOLF will break this down trend from the past 6 days or so. 

Volume has decreased steadily in this consolidation.  It didn't get dragged down to the upper teens like many expected, including me.  Strong hands holding now.  I think if the downtrend gets broken there will be a lot of buyers that come in and volume should see a drastic increase.

Just my opinions, for what they are worth....

[BigSully1]

Congrats to you guys for your success on SOLF, CSIQ. Just wondering if you've looked at YGE. I could have sworn ksilifka  or someone started a thread on it sometime, but a search brings no results. I bought just a little but need to still look into it deeper when I get time.

[bjc]

I think YGE is looked at as a "higher quality" stock in the sector, but for me it comes down to #s.

Unless you think SOLF and CSIQ are still "bottom of the barrel" or whatever, then don't touch them.  If you think they have turned a corner, they are still very cheap.  YGE mkt cap is still 3x SOLF and 6 or 7x CSIQ and I just don't think the #s justify it.

All three companies are diluting shareholders a bit, YGE the most recent.  In these rapid growth stocks I don't look at a secondary offering as a negative.  It is just a cost of growing the business.

I do believe YGE will rise to new highs.  But if I were you I would go witht he big daddy (STP) if you dont trust CSIQ and SOLF or I'd just go with CSIQ.  But this  is just me!  The market is obviously quite efficient and possible mr market sees something I dont.

[BigSully1]

No, I don't think SOLF and CSIQ are bottom of the barrell at all. I even have a small amount of SOLF and will likely add at some point. They may be considered second or third tier and moving up, but so is YGE, even though it has much larger market cap. YGE has very little institutional support thus far, but I think that is beginning to change.

I already  have STP, SPWR, and JASO, but looking to move some into others with more room to run.

[bjc]

To correct my post a couple days ago..my buy point was 25.73, not 24.73.

Solars looking good.

[kslifka]

SOLF looks ready to move.   

[kslifka]

SOLF looks ready to move.   

Or maybe not

SOLF has been trading very erratically.   As soon as it looks like it's ready to run...MM's drag it down.   Of course the over-all market didn't help today.