UTVG.OB

[tokyopua]

For now I can say that this pattern looks a bit like a truncated Big W pattern and if it acts like that to $3 at least short term.  $2.21 and I break even, would be quite nice to turn this into a profit again!

Yeah, that would be great. The Main's entry price is "a bit" higher, $5.65

While I could understand other low p/e stocks falling (because the "e" could turn negative), on UTVG that was very unlikely because if there's something growing fast in the World right now is tourism and movement of people in China.

The explanation could be accounting and internal control weaknesses, mostly derived from the several acquisitions the company made.

Hopefully, going forward and without acquisitions (just organic growth), the picture will get clearer and UTVG.OB can be valued according to its fundamental trends, which would be several fold more than what it is now.

Anyway, nice 12.5% jump yesterday, I'll keep holding, we'll see what the future brings.

It does seem that whatever the name of the pattern, UTVG wants to make a mirror image of the left side of the cup shape it is making, seems it is going back up pretty much the same way it came down from $3.0.  That is why I felt short term it hits $3.00, could get there even by Friday next week though 2.9 enters the first congestion zone so maybe it just gets to $2.9. 

However, after that it still would likely have legs to get back to the main entry price at least by the olympics.  Of course, we just have to wait and see, for now its just a relief to all holding to see it not go down any further lol, it sure had a lot of fakeouts in that direction.

David, I have a question about charting that has never really been answered fully for me, I was wondering what your take is on drawing trend lines on logarithmic plots vs. normal plots.

The reason I ask is that if I chart UTVG on a normal chart, then we broke above a 6 month descending trendline on 4/29, in fact UTVG gapped up that day and left a nice rising window.  But if I chart on a log chart, then it looks like it wasnt until yesterday 5/2 that we broke above the descending trend line.

Whats your take?

[berloga]

Another couple of weeks of a 14% advance per day and we're back in business!! 

[basanlas]

Unbelievable...now I am only down 49.4% on this one.

Hopefully it keeps runnin'

[David Randolph]

It does seem that whatever the name of the pattern, UTVG wants to make a mirror image of the left side of the cup shape it is making, seems it is going back up pretty much the same way it came down from $3.0.  That is why I felt short term it hits $3.00, could get there even by Friday next week though 2.9 enters the first congestion zone so maybe it just gets to $2.9.

Well, yesterday's high was pretty close at $2.86. Did you take profits or you're still holding?

However, after that it still would likely have legs to get back to the main entry price at least by the olympics.  Of course, we just have to wait and see, for now its just a relief to all holding to see it not go down any further lol, it sure had a lot of fakeouts in that direction.

Indeed, it was impressive. Even though the 2008 guidance said, at the time, that UTVG.OB was trading at 4.7 times earnings while growing them by about 38%, there was still a lot of doubts about which direction the stock would take ... the reaction to the information wasn't immediate. I wonder what people who sold at $1.12 less than a month ago are thinking?

I've been seeing low p/e stocks (some of them I've sold, like SYX and MALL ), coming back pretty aggressively. Maybe the strategy of buying cheap stocks wasn't all that bad ... and I just had weak hands

David, I have a question about charting that has never really been answered fully for me, I was wondering what your take is on drawing trend lines on logarithmic plots vs. normal plots.

Well, there's not a definitive answer at least I don't have one. When making technical analysis I like to keep it simple. This is why I use simple moving averages instead of exponential moving averages and normal scale charts instead of semi-log charts.

However, it is true that after a big decline, if one uses normal scale, all descending trendlines will eventually be broken to the upside, so that isn't a valid bullish technical signal. Semi-log scale is more appropriate in those cases.

The reason I ask is that if I chart UTVG on a normal chart, then we broke above a 6 month descending trendline on 4/29, in fact UTVG gapped up that day and left a nice rising window.  But if I chart on a log chart, then it looks like it wasnt until yesterday 5/2 that we broke above the descending trend line.

Let's put up UTVG's charts using both scales:



I think I'm not getting your line exactly, are you sure you're drawing on a normal scale chart?



Hmm, it appears to me that UTVG's bullish move is more than just a rebound in a bearish trend ... the stock is above most descending trendlines in both scales, normal and semi-log.

In terms of fundamental value, if we were considering a "normal" stock (why not? Accounting irregularities are almost negligible and a thing of the past, due to many acquisitions), I say UTVG should be valued at least at 20 times earnings, given its growth rate and the appeal of its sector (support to the tourism and travel industry in China). That would mean a $240 M market cap and a share price of approximately $6.30.

I'm amazed by CTRP's move. That giant (when compared to UTVG), just keeps on pushing higher in new all time high territory. This tells me people love the sector. If UTVG.OB regains some credibility (perhaps all it was needed was a stock price moving up - no words would restore more credibility than that) maybe people will love it too and value it more appropriately.

I've waited a long time and already had a huge 75% drawdown holding this stock. So now I'm not willing to sell at current prices, even if there can be some more pain down the road. I believe this company is worth at least $6.3 a share with the current fundamental information.

It's funny, buddjas1 left this place because he was annoyed when I disagreed about the statement "Chinese+OTCBB gets a p/e of 5. That's it". I wonder what he's thinking now that UTVG.OB is trading at 8.4 times earnings. I guess there's no point in feeling angry with each other here, everybody is free to express his views, which will be proven right or wrong (or both, if given time), by the market. I don't have an ego anymore (how could I?) so ... I'll just keep going and holding UTVG.OB for the long term.

[soxguy]

   

 

     



Maybe this has something to do with utvg's comeback.


Buyers Snap Up Beijing Olympics Tickets
By LORETTA CHAO
May 6, 2008; Page D6

BEIJING -- Chinese authorities struggled to meet high demand for tickets to the Beijing Games as a third round of domestic sales began Monday.

People lined up overnight at Bank of China branches around the country for a chance to buy some of the 1.38 million tickets available in the latest round of sales, and many others tried buying tickets directly through their computers starting at 9 a.m. Some reported having difficulties navigating the Web site and completing their purchases, but China's state-run Xinhua news agency said 60,000 tickets were sold online and through the bank within the first few hours.

BEIJING 2008


Read complete coverage of the Olympics and China's efforts to prepare for the Games, and track the torch's route.Ticket prices ranged from 30 yuan to 1,000 yuan ($4.29 to $143.10), according to the Beijing 2008 Web site.

The ticket-sale Web site was still running by the end of the workday Monday, unlike the second round of sales, when the ticketing system crashed under heavy demand almost immediately after sales started. That incident prompted the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad to change the sales process during that round to a lottery system and to replace its head of ticketing.

During the latest round, hundreds of people waited for hours for a chance to buy a maximum of six tickets each, or three tickets for two matches. Some showed up at the bank branches as early as 10 p.m. Sunday. Notices posted at Bank of China branches at the end of the business day said tickets to track and field matches, beach volleyball matches, volleyball matches and basketball matches were sold out.


Associated Press 
A customer receives his Beijing 2008 Olympics tickets at the Bank of China headquarters in Beijing during the third round of domestic sales.
Though the system didn't appear to have crashed, demand still made the process slow and cumbersome, according to ticket buyers. "It was really a struggle," said Wang Wei, who was able to get three tickets for track and field events via the Internet from Beijing. "I tried almost a whole day in order to get these three tickets [starting] from 9 a.m....and only got them" at 4:45 p.m., he said.

Organizers said a total of 6.8 million tickets would be available across the 37 competition venues, Xinhua reported. The official ticketing Web site of the Beijing Olympic Committee indicated there will be a fourth and final round of sales for China residents in July.

The rush for tickets stands in stark contrast to the Athens Games, when many of the stands were left empty.

Many have anticipated the Beijing Olympics will be the most watched Olympics in history despite controversies over some of China's policies. The Olympics torch relay has attracted demonstrations around the world targeting China's handling of violent antigovernment protests that erupted in Tibet in March, and its relations with the Sudanese government.

Despite the negative publicity and tightened visa requirements, hotels and travel agents say they have yet to receive any cancellations from travelers; some even have waiting lists so long they say they have no worries about filling their rooms in August.

Separately, Beijing on Monday announced a revision of rules to tighten security around Tiananmen Square, an area that has historically attracted political demonstrations. The new rules ban guns, explosives, knives and "other items that affect social order and public security" from the square and allow searches of people and vehicles in the surrounding area.

--Sue Feng, Jason Leow and Kersten Zhang contributed to this article.

Write to Loretta Chao at [email protected]

[tokyopua]

David,

Thank you very much for the extremely detailed reply on my question regarding the scales.  You did get both the lines I was drawing, they were the ones labeled 3 on each chart.  So actually it was the normal scale that appears to have given the reversal signal earlier if I read that right.  But it made me wonder how other types of trend lines can be impacted, like when chosing support lines, etc....

Anyway, I didnt take profits just yet, I might tomorrow though.  Still, I think if UTVG does consolidate here, the most recent window should act as support and build for the next run.   After all, the Olympics are still many months away ;-)

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your comments and information soxguy and tokyopua.

The following press release was out today from UTVG.OB:

• Universal Travel Group Announces Termination of Financing Agreement
Business Wire (Wed 11:21pm)

Let's also put here the initial information on this subject:

«On February 4, 2008, Universal Travel Group received a commitment for $3.5 million in financing from three Chinese financial institutions in exchange for 1,301,481 shares of Universal Travel common stock, a price of $2.70 per share. The proceeds will be used exclusively to reduce debt from past acquisitions. The funds are to be paid in three installments: $600,000 was paid upon execution of the Agreement, $1,400,000 is to be paid no later than February 28, 2008 and the balance of $1,514,000 is to be paid no later than ten days after the filing of the Company's Annual report. A form of the Agreement between the Company and the investors is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.»

I guess it is clear what happened here ... the banks gave UTVG.OB $600,000 in exchange for 222,200 shares and immediately got deep under water on their investment. With the shares trading in the $1.5 area the banks weren't in the mood for paying $2.7 for them, providing an additional $2.9 M in funding to UTVG.OB.

The company has been earning about $3 M a quarter (at least on paper), apparently there won't be any liquidity problem coming from this.

Technically, the $2.34-$2.39 gap was closed yesterday. The stock looks free to resume its bullish trend.

I'll continue holding UTVG.OB.

[David Randolph]

UTVG.OB closing at the high of the day, recovering from a steep early decline, with people selling on the bad news.

My bet is banks will feel sorry for not wanting UTVG's shares at $2.90.

Someday UTVG will be able to move to the AMEX and then it will be a whole new different ball game. At least this is my long term expectation.

[Se7en]

David, is that a cup and handle on UTVG?

[soxguy]

                              Maybe this is helping today.
Priceline surges on strong earnings, outlook
Travel site has doubled in market value as customers search for bargains
By Rex Crum, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:59 a.m. EDT May 9, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Priceline.com Inc. shares climbed as much as 16% to reach an eight-year high on Friday after the online travel site reported a first-quarter profit fueled by
PCLN 142.60, +18.82, +15.2%) climbed $19.92 share to $143.70 in morning trading. The stock has more than doubled since this time last year and is now at its highest level since late 2000.
Chart of PCLN
The move came after the company said late Thursday that it earned $18.2 million, or 37 cents a share, on revenue of $403.2 million. During the same period a year ago, Priceline lost $16.3 million, or 44 cents a share, on $301.4 million in revenue.
Excluding one-time items, Priceline would have earned 76 cents a share to beat the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, who forecast a profit of 60 cents a share on $377.2 million in revenue.
The company, best-known for its name-your-own price option for flights, has benefited from consumers searching for low-price flights at a time when many airlines are hampered by rising fuel costs.
Priceline said both its domestic and international businesses grew during the quarter. Domestic bookings rose 51% from a year ago, while international bookings doubled from the same period last year.
"The U.S. business was the big upside surprise this quarter," Marianne Wolk of Susquehanna Financial Group said in a research note.
Wolk said that Priceline had earlier estimated its U.S. bookings would rise 35% from a year ago and that "the main driver of growth appears to be air ticketing growth" due to the company's no-booking fee promotion that has been in place since June 2007.
For its second quarter, Priceline said it expect to report earnings of $1.25 to $1.40 a share before items, and full-year earnings of between $5.25 and $5.65 a share. Wall Street analysts had previously estimated Priceline would earn $1.29 a share for its second quarter and $5.11 a share for its entire fiscal year.
"Priceline is proving out as the most defensive 'Net stock," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney said in a research note. Mahaney raised his full-year earnings estimates on Priceline to $5.59 a share and lifted his target price on the company's stock to $161 a share. End of Story
Rex Crum is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[la-onda]

UTVG: Q1 EPS 4c vs 2c EPS +95% Y/Y
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 17:28ET

QUARTER RESULTS
Universal Travel Group (UTVG) reported Q1 results ended March 2008. Q1 Revenues were $10.08M; +44.83% vs yr-ago. Q1 EPS was 4c; +95.00% vs yr-ago.

more details:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5670176

nice chart, congrats for all UTVG shareholders

[Se7en]

I'm not a fundamental expert here but when I compare these results with some previous Qtr's, I think they suck! 
Let's hope I'm wrong! 

[AussieTrader]

I'm not a fundamental expert here but when I compare these results with some previous Qtr's, I think they suck! 
Let's hope I'm wrong! 

Hey Se7en, UTVG business model has it's earnings back end loaded. By that I mean the majority of it's business happens in the latter quarters of the year. In Q4 2007 they had I think $17M revenue on $44M total for the year (38% of their annual rev in the final quarter).

The Q1 results need to be viewed in that context.

[Se7en]

Yep Aussie, I read that there's a lot of seasonality in their business.
Technically the chart looks fine, I hope to see some bullish continuation.

[Ramsburg]

David, is that a cup and handle on UTVG?

Hi Se7en,

Yes, UTVG is developing a «Cup with Handle» pattern, which is a Bullish continuation pattern. The «handle» zone should be nothing more than a consolidation, which in this case given the stock volatility and the recent upside breakout could be extended a bit more to the downside, lets say around $2.10/$2.00.
Despite today's ugly candle, the overall chart pattern for UTVG looks good. Probably the stock just needs to consolidate the recent gains from the last few weeks, but I would say that this up trend will have a continuation soon.

I'm not a fundamental expert here but when I compare these results with some previous Qtr's, I think they suck! 
Let's hope I'm wrong! 

Hey Se7en, UTVG business model has it's earnings back end loaded. By that I mean the majority of it's business happens in the latter quarters of the year. In Q4 2007 they had I think $17M revenue on $44M total for the year (38% of their annual rev in the final quarter).

The Q1 results need to be viewed in that context.

Hi Aussie,

From a quick look on the results and seasonality I agree with you.

Trading Plan:
HOLD UTVG.OB

Regards,