DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[ScottishTrader]

Well, it looks like the shorts have pushed hard this morning, and DNDN has lost over 6% on this news.  Something seems fishy with this to me - when you look at the volume, there have been 355,000 "buy" shares and 362,000 "sell" shares, so someone out there is definitely buying into this weakness, and the overwhelming selling pressure isn't there to push the stock down this much.  Not really sure how they manage to manipulate it like this.  But there has definitely been institutional buying interest this morning

The CC is happening right now, and we seem to have bottomed at 6.14.  Let's see whether we get the turnaround.

[Melf Elf]

Scotsman,

Man, I didn't think we'd tank like this, below that 6.40-644 support area.  The bottom of the Kumo is 6.37.  We're now well below all of that support.   

The Basonista Trendline for today comes in at 6.09981, or 6.10.  I'm out if we're going to close below there, or if we do much more tanking.  The low so far is 6.06, so we've violated it intraday, per usual.

[ScottishTrader]

Well we got the hit of my trendline at 6.05-6.06 (maybe slightly different to yours Melf Elf) and at present it sounds like there arre some very heavy block sells around 6.13-6.14, but the good news is that they are being chewed through as we speak, and once they're gone, we should see a push to the upside.  I mean just look at the numbers - at present we have about 730k buys vs. 475k sells for the day and the price has dropped by almost 7% as I write.  There is a huge amount of buying going on at this level, and I think that it will rocket through the rest of the week.

A shame support broke this morning but I think that the tide is turning, and as I wrote this, I just saw that the price finally broke through 6.13-6.14   

Go DNDN!!!

[Melf Elf]

Well we got the hit of my trendline at 6.05-6.06 (maybe slightly different to yours Melf Elf)

Scotsman,

Yeah, I never moved the trendline under the October lows, so mine's a little higher than yours.  That's another one of those little "technical problems:"  should I move the trendline, or not?  I left it because all of the opens and closes remained above it.

Either way, today sure wasn't a good day, closing near the low at, 6.15, on almost 2 million shares. And now that 6.37-6.44 area is resistance again.  Ugh...

Oh, well...the trading day is done...I'm going Trick Or Treating!  Happy Halloween!   

[ScottishTrader]

well DNDN got hammered again this morning, and we're now back at old support 5.88-5.89.  Ugh

I'm still holding, and simply can't believe it has taken such a beating considering the excellent news, but there you go, it's the market, and the shorts have control on this one.

As I wrote this DNDN just broke through this support.  I don\'t think its gonna come back, and think I will have to sell 

[logocovet]

I'm still holding.  Down to 5.70 as I am typing.     Very frustrating to have good news and stock tanks. This isn't even sell the news.  At least in that case we would've seen a runup to the news.  This has just been sell no matter what. 
I would really appreciate an objective post about the trial results from anyone.  I've heard it spun both ways.

1(positive) The results eaffirm the earlier trial that Provegene increases survival time.  The reason this trial didn't show as much a difference in survival time is because of the large crossover rate.  Of the patients that did not crossover, on 5% survived past 36 month.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076683&tid=cege&sid=7076683&mid=22587

2(negative) This trial is not statistically significant in TTP.  The FDA will need more trials for approval. 
http://tinyurl.com/7nmbz%20.

Lastly, read from Yahoo board that UBS has lowered their price target.  Don't know if they are just trying to manipulate the price (they have a huge short position), or they have an actual point.  I think this cold account for today's drup.  This is from UBS:

UBS Investment Research
Dendreon Corp.
D9902A Data Presented - Thesis
Unchanged
! D9902A results and integrated analysis presented
Although Dendreon provided more detailed data from the Provenge D9902A trial
in AIPC, as well as the integrated data from the D9901 and D9902A trials, the
salient points remain, in our view. Neither the D9901 trial nor the D9902A trial
achieved statistical significance on the primary endpoint, time to disease
progression, and the D9902A trial failed on survival in the ITT population as well.
! In our opinion, the Provenge filing strategy bears risk
We believe Dendreon's intention to file a BLA based on the 3-year survival
advantage in the D9901 trial, supported by the D9902A trial, bears significant risk.
In our view, this filing would be based on a secondary analysis from what was
effectively a failed trial, supported by results from another failed trial. Also, we
view the integrated data as redundant, and not likely to offer support.
! We maintain a confirmatory trial is likely to be necessary
We continue to believe a confirmatory trial will be necessary for a regulatory
approval for Provenge, likely the ongoing D9902B trial. However, this trial will be
amended and expanded, and timelines remain ambiguous.
! Valuation: Reduce 2 rating, $2.50 Price Target (from $3.00)
We value DNDN using a comparable company analysis to companies with a
similar risk

[Melf Elf]

Bought at 6.01.  Sold at 6.59, at the top of "last resistance."  Gain: 9.6%

Bought DNDN back at 6.42, in the former 6.40 - 6.44 resistance area.  Stop: a close below The Basonista Trendline, at about 6.09 for today.  Risk: a loss of about 5%, which guarantees me a profit on the two trades, barring a gap down below my stop.

Sold DNDN at 5.76.  Loss: 10.25%.  OUCH!

Scotsman and logocovet,

I hung on this morning after the break of The Basonista Trendline, hoping for a bullish hammer, then a late day rally back above the trendline.  That came down so fast, I didn't even out on the chance to sell to the break of 5.88-5.89.

[logocovet]

Sorry you're ourt Melf Elf, always could use your analysis.  Maybe you'll stick around and look for reentry? 

I'm still in as I didn't have a stop-loss that I meant to put on this stock.  (I didn't think it was necessary after the good trial results came out).  Now that it seems to have bottomed for the day it seems pointless to get out.  I still think chances of FDA approval are good.  It makes logical sense that if the drug has little side effects and increases survivial, the FDA would go for it.  If I had porstate cancer, I'd sure want it and be pressing the FDA to approve it. 

Found an article:

Dendreon trials boost case for cancer drug

By Benjamin J. Romano
Seattle Times business reporter

Dendreon added more evidence Monday to its case for Provenge, the Seattle company's experimental prostate-cancer vaccine.

In a report detailing the combined results of two previously announced clinical trials, the company said that men who received its drug showed three-year survival rates more than twice those of patients receiving a placebo.

Of 147 men given Provenge in the late-stage clinical trials, 33 percent were alive three years later, compared with 15 percent of men on a placebo.

The final results of the combined trials were released at a cancer conference in Paris, quantifying what Dendreon had previously described as a "substantially greater" number of Provenge patients alive at the three-year follow-up.

"This pretty much nails it down," said Paul Latta, an analyst with McAdams Wright Ragen in Seattle. "It basically offers a substantial body of proof of the concept."

Investors, however, pushed Dendreon's stock down 43 cents, or 6.5 percent, to close at $6.16, on more than twice the usual volume. The stock has traded between $4.31 and $13.36 in the past year.

The skepticism could be because Dendreon is "rewriting the book" on immunotherapies such as Provenge, said David Miller, president of Biotech Stock Research in Seattle.

"No drug of this type has ever worked before," said Miller, in Paris for the announcement.

The treatment is designed to stimulate a patient's immune system to attack cancer. It has shown minimal side effects of fever and chills lasting a day or two. That compares to the nausea, hair loss and anemia that accompany the standard late-stage therapy, chemotherapy.

Dr. Mitchell Gold, Dendreon president and CEO, said during a conference call with analysts Monday that Provenge is "a better tolerated and less active form of therapy."

Dr. Celestia Higano, a University of Washington professor who presented the data, said the treatment could be a "useful alternative for men prior to initiating chemotherapy."

Dendreon plans to seek approval for the treatment from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration next year; a decision could come a year later.

More than 1 million men have prostate cancer in the United States. It kills 30,000 annually.

McAdams Wright Ragen, which maintains a market in Dendreon stock, projects Provenge sales of $225 million in 2007 if the drug gets FDA approval.

[ScottishTrader]

I wouldn't be surprised if down the line it does get approved, despite UBS's negative comments, and downgrades - really quite astounding

But for now what is clear is that the bears/shorts are in control here.  Earnings will be announced on Friday (which will be negative, but may give another opportunity to publicise results).  The fact that the stock tanked on this news, and broke all low support today forced me to sell.  I cannot hang on for more great news at some point in the future.  I would advise you to think carefully about how much pain you are willing to take on this one logocovet, I only speak from recent experience of stocks that have broken key support, which I have held on too long.

Out at 5.80, and thoroughly disappointed.

[Melf Elf]

Sorry you're ourt Melf Elf, always could use your analysis.  Maybe you'll stick around and look for reentry? 

logocovet,

Despite yesterday's tank in the stock, I've really enjoyed the exchanges with everyone on this thread. I'll keep my eye on DNDN, although I suspect that it's going to be on the back burner for awhile.  Sorry that this one didn't work out for us.

I still think chances of FDA approval are good.  It makes logical sense that if the drug has little side effects and increases survivial, the FDA would go for it.  If I had porstate cancer, I'd sure want it and be pressing the FDA to approve it. 

I would, too!   

I'm still in as I didn't have a stop-loss that I meant to put on this stock.  (I didn't think it was necessary after the good trial results came out).

DNDN, technically, has tough going from here.  Support not only was broken, it was broken on fairly heavy volume.   All of those support areas that we've discussed are now resistance.  The 5.88-5.89.  The Basonista Trendline.  The 6.40-6.44 area, etc.

Up to you of course, but I agree with The Scotsman, from a technical point of view.  You might want to consider selling on a rally back to resistance, then re-enter at a better price.  Unless DNDN would get FDA approval, the chart doesn't look like its going anywhere for awhile.

Good luck with whatever you decide!   

[logocovet]

I was holding this a least till the CC today.  News seems to be good as DNDN beat estimates fwith a EPS of -33 cents. (Wow  )

But seriously, this is good since it reduces the companies burn rate.  This is key b/c they have no products (or close to none) and no partner.   They have 127 mil in the bank.  With a burn rate of about 20 mil a quarter, they can operate for another year and a half.

I've been reading alot of good posts on the Yahoo message board.  DNDN has one of the most scientific boards I've ever read.  I do believe the chances of approval are good.  The key rests with increased survival rate and no side effects.  The FDA is becoming more and more of a political entity.  So, how could they deny people with prostate cancer this treatment?  Some scientific explamation of how Provenge did not meet primary endpoint is not going to cut it in. 

I have had some pretty poor results when I try to do short term trading.   Until I have a better grasp of TA, I'll be a buy and hold trader on fundmentals.  It has served me pretty well.

Having said that, I do have a $5 stop on DNDN.  Can't let it get too far away.

[Michael]

I wouldn't be surprised if down the line it does get approved, despite UBS's negative comments, and downgrades - really quite astounding

But for now what is clear is that the bears/shorts are in control here.

Hi Scotsman and Logocovet,

SO very true that the Bears and shorts are in control but I wouldn't be surprised if they start loosing control soon. You can only hold down a stock with such a potential as DNDN for a certain time. As said before DNDN is executing their Businessplan with excellence and today they reached another milestone. FDA gave fast track status for Provenge  . They would hardly do that if they were not impressed by the results from the Phase III trials.

DNDN got a little boost today from the fast track status approval but we have a long way to go before we are even close to fair value. It might take month or it might take a year but we will get there. Sooner or later even UBS will have to accept defeat.

[ScottishTrader]

Firmly agreed, Michael

Having sold out last week for a loss, based on the technical breakdown, which was truly appalling, and shows just how heavily manipulated this sock is, I realised this morning that there is no way they can keep DNDN down for much longer, and so bought back in.  This is major news, and once some of the other analysts start to pick DNDN up, UBS will have to follow suit and revise their position. 

I am very confident that DNDN will push upwards in the coming days, as it is currently below where it started last week, and the news of the last week has been simply huge.  This time I do not intend to get shaken out by short sellers - they willl simply add more fule to the fire

Thinking about it now, maybe DNDN should have been my pick for the stock picking contest!! Would have been a good one (and I don't think anyone did???)

Go DNDN!!

[logocovet]

Finally, something good with my stocks.   DNDN, CKCM, SVA, HEB all up today 

I'm curious how significant fast track status is?  Is is a wink by the FDA that they like the medication, or do all drugs that cater to difficult to treat ailments get it?

I do like an article  I read on the Yahoo board today.  It said that the FDA is not very stringent when it comes to cancer medications (link below).  As long as it provides moderate benefit and have not so severe side effects, it will get approval.  This is great for DNDN.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/07/news/fortune500/cancer/index.htm

We are now awaiting BOA's rating for DNDN.  Recent news seem like a perfect chance for BOA to come out with a buy or outperform. They waited for a reason, and all the recent news are good.   I mean there can't be that much downside left on this stock as book value is about $2.75.   Plus all the shorts need to cover sometime. 

Good luck all.

[bigdogs99999]

Fast track is good, but was clearly anticipated when the BLA filing was announced by DNDN.  Shows that management is telling the truth though!