DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

 
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=search2

[stockpicker]

any comments?

nice trend in the last couple of days, but fundamentally, it has a LONG LONG way to go

[Melf Elf]

This is my "baby"...

any comments?

Stockpicker,

When anyone announces, "This is my baby," then asks for comments, I wonder if anyone is going to say, "Okay, I'll comment.  You've got one of the UGLIEST babies I've ever seen!"

 

DNDN has been an ug-ug-ugly baby since last summer, which I'm sure you realize, but I understand that you're holding it for the long-term.

nice trend in the last couple of days, but fundamentally, it has a LONG LONG way to go

Yes, DNDN has made an interesting move over the past couple of weeks, so maybe it's ready to turn from an ugly duckling into a swan, huh?

 

I've liked the Provenge story since DNDN was a 3SOF pick, but I'm a technical analyst, and the chart has looked awful for more than six months.  I've followed the technicals for a long time in the DNDN folder on the "Previous Picks" Board, and was about to update it when I saw your post.  I'll post some comments in that folder next.

Applause for the information that you presented.

The shorts have created an unbelievable imbalance here, IMHO - and I encourage you guys to check it.

As of the May reporting, the short interest was down something like 8% for the month.  15 days to cover, so short-covering should  be of some help on any rally.

Good luck with your position.  I can see why you think that DNDN is a decent "buy and hold."  Thanks again for your analysis.

[Melf Elf]

DNDN still is in full-blown bearish "knife catching" mode, and no sign of capitulation on volume, however yesterday's break below the down-sloping channel looks "Wolfe Wave-ish."

That move down ended the next day, May 3, in a Wave 5 "fakeout" to the downside.

 

May 7 is six months since fast track status for Provenge, which produced a top in DNDN at 6.22.   May 9 is earnings.

May 10 was a high at 4.15, prior to a move down to a new low at 3.68, which "could be" a DOUBLE fakeout low.  We'll take a closer look at the "possible" Bulish Wolfe Wave in the next post.

[Melf Elf]

What I liked best about Wolfe Waves when calven first presented them late in 2005 was the concept of "imbalance" at the Wave 5 fakeout.  It's "overdone" either to the upside or downside, but we need confirmation of that.

Absent the two downside fakeouts on this chart, the pattern is a good old-fashioned Bullish Falling Wedge, or in Elliott Wave Theory parlance, an "Ending Diagonal."  Again, we need confirmation of that.

1. After the fakeout at Wave 5, DNDN rallied to 4.15, just below the Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which was at 4.165.

There were lots of bullish divergences in technical indicators, such as RSI and MACD.  What we wantED to see after that "thrust" to 4.15, was for DNDN to hold either at the bottom of the Wolfe Wave on any selloff, or at least to hold at the Wave 5 low.

It did neither.

"Bullish divergences without price confirmation are meaningless."

2. At the May 16 "double fakeout" low of 3.68, we had more bullish divergences in technical indicators, but again, we want to see PRICE do something bullish to confirm that.

a. On May 23, DNDN rallied to 4.05, slightly above the Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which was at 4.025.  4.05 (purple horizontal line) also was the high of May 15, prior to the drop to the "double fakeout" low of 3.68.  From that second high of 4.05, we wanted to see the bottom of the Wolfe Wave hold on that selloff.

We wanted to see 4.05 get taken out after that.

b. On May 23, DNDN opened at the bottom of the Wolfe Wave, held, and rallied.  BULLISH

c. On May 25, DNDN rallied to 4.05.

d. On May 26, DNDN opened at 4.05, sold off  to where the Tenkan-Sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) were converging, then it rallied and took out 4.05. BULLISH

e. Also on May 26, DNDN took out 4.15, the high prior to "the double fakeout." BULLISH

3. Now we wanted to see DNDN get to the top of the Wolfe Wave, and take it out.  It did that yesteday, May 30, but it also ran into tons of resistance, and sold off into the close on a Bearish-looking Inverted Hangman.

Resistance:

1. Top of the Wolfe Wave at 4.32

2. The Kumo (Cloud) - (Vertical Red lines) at 4.37-4.60

3. Down trendline (dotted red line) at 4.46

Summary:

The takeouts of 4.05 and 4.15 are the first short-term BULLISH things that DNDN has done in a long time.  4.05 and 4.15 both were resistance, and they now "should" act as support on any pullback.

DNDN then "should" start attacking the overhead resistance enumerated above.

[la-onda]

DNDN: Short Interest DN 8.6% to 11.3M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN) DECREASED 8.6% to 11,275,415 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
DNDN          12,340,614      11,275,415      -1,065,199        -8.63%          16

Based on DNDN's 20-day average daily share volume of 745,690, it would require approximately 16 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[stockpicker]

Melf Elf, any comment about "my baby" is highly appreciated. Moreover, I would take the negative ones very seriously and will be happy to try and challenge negative views - and obviously there are negative fundamental issues to be considered.

I read your other post on the "Previous Picks" board, and frankly speaking, I did not understand ANYTHING. Just from curiosity, where do you see DNDN in the near/mid/long term from now? I doubt if a penny more or a nickle less in the closing price (or intraday PPC) has ANY meaning, especially with this highly manipulated stock. All one had to do was to look at today's close, as the shorts held to the 4.51 (if i am not mistaken) dispate large buying blocks in the last 10 mins, as if moving the price up is so bad for the sellers (well, if this is not manipulation, what is price manipulation)

[Melf Elf]

I read your other post on the "Previous Picks" board, and frankly speaking, I did not understand ANYTHING.

Stockpicker,

Sorry about that.  I probably didn't explain it very well.  The gist was that the short-term picture for DNDN haD changed to BULLISH.

Just from curiosity, where do you see DNDN in the near/mid/long term from now?

My targets are derived from the patterns.   From November 1, 2005 until May 26, 2006, DNDN was bearish in all time-frames: short/mid/long-term.  All of the targets were to the downside, as you can see from this chart.  There are black arrows where the patterns broke to the downside.

The print of 4.06 on May 26, 2006 was a bullish breakout of an Ascending Triangle.  For the first time in seven months, that turned the short-term picture bullish.   I'll explain that on the Previous Picks Board where I've posted charts since last year, if you're interested.

Good luck with DNDN, Stockpicker. 

[Melf Elf]

d. On May 26, DNDN opened at 4.05, sold off  to where the Tenkan-Sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) were converging, then it rallied and took out 4.05. BULLISH

The takeout of 4.05 was an Ascending Triangle breakout that put Target: 4.42 IN PLAY.  The target MADE exactly on May 31, 2006, which also was Bullish Falling Wedge/Bullish Wolfe Wave breakout, and the target was exceeded yesterday, June 1.

Math:

4.05 - The highs of May 15, May 23 and May 25 (flat top of the Ascending Triangle).
3.68 - The low of the pattern

4.05 - 3.68 = 0.37 points added back to 4.05 = Target: 4.42 IN PLAY

Resistance:

1. Top of the Wolfe Wave at 4.32

2. The Kumo (Cloud) - (Vertical Red lines) at 4.37-4.60

3. Down trendline (dotted red line) at 4.46

The Kumo (Cloud) has dropped in the past couple of days.  The top of it is at 4.445.   DNDN closed yesterday at 4.51, above all of that resistance.  That's an impressive performance in an overall down market.  DNDN is up 22.55% off its May 16 low.

Next resistance is right here, at 4.54, the highs of April 19 and 20.   Then 4.90.

[Melf Elf]

Dendreon reports positive Phase 2 study on Provenge

By Simon Kennedy
Last Update: 6:43 AM ET Jun 7, 2006

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Biotechnology company Dendreon Corp. (DNDN : dendreon corp com

DNDN said the Phase 2 study of its Provenge prostate cancer treatment in combination with Avastin showed the combined treatment significantly increased the prostate-specific antigen doubling time, which is a key predictor of a patient's prognosis. "These findings support our hypothesis that Provenge may have a significant impact on the progression of patients with recurrent disease," Dendreon said.   

[la-onda]

just fyi:

HOM: Sanders Morris Ups to Strong Buy from Buy; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, June 07, 2006 09:00 ET
Issuer: Home Solutions of America Inc (AMEX: HOM)
Analyst Firm:  Sanders Morris Harris Group
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Strong Buy (from Buy)
Analyst Comments: The firm cites recent weakness in the shares which they believe was based on erroneous and self-serving information produced from an Internet blog.

[willey]

DNDN under accumulation now thanks to latest news, in my opinion

biotech's in general have made a turn for the better ( in part, thanks to DNA - one of my fav's ).....believe the biotech index BTK signals renewed buyer interest in many bio's

good trading to all

willey

[Melf Elf]

DNDN under accumulation now thanks to latest news, in my opinion

willey,

Yes, DNDN made a low at 3.68 on May 16, right when the NASDAQ was breaking down.  It's been doing some nice base-building, and has two bullish patterns (see chart).

DNDN is up 31% from its May 16 low while the NASDAQ still is down from there.  Good relative strength..

Next resistance is right here, at 4.54, the highs of April 19 and 20.   Then 4.90.

DNDN made a high of 4.84 the next session, June 5, and is right there again at Friday's close of 4.84.

The 50DMA (dotted green) and 200DMAs (dotted red) are badly inverted, so this might need some more time for the 50 DMA to play a little catch-up, but the chart looks good.  More backing and filling would strengthen the chart for a breakout.

[la-onda]

I have bought some shares on Monday 


DNDN: JMP Sec Ups to Strong Buy from Mkt Outperform; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, July 05, 2006 07:51 ET
Issuer: Dendreon Corporation (NasdaqNM: DNDN)
Analyst Firm:  JMP Securities
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Strong Buy (from Mkt Outperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm is upgrading shares as they believe that the publication of the company's Phase III Provenge study has increased the chances of approval. Price target 12 $

[Melf Elf]

Gap up opening, above the Ascending Triangle (pattern in green...see July 3 chart above).  Target: 6.00 is IN PLAY.

DNDN: JMP Sec Ups to Strong Buy from Mkt Outperform

Price target 12 $[/b]