DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

+ 8.5 % pre market 

[Melf Elf]

This looks to be the news that caused the breakout (beyond strict technicals....)

Scotsman,

Thanks for that news.  Applause.

+ 8.5 % pre market

DNDN is indicated to Gap Up, currently BID 5.72...ASK 5.74, near our 5.88 IN PLAY 

[la-onda]

have you read the download file?

1. The data got much better after censoring non-PC-related deaths. The p-value improves to p=.002 instead of p=.01. This p-value means that the chance that Provenge is a fluke is 1 in 500! And this is straight log-rank, no Cox regression involved.
2. Halabi nomograms show that there were no imbalances in prognostic factors. This uses historical data so it's complementary to the use of Cox regression as previously done with the 9901 data itself.
3. Chart 18 absolutely destroys the early chemo argument for treated patients. That chart shows the times when patients started chemotherapy. The Provenge curve is clearly above the placebo curve. That reinforces the notion that people naturally avoid chemo as long as they feel that their health remains good. People treated with Provenge certainly behaved that way.
4. Chart 26 shows what the label will look like for Provenge. It will be frontline for AIPC before any chemos. A point was made that this is not to make chemo obsolete. That likely means that Dr. Petrylak's presentation next month will further show that chemos after Provenge substantially increase the probability of survival.

http://investor.dendreon.com/downloads/22568dndn.pdf


sounds very promising and good IMO

and DON`T FORGET THE SHORTS COVERING:
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=dndn&submit=Enter

20 days 

[ScottishTrader]

Woo hoo!!!

Alright, I'm back with you guys, just managed to get filled at 5.27-5.28!!!!

No idea  what went on there but I like it!!

Go DNDN 

[ScottishTrader]

Anyone have any idea what is going on???

The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!

[kslifka]

May be because of options expiration today

Anyone have any idea what is going on???

The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!

[kslifka]

I really need to wake up earlier and sell these small news related gappers.

[ScottishTrader]

I know, my earlier woo hoo is swiftly turning into an oh dear...

DNDN you vexing devil you 

[Melf Elf]

IDNDN you vexing devil you 

Sure is, Scotsman!  Yeesh! 

Sold remaining 75% of my position at 5.07 for a 10.7% gain.  Gain on the trade: 11.3%.

It's a better gain than I had holding for 4 months, but it's ver-ry disappointing.

We got to 5.77, eleven cents shy of our target, so that could be it on the upside for awhile.  Volume already is about 5 time average 100 day, and it's on a "Gap To Crap" reversal.  If we close below yesterday's open of 4.90, it's not just a reversal, it's a Key Reversal, which generally, is pretty bearish.

Good luck, guys!

[kslifka]

Man does someone want to keep this stock around $5.   

[stockpicker]

May be because of options expiration today

Anyone have any idea what is going on???

The first 10 minutes trading have been totally insane!!!
The pps is all over the place and 750k traded already!!

I don't think that over 3 MILLION traded shares has much to do with slightly over 1,000 open contracts. Option expy day was only an excuse for the Hedgies to pull down the price to the $5 level. They will likely move it a bit lower at the beginning of the week, but the FUNDAMENTAL data of DNDN keeps getting better and better, so FUNDAMENTAL-based demand will eventually break the shorts.

Some (fundamental) points to consider:

1. 50,000 patients a year in the US (AIPC - late stage PCa)
2. Cost of treatment - not less than $45,000/patient (equivalent to other advanced cancer drugs)
3. Competition: only chemotherapy - over 50% of the patients do not take it due to its horrible side effects

Now for some speculations:

1. As an urologist/oncologist - will you recommend Provenge or chemo to your patient know the:
a. side effects of chemotheraphy
b. the side effects of Provenge (1-2 days of fever and chills)
c. Survival data -- I assume 65% penetration within 2 years
d. Typical biotechs are traded at 8-15x peak revenues. Due to the higher manufacturing cost of Provenge - I will take the low end.
e. peak revenues in 2 years - I will apply a 35% for this

So ... if we sum it all in case of approval:

Revenue: $45,000 x 50,000 x 65% = $1.25 BILLION
Market cap: $1.25B * 8 * 0.65 = $6 BILLION

Today's market cap: $400 MILLION

So ... Wall-Street believes that there are 6-7% approval chances - I believe that they are WAY WAY wrong.

As some of you know, I basically ignore T/A and follow fundamentals. As such, DNDN has to be traded around $20 PRIOR to the FDA decision and could be as high as $80 POST approval.

It seems more and more that DNDN is the real thing!

[stockpicker]

all about DNDN:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10507&pt=msg&mid=725586

This is THE Real Deal!

[la-onda]

up again 

[Terliso]

I'm still holding this stock

The weaks got shaked out last week
---- I suspect DNDN will close above the red candle this week (weekly chart)

[Terliso]

I'm still holding this stock

The weaks got shaked out last week
---- I suspect DNDN will close above the red candle this week (weekly chart)

Just a little bit above 6.00 is still in play from Symmetrical Triangle Breakout