DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[stockpicker]

I know that you guys are mainly T/A professionals, but the story behind DNDN is (probably) for real. This is an INVESTMENT, and if approved (mid 2007), this is a $50 stock.

I am NOT trying to hype ... believe me ... really ... ;-)

This is a great FUNDAMENTAL analysis of DNDN - it is WORTH reading!

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=10625&pt=msg&mid=730972

[Melf Elf]

I'm still holding this stock

The weaks got shaked out last week

Alister,

Interesting comment.

I'm one of the "weaks" who sold the big volume reversal candle. 

I had plenty of opportunities to get back in at a lower price, on the successful re-test of the top of the big Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black).

Although the top of the pattern got violated intraday, October 24 and 25 were long-tailed Bullish Hammers that closed above the top of the pattern.   October 26, although a black candle, sitll was a close above the top of the pattern.  That looked pretty good.

I sold for the second time in a month at 5.07 on October 20, on the big volume reversal.  I've got a gain of 19.3% on the two trades, so I've got some "house money" to play with.  I sure thought about re-entering when the top of the Symmetrical Triangle continued to hold last week, on a closing basis. 

But, I decided to pass, due to the proximity of the big volume reversal candle.  It was on 5 times 100 day average volume.  That's a good bit of nearby resistance.  DNDN made some progress into that area on Tuesday and yesterday, but succumbed to selling pressure and finished out yesterday on a Dark-Cloud cover (Opened higher...finished well into the prior day's white candle).

Technically, the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) target of 5.88 still is IN PLAY as long as DNDN is trading above the pattern, so that's fine, but the rally off the October 25 low of 4.67 is looking like a Bear Flag rally into that October 20 big volume reversal resistance.

We'll see how it plays out from here.  I'm watching from the sidelines.

Good luck!

[la-onda]

just fyi:
Dendreon initiated with "neutral"
Thursday, November 02, 2006 8:47:57 AM ET
Banc of America
NEW YORK, November 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Banc of America Securities initiate coverage of Dendreon (DNR.FSE) with a "neutral" rating. The target price is set to $6.

[Melf Elf]

DNDN made some progress into that area on Tuesday and yesterday, but succumbed to selling pressure and finished out yesterday on a Dark-Cloud Cover (Opened higher...finished well into the prior day's white candle).

DNDN followed through to the downside yesterday, off the Dark-Cloud Cover.

Technically, the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) target of 5.88 still is IN PLAY as long as DNDN is trading above the pattern, so that's fine

5.88 still is IN PLAY, but...

the rally off the October 25 low of 4.67 is looking like a Bear Flag rally into that October 20 big volume reversal resistance.

The Bear Flag got broken to the downside, confirming in the short-term that the low end of the Big Volume Reversal Candlle was resistance. 

But, I decided to pass, due to the proximity of the big volume reversal candle.  It was on 5 times 100 day average volume.  That's a good bit of nearby resistance.

Some buyers of that Reversal candle used the Bear Flag rally to 5.14 as an opportunity to sell, so at the moment,  DNDN looks to be working off that "overhang of resistance."

The low of that candle was 4.92.  Yesterday's close was back below it, at 4.84.

Nearby Resistance: 4.92

On a rally today, the bottom of the Bear Flag comes in at 4.92667 , right at the 4.92 low of the Big Volume Reversal Candle. 

Anything above 4.92 , DNDN is back to working off the "overhang of resistance" in the Big Volume Reversal Candle.

Nearby Support:

4.735 - The Top of the July - October Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black)

4.67 - DOUBLE support: It's the low of the Bear Flag; it's also the 50DMA

[Melf Elf]

Nearby Resistance: 4.92

On a rally today, the bottom of the Bear Flag comes in at 4.92667 , right at the 4.92 low of the Big Volume Reversal Candle. 

Anything above 4.92 , DNDN is back to working off the "overhang of resistance" in the Big Volume Reversal Candle.

The open was 4.90.

The close was 4.93.

That's a respectable effort on the part of the Bulls, after the downside break of the Bear Flag.  They managed to close the day out "at the bottom rung" of DOUBLE resistance, and just a fraction above the bottom of the Bear Flag.  That at least shows some heart.  Bulls weren't willing to give it up to the downside.

But, the fact remains that DNDN closed at DOUBLE resistance. 

There still are a lot of Bulls trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle, from 4.92 on up to 5.77, and on any further rally from here, many of them will be sellers, making upside progress difficult.

In gerneral:

"The closer reistance is in time, the more difficult it is to overcome."

The Big Volume Reversal Candle was only two weeks ago, so we've got quite a few willing and anxious sellers.

Given:

1. The Big Volume Reversal Candle

2. The break of the Bear Flag

3. Friday's close at DOUBLE resistance

The path of least resistance, short-term, is down for:

1. A second re-test of the top of the Big Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black)

2. A Double-Bottom, at or near 4.67

3. A tag of the 50DMA

4. An opportunity for the longs trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle to sell to "stronger hands," which also would create distance in time since the Reversal.

That's how I would like to see this play out, but we don't always get what we would like.    

The Bulls did step up to the plate at Friday's close, so they very well could start banging away at the Big Volume Reversal candle next week.

Next, I'll show you an example in which that's exactly what happened.

[Melf Elf]

GIGM had a nasty Big Volume Reversal at August earnings, down 22.6% from that day's high.

After the three day selloff, GIGM began to recover, but it looked to me like a Bear Flag rally (pattern in green) into the Big Volume Reversal Candle, very similar to what we've got in DNDN.

I wasn't at all interested in the long side of GIGM, at that point, but Frederick and Aussie sure caught a big winner early!

Surprisingly (at least to me), GIGM broke out of the "Bear Flag" to the UPSIDE in late August! 

Bear Flags/Bearish Channels, after a downside reversal like GIGM had, "usually" resolve to the downside.  Great example of how there is no ALWAYS, as far as patterns and indicators, etc.

This chart also is a great example of FOLLOW the market...listen to the message of the market.  We don't always get it, but often the message is clear, like it was in this example.

Many of you will remember my post in the GIGM folder that, it not only broke out to the upside, the stock had THREE successive, successful re-tests of the breakout, at 9.43...9.46...and, 9.49 (it doesn't look like it, because this Candlevolume chart throws it off a bit).

As a result, September 7 was the MONSTER white candle explosion to the upside on "no news," but technically, this chart was packing some punch with the channel breakout, and with the THREE successful re-tests of the top of the channel.  The volume even was greater than the Reversal candle, at August earnings!

Unusal for it to have resolved bullishly after the Bearish Volume Reversal Candle, but we can see, technically, how it did it.

Bottom line:  I'm not counting the Bulls out in DNDN. 

I'm just not joining them right here at DOUBLE resistance.  Still on the sidelines, but cheering for the Bulls. 

  GO DNDN, YOU LITTLE DEVIL! 

[Terliso]

DNDN

[Terliso]

I've been trying hard to look for a stock that just close above 50sma weekly scale in 1 to 3 weeks in a row (or bounce off from 50sma) .... I think DNDN will give me some nice profits here .... IMHO

TGB is a good example of "bounce off from 50sma"

[stockpicker]

4. An opportunity for the longs trapped in the Big Volume Reversal candle to sell to "stronger hands," which also would create distance in time since the Reversal.

Not sure if you have following the trading on the day that DNDN hit $5.72 - it was an early morning spike (5 mins or so, based on REAL POSITIVE news) which was hammered by the shorts. The shorts capped DNDN ALL DAY LONG at the $5.00-$5.50 range, so very few traders actually bought DNDN above $5.05.

OTOH, it seems that in the last 2 days there is some accumulation going on

DNDN is the REAL DEAL (though risky!) if we talk fundamentals - if interested, you guys may want to check the following DNDN - FACT SHEET link:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=11625&pt=msg&mid=773201

This is TRULY an amazing story

Again, I know nothing about T/A, but I do know that the story i

[Terliso]

DNDN will make an announcement of their third quarter results tomorrow
.....I'm not going to ride through earnings, I'm out for now for 7% profit

Good trading!!

[stockpicker]

There are no "earnings" to report in DNDN - there will be no surprises regarding the burn rate.

The company will announce if they are still on schedule to submit the final third of the BLA to the FDA (no news is good news here). Any other news (P-11 trial data, int'l partnership) could be HUGE HUGE. Long term investors will listen closely to the Q&A for other hints.

This is a big story and could be worth much more than a quick trade - though it is always nice to make a buck or two .... ;-)

[Melf Elf]

Not sure if you have following the trading on the day that DNDN hit $5.72 - it was an early morning spike (5 mins or so, based on REAL POSITIVE news) which was hammered by the shorts. The shorts capped DNDN ALL DAY LONG at the $5.00-$5.50 range, so very few traders actually bought DNDN above $5.05.

stockpicker,

A stock can't be shorted unless there are buyers, because of the uptick rule on shorting.  If a stock is tanking...tanking...tanking...there can't be any shorting.

But, you make a good point.  Including the prior day, there only are about 8 candles on the hourly chart in which trading was over $5.00, so that overhead supply could have been worked off on the selloff to, and successful re-test of, the top of the big Symmetical Triangle. 

That would have been a nice re-entry, as we can see now, but I didn't take it.  Not only because of the Big Reversal Candle, but I held this stock for four months, mired in all of the "pattern morphing" of the Big Symmetrical Triangle.  I decided to content myself with the 19.3% gain in my two trades.

Good luck!  I hope that this goes higher for those of you long.  We've all spent a lot of time studying this one, technically and fundamentally, and you all deserve a nice gain on it.

Nice trade, Alister! 

[la-onda]

fyi:
Dendreon 3Q Loss Widens
Wednesday November 8, 8:01 am ET
Dendreon Posts Wider 3rd-Quarter Loss

SEATTLE (AP) -- Cancer-treatment developer Dendreon Corp. posted a wider third-quarter loss Wednesday as an increase in operating expenses offset a rise in sales.
The company's quarterly loss totaled $20.7 million, or 29 cents per share, compared with $19.7 million, or 33 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue jumped 45 percent to $84,000 form $58,000 last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a loss of 29 cents per share on sales of $100,000.
Total operating expenses rose to $21.7 million from $21 million a year ago.

[ScottishTrader]

Financials look basically in line with expectations.  Not much action in the PM either.  I think a lot could ride on the conference call, and their comments about BLA developement.  Still I like fact that we have had a breakout and sucessful re-test of that symmetrical traingle, which puts a target of about 6.25 in play.  Hopefully DNDN should see some solid action today.

[stockpicker]

You guys have missed the MORE important PR regarding the top-line of the phase-3 P-11 study for EARLY STAGE prostate cancer:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061108/sfw066.html?.v=81


Highlights:

1. No safety issues (as expected) - but VERY important

2. Clear (stat-sig) immunology and biochemical responses

3. Too soon to determine any CLINICAL response - this data will be
available in the coming year+


As for the market, well, we had a nice run-up in the last couple of
days and at the beginning of today's trading. Short term PPS is
always problematic in DNDN due to manipulation, but all I care is
the long run. Note that the early-stage prostate cancer is 4x bigger
than late stage (the current BLA application), and that Bank of
America's recent research study estimates Provenge revenues (for
late stage) at $2 billion ... so go figure why DNDN is traded at
$400MM mkt cap.


Disclosure: I have added a few more shares today after seeing the
results.

... and remember, I am for the LONG RUN