DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

DNDN got spanked yesterday, for that break of important support.

Next support is 4.37  (November 16 spike low) and 4.30-4.35  (lows of the Green Falling Wedge).

No support there, on the technical selling, which further damages the chart.  4.30 - 4.37 now is near-term resistance. 

Yesterday's high: 4.37

Yesterday's close: 4.30

It would have been nice if DNDN had been that exact about hitting our 5.88 target that was IN PLAY. 

Grumble...Grumble...Grumble....    

[Melf Elf]

DNDN continues to make progress on the downside.

Tuesday, it closed below 4.15-4.16 recent support.  Yesterday's high was 4.15 (former support was resistance), then DNDN closed below the August low of 4.09.

UGH. 

3.78 and 3.64 are IN PLAY.  If those targets get MADE, I'm half a mind to close my eyes and buy it, DNDN has been trading so well on the technicals.

On the downside, unfortunately. 

[Melf Elf]

DNDN continues to make progress on the downside.

Tuesday, it closed below 4.15-4.16 recent support.  Yesterday's high was 4.15 (former support was resistance), then DNDN closed below the August low of 4.09.

UGH. 

3.78 and 3.64 are IN PLAY.  If those targets get MADE, I'm half a mind to close my eyes and buy it, DNDN has been trading so well on the technicals.

On the downside, unfortunately. 

The 3.78 target MADE in the final hour this afternoon.

3.64 still is IN PLAY.

[ScottishTrader]

crums...

Whatever happened to ol' DNDN, it really is in the house of pain once again.  Looks like it could be ripe for a reversal down here though...

[Melf Elf]

crums...

Whatever happened to ol' DNDN, it really is in the house of pain once again.

Scotsman,

I'd say that players got tired of being vexed by this stock, just like we did.   

Looks like it could be ripe for a reversal down here though...

That's what I'm thinking, too. 

Yesterday was a nice Bullish Doji Star Hammer if it can get some follow-thru to the upside.  I was disappointed to see that rally into the close, though, because I'd like to see 3.64-3.68 .  That's the Double Top target and the May low, respectively.

Oliver,
I need some good news at those conferences, so that they quit flirting with my 4.39 stop. 
Stopped it out at 4.39.   Gain: 8.1%

I made some on that sale, after holding DNDN for 4 months.

Sold remaining 75% of my position at 5.07 for a 10.7% gain. 

Gain on the trade: 11.3%.
It's a better gain than I had holding for 4 months, but it's ver-ry disappointing.

That sale of the "Gap To Crap" gave me a 19.4% gain on the two trades, so I've got some house money to play with.  I worked HARD for that money, though, so I'm not real fond of the idea of handing it back. 

If we get  near 3.64-3.68, though, I'd become more interested.   That's also in the analyst's 3.50 target area that REALDEALS mentioned back in November, but 3.50 is in "Falling Knife" zone. 

The big risk in this stock is that Hell yawns below 3.68.  There's no support, going back FOUR YEARS, so I'd want to see some evidence that it's put in a bottom.

And, I'd want someone to hold my hand while I'm long, to reassure me. 

[ScottishTrader]

I'll be looking for reversal confirmation on DNDN, that doji star sets the benchmarks quite nicely.  but htis time I think it will only be a small position, DNDN has vexed us too many times!!!

It may also be worth having a bit of a recap on their progress and timelines for Provenge, the concern being that this hasn't simply been a technical decline, but there may well be serious underlying fundamental reasons too.  Hmmm.... I'll have a look into it.

I ain't gonna hold your hand, and I don't think you need anyone to, but I will certainly do my best to contribute what I can on this one.

Cheers Melf,

ST

[ScottishTrader]

OK,  here is the first potential near term driver, which should be coming up in the next couple of days and will almost certainly move this stock in a major way:

From thestreet.com

This also will be a busy year for Dendreon (DNDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), as the Food and Drug Administration begins its review of the company's experimental prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge. On or about Jan. 12, Dendreon should hear whether the Provenge application was accepted and whether it will be granted a priority (six-month) review.

If so, the next big event likely will be an FDA advisory panel meeting to discuss the Provenge clinical data. You might see such a panel scheduled in March or April.

To date, investors -- and many prostate cancer doctors -- have been skeptical about Provenge's chances for FDA approval. The biggest hang-up: While efficacy data suggest that Provenge can prolong survival of men with advanced, hormone-refractory prostate cancer, the clinical data generated so far is a bit sparse. Still, there is ample room for debate over this issue, which should make the advisory panel a certain highlight for biotech investors this year.

They are anticipating to hear news from the FDA by the end of this week, which will certainly cause a big move one way or the other.  So entering a position right now will really be betting on whether they get this acceptance and priority review.  Its dangerous, but if it is accepted for a review, we could easily see a 30% or so move, which would put DNDN back to around $5-5.40.  Downside risk of negative news, as always, is just.... scary. 

Take your pick... I onlyy wish I didn't like these high risk plays so much 

[Melf Elf]

OK,  here is the first potential near term driver, which should be coming up in the next couple of days and will almost certainly move this stock in a major way:

From thestreet.com

This also will be a busy year for Dendreon (DNDN - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), as the Food and Drug Administration begins its review of the company's experimental prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge. On or about Jan. 12,

Scotsman,

Thanks for that information.  Applause. 

Interesting.

Take your pick... I onlyy wish I didn't like these high risk plays so much 

I know. 

I ain't gonna hold your hand, and I don't think you need anyone to, but I will certainly do my best to contribute what I can on this one.

No, that wasn't a good idea.  You'd crush my teeny tiny tarsals.   

[ScottishTrader]

Hey Melf,

Soo.... did you dip your teeny tiny tarsals into DNDN?  I thought it was worth giving it a go on Wednesday, as we had a nice solid reversal candle, and picked some up at 3.97.  Stop on the trade is currently at 3.72, giving a risk of 6.3%, barring a gap down.  Having a look at the chart it looks to me like DNDN has been forming a bullish WolfeWave.  The lead-in is good (negative), descending wedge with valid points 1-4 and a reversal downside fakeout at point 5.  I put the WW target at around 4.45, currently, giving about a  12% gain from my entry.

Any thoughts?  Still no news from DNDN yet, whether this may come today or not remains to be seen, but so far it has been acting well.  Currently hitting 4.20 resistance.

Lets se how this goes, I'm tempted to put in a limit order to sell a portion at my WW target and see if it hits.  If the news is positive, I anticipate DNDN going much higher though.

[Melf Elf]

Hey Melf,

Soo.... did you dip your teeny tiny tarsals into DNDN? 

No, I didn't, dang it!  I was look for the 3.64-3.68 target to get MADE.
(EDIT...3.64, not 1.64)

I thought it was worth giving it a go on Wednesday, as we had a nice solid reversal candle, and picked some up at 3.97.

I was soo tempted to buy that pretty candle, when the 3.78 target got MADE.

Curses! 

Stop on the trade is currently at 3.72, giving a risk of 6.3%, barring a gap down.  Having a look at the chart it looks to me like DNDN has been forming a bullish WolfeWave.  The lead-in is good (negative), descending wedge with valid points 1-4 and a reversal downside fakeout at point 5.  I put the WW target at around 4.45, currently, giving about a  12% gain from my entry.

Any thoughts?

I'm so proud of you Scotsman, I could weep. 

The way you've structured your trade...the Wolfe Wave... proud I am, laddie!!   

DOUBLE Applause!

I missed that Wolfe Wave completely.  Ver-ry nice.  The low of Wave 1 is 4.16, and the high of Wave 4 is 4.24, so the slope of the target line to Wave 6 is only 0.02296, so the target comes in today at 4.26072.  The high today is 4.24, so it almost MADE.

The only problem with that 3.72 stop is if the 3.64 target still IN PLAY from the Double Top ends up getting MADE.

Lets se how this goes, I'm tempted to put in a limit order to sell a portion at my WW target and see if it hits. 

There you go!  That would defend against that.

If the news is positive, I anticipate DNDN going much higher though.

I hope DNDN goes to the moon, we've all worked so hard on it. 

Good luck, Scotsman!  Great job!

[ScottishTrader]

Well it looks like DNDN ain't gonna make that 3.64-68 downside target anytime soon.  They just released a very important PR:

Dendreon's PROVENGE Granted FDA Priority Review for the Treatment of Asymptomatic, Metastatic, Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/sftu069.html?.v=82

Which should mean no "approvable" letter, for now at least.  The review should be completed by March.

DNDN is currently Bid 4.51, Ask 4.55, PM - up 7.5%

[Melf Elf]

DNDN is currently Bid 4.51, Ask 4.55, PM - up 7.5%

Scotsman,

That would gap it just above the 50DMA, at 4.48. 

It would be nice to see a "Gap and Go," at least to next resistance: 4.67, the low of the Double Top. 

Good luck today.  You so-o deserve this one! 

[la-onda]

in @ 4.5.$ based on the news:
Dendreon to Get 6-Month FDA Review
Tuesday January 16, 9:17 am ET
Dendreon to Get 6-Month FDA Review for Prostate Cancer Treatment Provenge

SEATTLE (AP) -- Biotech drug developer Dendreon Corp. said Tuesday that the Food and Drug Administration will grant a priority review for the company's prostate cancer drug.

A priority review means that the FDA will make a decision on the treatment within six months rather than the standard 10 months. The company submitted its marketing application in November, so now it expects the agency to render a decision by May 15.

ADVERTISEMENT
Dendreon seeks approval for Provenge to treat asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer, also known as hormone-refractory prostate cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.

Shares of Dendreon rose 32 cents, or 7.6 percent, to $4.55 in electronic premarket activity, after closing at $4.23 Friday on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Shares have traded between $3.68 and $5.77 over the past 52 weeks.

Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the United States, with more than 1 million men living with the disease. An estimated 232,000 new cases are diagnosed each year in the U.S., and more than 30,000 men die each year of the disease.

In July, the company published data showing that Provenge enabled men with prostate cancer to live longer.

[Melf Elf]

It would be nice to see a "Gap and Go," at least to next resistance: 4.67, the low of the Double Top. 

The "Gap and Go" was  to 4.65, just below next resistance, then a slide set in, all the way back to 4.33, up only 2.4%. 

The high off Wave 3 was 4.33, so okay, the 4.33 low this morning found support there, but I wouldn't want to see much more give back on what "should be" very good news for DNDN.

Good luck, guys!

[ScottishTrader]

the low this morning was 4.26.  I view that as a positive - bears/shorts tried to push it down to fill the gap, however buyers kicked in and the price bounced back, leaving the gap just open by a couple pennies (yesterday's high was 4.24).  Is currently trading up at 4.36.  As you meantioned earlier, I think that 4.65-67 resistance may be a tough nut to crack, but i think DNDN will at least give it another go this week.  Depending on strength, I may look to take partial profits there (I should have this morning) for around a 15% gain.