DNDN - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[setravis]

This DNDN thread is also running for some time....
created on May 14, 2005, 07:25:41 PM by Saffeysite1
Close to 2 years also.

Those threads in Previous3SOF Picks are just that, Previous stocks played by The 3SOF Portfolio.When these stocks are in the portfolio,only paid members know and can view this info.
These threads will not be merged to any others on the board. This is a history of 3SOF Trading
Guest and none paid members should consider theirself's privileged to view Previous 3SOF Picks Board.

[calven]

hey!!! chartsetups.com is back!!!  but in blog form this time!!  Nice going calven!!

Hey, yep chartsetups.com is back - except this time we are focused on stock stories. I like doing the research and "dirty work" behind creating articles. I guess we would be considered the BULLISH counterpart to  stocklemon.com 

I am going to attach an excel file to the DNDN story I posted. This way you guys can input your own values/estimates into the table.... 

Very interesting stuff - either way with approval I dont see how shares don't see upwards of 50$

BTW - If anyone is interested in writing quality articles/tutorials for us PM me. We offer 50% of adsense revenue share for a lifetime... we are trying to assemble a team of 10 or so writers to deliver fresh content to our site.

calven

[jorgegr]

Take a look at this article I just posted:

http://www.chartsetups.com/blogs/8/DNDN-Provenge-Sends-Dendreon-Shares-Soaring.html

calven

Glad to read you again.   Hope to hear from you more often

[la-onda]

nice IV quotation 

The light bulb went off in someone's head on Wall
Street on Thursday...
Someone on Wall Street took a careful look at DNDN on
Thursday morning, and like the ship captain in the
Poseidon Adventure they looked out and saw the coming
tsunami and said "OH MY GOD, turn on those buy
programs now, TURN THEM ON!"

Some of the shorts will go bankrupt and will be out of
business before this is over.

Stocks are not supposed to do what DNDN did on
Thursday, ever. The jump last Friday and the 92
million share day were predictable if Provenge
received a strong endorsement from the advisory
committee, which it did. Stocks that jump on news are
supposed to see their volume decline about in half
each of the next several trading days as the story
runs out of legs and normal trading resumes. Volume in
DNDN fell to 13 million shares on Wednesday. This is
exactly what DNDN was doing until about one hour into
trading on Thursday, then someone on Wall Street hit
the panic buy button.

DNDN went on to trade 60 million shares on Thursday
and climb almost 20% on no new news, no analyst
upgrades, no events at all that should have caused the
stock to trade more than 10 million shares on a get
out of town day before the three day weekend.

Now, why has it taken a week for what is about to
happen to soak in to someone' mind with access to the
buy button on Wall Street? First, and remember this,
this has never happened before in this way in the
history of Wall Street. You have never had such a
leveraged bet to the downside that was so incredibly
stupid and wrong going into an event that has almost
unlimited upside without the shorts, a chance to own
some of the only 82 million shares in the world of the
company with the biggest breakthrough in cancer since
surgery and radiation. Second, and equally important,
you have never had such corrupt and lopsided and wrong
analysis passed off as research since probably the
late 1920's. Hence, there is not a single research
report someone on Wall Street can pick up and read and
say WOW, Provenge is a $2 billion plus drug and DNDN
is worth 5 to 20 times that $2 billion figure,
discounted back for risk and time. That discounted
value is triple digits in and of itself. The analysts
were still out screaming in the press on Friday and
Monday that the FDA would not approve what their
advisory panel just voted overwhelmingly to approve,
now that's corrupt.

On Thursday, when the buy button was hit on the buy
program, it quickly took out an unprepared line of
defense at $15.40. The shorts attempted to regroup at
$15.88, $16, $16,72, and $17. All of these lines of
defense were quickly over-run and the buying program
marched straight to $18. This is where the shorts were
able to regroup and throw everything they had to stop
the wave. However, the only thing they have left to
fight with is MORE NAKED SHORTING. So, at the end of
the day, net-net, there may actually have been an
increase in the short position because of the three
hour and 40 million share fight Thursday afternoon to
defend or breakthrough $18.

Now, if you have not fully comprehended what I have
just written in setting the stage, then stop here and
go back and re-read it before you move on to read
about the coming Tsunami and the light bulb that went
off in some Wall Street Captains head.

First, this person realized that the ASS (Ashcoff,
Shenouda, & Sendek) team of analysts are lying. The
FDA will 100% not keep Provenge off the market to run
the 9902B study, that's right I said 100%. The only
risk to approval by May is the CMC section (which is
so far so good), or some excuse like working on the
safety plan so that the FDA can approve Provenge
subject to a 90 day delay which would really be about
finishing enrollment in 9902B by mid summer. I give
the odds of approval in May 98% and the odds of
approval in 2007 99.98%. This Wall Street Captain
knows approval of a billion dollar cancer drug in a
now small cap company is only weeks away, maybe only
days away.

Second, the stock is so heavily shorted that almost
every brokerage firm on Wall Street has a negative
imbalance (naked short) position. This means in a
couple of days, if the brokerage firm does not come
into balance by locating more shares to borrow or by
buying back DNDN to close out the imbalance, then the
brokerage firm can not sell more stock short without
first having the shares borrowed in advance or having
a stock certificate in advance. No more sell today and
I will come up with my certificate or borrowed shares
on Tuesday. It will all be C.O.D. for the short side.
Now, it is a mistake to think the naked short position
has to be covered next week, it does not. It is just
that no new shorting in size can occur until DNDN
comes off the Reg SHO list. The shorts have lost CNBC,
their analyst henchmen have lost all credibility and
will not be quoted with nonsense like no approval in
any stories going forward, and it will keep seeping in
on Wall Street that approval is in the bag and
Provenge is a multi-billion dollar drug. My guess is
over 30 million shares were still sold short at the
close of business on Thursday.

Now, again, go back and re-read before moving forward
if you didn't fully comprehend what was just written.
The Provenge story is a triple digit story. Unwinding
the short position in DNDN is a second triple digit
story on its own.

There is a third independent triple digit story which
is exploding now and will keep exploding over the next
few weeks. The call options for April and May are
going to be exercised en masse. Today, there are over
25 million April and May options to buy DNDN stock at
$10 or less. Most of these deep in the money calls
will be exercised and not sold and the market makers
and call sellers must deliver over 20 million shares
to the owners of these calls in the next few weeks.
And because of Reg SHO they can not deliver phantom
shares. This is no OSTK people, this is the biggest
story on Wall Street and all eyes are on it. The SEC
knows it and every compliance department knows it on
the Street.

The fourth independent triple digit wave that may hit
DNDN is all of the other call options that may soon be
deep in the money for April and May followed by all of
the August call options. There are over 8 million more
April and May calls written at $12 1/2 and $15 that
are now deep in the money and will be much deeper when
this stock rolls into the mid 20's next week. There
are over 5 million August calls that are deep in the
money now.

DNDN was the second most active stock in the market on
no news on Thursday. DNDN was the 6th largest gainer
on no new news on Thursday. Some Wall Street Captain
chose to hit the panic buy button on Thursday.
Everyone on Wall Street will want to figure out just
what the guy who hit the panic buy button knows come
early Monday morning.

What he knows is economics 101, supply and demand.
There is tremendous demand over the next several days
and weeks for shares of DNDN and there are not nearly
enough shares to satisfy demand. DNDN is right now in
the early stages of hits parabolic run, not the late
stages.There has never been three separate triple
digit per share circumstance in one stock in the
history of Wall Street before. Well, there is now
baby, there is now. Forget the fundamentals, this is
now all about froth and survival.

If you want to see $100 by May, then do not sell a
single share next week. If you have margin, then move
some of the DNDN shares that are no longer needed to
support the margin account to the cash account
(remember it is not an all or nothing proposition). If
you own calls at $10 or less for April, then exercise
them this week (you don't want to miss the big run and
you don't want to pay ordinary gains anyway). If you
can, buy more shares or start buying some of the
November out of the money calls. The reason so many
calls exist is because they are way to cheap and
enticing. They will have to price the calls to a point
where you think it is 50/50 to buy the calls or buy
the stock, or the swelling call volume will not cease.

Everyone have a great Easter weekend and remember the
heart of the Christian message is forgiveness. I
believe the shorts will see enough punishment for
there crimes and it will be so brutal no one with a
memory will dare do what they did until the memory of
this generation dies out. I am going to spend the
weekend conditioning my heart to find compassion for
the shorts. Lord knows they need it.

P.S. I do not have access to all of the different
hedge fund agreements, but it could be that some of
the hedge fund clients actually have liability if the
hedge fund goes belly up. If you have a hedge fund
find out if they have DNDN shares on the short side
Monday morning and if they do, demand your money back
immediately, while you still can.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=67348&pt=msg&mid=1846069

[ScottishTrader]

I've been thinking about this a lot, and I really think it is time to get heavily overweight on DNDN.  I have been developing an August call position (and I am really only a small fish) in addition to my stock, but I am thinking we'll see some real fireworks next week.  The April calls may still be worth a play even with expiration the week after next.  I think a lot of people thought that DNDN would be pretty stagnant between now and mid may, with the stock trading around $15, and the shorts holding things in check.  But it is clear that the risk to the shorts is simply too high, and there are a lot of buyers and momo players coming in as well.  With Thursday's action, we could easily blow through $20 next week which makes me think that my original estimates of where DNDN will be trading on approval are WAY below where it will actually be.

I agree with the report above and see this as potentially a once in a trading career opportunity.  While I'm not advocating breaking money management rules, if you already have some gains in the stock, (and you are comfortable trading options) taking some of your stock profits and puting it into options positions could stand to make some serious money.  The April options have not been nearly as overpriced as the May options, simply because by May expiration we will know whether Provenge is approved or not.  But as we have seen, DNDN has run 50% from its low last Friday, and really this week it never looked back.  All of a sudden, Thursday's move makes the April 20 calls pretty attractive, and we could easily see the mid 20s by the end of next week.  If you are looking for options exposure on the approval, personally I would let the May calls go (unless you want to hedge your position) and move straight to the August calls, for the simple reason that if the FDA gives Provenge the nod on or around May 15, there will only be 3 trading days before expiration to sell them (or convert them)  The stock will jump, but in the 3 months after, I think we will see further price appreciation as funds enter (probably most major funds with bioech exposure still consider a position in DNDN as too risky) and the ramifications of this new treatment start to sink in (plus the remainder of the die hard short positions that will have to be covered).

Anyway, if anyone else has any ideas about how to play this one, I'd be happy to hear (and discuss) them.  Thursday blew my plans for a strangle or ratio spread out of the water, so I'm gonna have to go back and have abother look at how I want to hedge my position.  But my point is that May 15 may be D-Day for DNDN (though we could hear any time until then too), there is still a huge opportunity between now and then to make some very profitable trades, as well as develop a core long term approach.

[la-onda]

TradingMarkets.com
7 Options You Need to Know for Monday

Most Overpriced Calls: These are the most overpriced calls of all stocks in our database. While the Equities Implosion List finds groups of calls for individual equities that are overpriced, this list finds the most overpriced individual calls. Thus, the options listed here will tend to be more severely overpriced.
Dendreon Corp. May 17.5 Calls (NasdaqGM:DNDN - News). DNDN's PowerRating is 1.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070406/15687.html?.v=1

as I am not invested now in DNDN I find it very difficult to choose the correct entry point (stock/chart)

cheers
O.

[la-onda]

Out of the Gate: Dendreon Peaks Again
Monday April 9, 10:05 am ET
Dendreon Shares Gain Despite Analyst Warning About FDA Approval of Provenge

NEW YORK (AP) -- An analyst sounded a warning note on shares of biotechnology company Dendreon Corp. on Monday, which have more than tripled in value since March 30, but the stock continued to rise.

A Food and Drug Administration panel endorsed Provenge, a prostate cancer vaccine, on March 30, saying there was evidence the drug could be an effective cancer fighter. The agency usually follows panel recommendations in evaluating new drug applications.

Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst Jonathan Aschoff said the FDA would set a "dangerous double standard" by approving Provenge, which did not meet its primary goal in two phase III trials. He said the FDA rejected Pharmacyclics Inc.'s new drug application for Xcytrin for not reaching its goals, but agreed to review the Provenge application.

Aschoff has "Sell" rating and a price target of $1.50 for shares of Seattle-based Dendreon, implying the stock will lose 91.7 percent of its value in the next year.

Five of the nine analysts reporting to Thomson Financial rate Dendreon stock at "Buy" or the equivalent. Two analysts rate it at "Neutral"-equivalent and two at "Sell"-equivalent.

Dendreon were up $2.32, or 12.9 percent, to $20.37 in morning trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The stock hit a new all-time high of $21 shortly after the open.

[bigdogs99999]

It is unsurprising to see Brean Murray with a sell rating and ridiculous price target.  They were in the UBS camp of analysts who would say anything to kill this stock.  To say that the FDA will not approve (via "dangerous double standard" and $1.50 price target), considering where things are at right now, is simply an attempt to help cover a lot of shorts and calls.  I've been on this board for a long time and following DNDN for a long time (and have owned the stock twice before - once for a gain and once for a loss - and now a third time today) and it has been manipulated more than any stock I have followed before.  Seeing this desparation makes me more bullish consistent with the long investor's village quote that la-onda was kind enough to post above.  That post is quite thoughtful ... I had thought that sufficient DNDN shares had traded to cover the shorts ... but that was too superficial an analysis on my part, and the call issue is an obvious one.  So I decided this morning that the entry point is close my eyes and buy.     More thoughtful investing on my part - LOL.   

[ScottishTrader]

DNDN absolutely ROCKED today, closing up over 30% on increasingly huge volume.  Its clear that Aschoff's comments were yet another last ditch attempt to allow the hedge's and shorts a chance to gain control of this stock, but after a sizeable pullback in the afternoon, DNDN recovered most of this into the close, and looks strong heading into tomorrow.  As has been stated before, this looks like the unravelling of one of the more monster short squeezes I have ever seen, and I think there is more to come.

Forbes also put out an article, which had a more positive tone (although quoting Aschoff too):
http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/09/dendreon-analyst-upate-markets-equity-cx_er_0409markets19.html?partner=yahootix

I have to say I am absolutely loving all this.  DNDN is just blowing everything away.  I still think there is further short term upside this week, and things could easily get real silly, but I am being very careful to keep a tight reign on my short term positions and just let my long term position ride.  Go DNDN!!! crush those shorts 

[la-onda]

I hate myself not having bought DNDN a few days ago and especially today 
congrats again to all stockholders
O.

[soxguy]

I'll say it again. So far, if you are long,the best course of action is do nothing. I'm enjoying the ride.

[Holygrale]

Love the action, I was in on the the original spike on March 30th at 13.36 but sold at the close cause she closed below my entry that same day(fearing a sell off the next day)..........oh well, no when to hold em...............

Congrats to those still on the saddle...........

[ScottishTrader]

glad you are too  soxguy!!!  Looks like we have another pre-market gapper - up 7% this morning!!  Today is the day that shorts should technically be forced to cover, so I think we will see furious actiity in DNDN.  And of course, the main thing to remember is "just hang on to those shares!!!!"  This ain't done yet, in fact I think its just getting better annd better every day!!!

I do admit that we may see some kind of blow off top at some point, but that could still be a ways away.  Every selling attack so far has brought it down only to be met by more buying.  I'm looking for this intraday trendline to hold for now.

[soxguy]

There's a school of thought out there that either this afternoon or Wed. afternoon the brokerage houses will started buying shares at any price to square the many short positions. It seems the 13th trading day after the initial spike is significant. we shall see. I told my wife a week ago  that i would sell my initial stake at $25. $30 anyone?

[ScottishTrader]

so soxguy, did you sell at $25???  I'm a bit annoyed, because I had my sell order in this morning for part of my short term position, and it didn't quite get tagged (my Apr 20 calls).... and then all hell broke loose.  It was a pretty hairy few minutes as the share price skidded from the high $24 range all the way down to $20 gap support.  I ended up clearing out most of my near term calls for small profits as I didn't want to take a loss, but I wasn't expecting such a violent downside move.  Stops on the calls would have been useful to protect the gains that I had...

Anyway, I think we ought to be expecting this kind of volatility from DNDN considering the kind of run it has had in the last week or so, and considering it had another 60M+ volume day.  Its gonna get real heavy and I expect the swings will be enough to swing a lot of people out of the stock.  Still, right now, I would like to see gap support at $20 hold and continued trading in the low $20 range.   I'm also concerned by what could be a potential inverse H&S pattern on the intraday chart. 

Unless we see some solid action tomorrow, the bears could now be in control in the short term, despite what has been said about forced buy in short squeezes and all that (it is really very hard to actually say how much of the short shares have been covered, what has been added and exactly how the funds and hedges are playing this).  Today was a bit of a wake-up call.  Be very careful lest you be at the mercy of the wolves....