Buddjas1 Stock of the Week

[wpSoft2008]

Very difficult to make such gains in one day.

Most of the gainers are either M&A related, drug approval, or earning result. None of them can be predictable.

But it is possible to make 50% in one month, 100% in one year.

For example, if you bought EXM two weeks ago, you can make 50% now.

I also bought XMSR last week at exactly $10.00 and will make 50% if it returns to previous high $15.00.

Other chances also

[buddjas1]

I wish I could find these types of returns;

Tell me about it.  We'll get those from time to time, but they are rare.

ESEA looking good, although perhaps there is resistance at 15.7-15.8.  We'll see.  I am thinking nothing serious, though.

Info:

Analyst upgrade in February; no downgrades, after 10K.  Price was about $14 then.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=ESEA

Added capacity in 2007, almost double.
http://www.euroseas.gr/files/Euroseas_4Q07_and_2007_Results.pdf

[wpSoft2008]

Be very careful.

I sold EXM today at $46.50 after more than 50% gain within 2 weeks.

Both DRYS and EXM formed a bearish candlestick pattern today and seemed topped for me.

ESEA chart looked better but after 50% gain from its low, the risk is high compared with reward.

Hope that it can touch 18. But I will not buy it at this price. Many good bargins right now.

[buddjas1]

Be very careful.

ESEA chart looked better but after 50% gain from its low, the risk is high compared with reward.

Hope that it can touch 18. But I will not buy it at this price. Many good bargins right now.

I'm always careful, but ESEA looks fine to me.  Normal buying pressure today.  I'm not sure the 50% rise from the January makes ESEA risky; if that were true stocks would never double.

[wpSoft2008]

Any exit strategy?

Normally I limit my loss to 10%. For short term trade -  4%.

[buddjas1]

My exit strategy is to sell for a 10% gain in 10 days or so. 

ESEA is channeling up and there is no point selling here.

This situation prompts me to express my Rule #3--never sell for a loss.

PAL was an exception because I had no business buying it in the first place.  (I got cocky buying stock in a compay that loses money every quarter.)

ESEA is a greatly undervalued stock, with a great and growing EPS.

Nice mention today:

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/080429/17166.html?.v=1

[wpSoft2008]

Based on the chart, it may take about 10 days to touch the bottom of its channel and another two months to reach a higher high in the uptrend channel.

I may buy it when the stock touched the bottom of the channel and set a stop-loss of 10% if it cannot hold the channel. Of course, sometimes the break-down may be a fake one to shake weak hand out.

I will check into its fundamentals. Fundamental is more important than technical.

But I believe that "when to buy is more important than what to buy".

You can make big profit by buying a marginal stock if you buy/sell at the right time and still lose money on the bluest of blue chip stock by buying at  the wrong time.

Good luck to your picks.

[pinoleropuro]

what do you guys think of ASX?

[buddjas1]

I totally agree with what you said.  However, by starting with $450 or whatever, I cannot afford to sell for losses.  If I were to do so, I would quickly have zero.  I cannot wait to have enought for this project to diversify--my other picks are doing reasonably well.

I thought my timing was right with ESEA, but the market did not care.

[buddjas1]

what do you guys think of ASX?

I see a decline in earnings per share; so not the type of growth stock that I usually feel comfortable in.  Earnings to be released tomorrow.

[pinoleropuro]

raging bull is recomending it.
hmm
that is why I was asking.

[wpSoft2008]

I totally agree with what you said.  However, by starting with $450 or whatever, I cannot afford to sell for losses.  If I were to do so, I would quickly have zero.  I cannot wait to have enought for this project to diversify--my other picks are doing reasonably well.

I thought my timing was right with ESEA, but the market did not care.

It is impossible to not lose money in stock market even you only buy one stock at a time, no matter how hard you research the stocks.

There are two ways of investing:

1. always set stop loss;
2. never set stop loss, may average down instead.

If you use the second method, soon or later, you will be burned by one bad pick even you may win 10 times in row. One bad trade may destroy all your previous gains.

I think that the first is good for small account. This way, you can reserve most of your money for next run in case you made wrong pick.

In my oneweek2percent system (see my trading system),
I pick 5 stocks each week aimed for 2% gain each week to make it 300% annual gain. I do set a 4% stop-loss for my picks.

First month is OK and will see how it goes in month 2.

I am also testing another trading system aimed for 25% gain each month. I will try it for 12 month using $100k. For the first month, I did very well. I concentrate only on one stock at a time. In April, the biggest winners have been SOL and NWA.

Each in 10k and made around $15k each. Lost some on other stocks.
So first month gained more than 25%

Will start second month after tomorrow. If things developed as planned, $100k may turn to $1 million in 12 months. I may change my strategy as money grows. May have 2-4 stocks at one time instead. All the stock selected will be highly liquid ones traded at least 1 million shares per day.

[wpSoft2008]

I made 20k today on my $125,000 account:

bought CHIC (5k), LCC (8k), REGN (3k) and AUY (5k). all bought at open and at bottom and sold before market closed.

[pinoleropuro]

I only have 1/10 of what you got, can you help us out that are just starting out with about 10k?
it would be most greatly appreciated.

[wpSoft2008]

I only have 1/10 of what you got, can you help us out that are just starting out with about 10k?
it would be most greatly appreciated.

Hi, Yes. please look at

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=11073.30

I am doing a 3-month testing of my oneweek2percent trading system, starting from 10K US dollars.

It trades 5 stocks per week. I just finished week 5 testing and 5 weeks total return is 20%.

But if I can make a small modification on the system, the profit could reach 30% or more.

NWA, for example, up 40% after my pick this week but I only took 3% profit based on the algorithm I designed.

BEBE, another one I picked this week, also closed for a 3% profit, but it gapped up today much higher.

There are picks in previous weeks, which have similar momentum run but I only took 3% profit.

I did not count commission charge because the actual account for the testing is $100k. It gained 20% in 5 weeks.

I am using real money for the testing for both 25% gain in one month, which I am not going to show the actual trade here (most day-trades and will take me too much time) and 2% gain in one week.