CALM

[AussieTrader]

How does a dividend exactly work? Is there a minimum time that you need to have your shares or is buying a day before the dividend is payed good enough to profit from it?

Hey Se7en,

You need to be a holder of shares on the 'record date' to qualify for the dividend payment. The record date is set by the company and is the way it is able to record who owns shares as of that date so that payments can be correctly dispersed when the dividend is due to be paid.
I don't own CALM so have no idea of their record date, but it will be in the information relating to their divi payment.

[la-onda]

Se7en, Aussietrader, just fyi:

CALM: $0.807 Cash Dividend; Approaching Record Date
Friday , April 25, 2008 07:00ET

The previously announced $0.807 cash dividend for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) will only be applicable to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2008. Shares are also expected to go ex-dividend on April 28, 2008.

DECL-DATE          X-DATE           REC-DATE        PAY-DATE
-----------     -----------     -----------     -----------
04/10/2008      04/28/2008      04/30/2008      05/15/2008

hope this helps 

[BigSully1]

How does a dividend exactly work? Is there a minimum time that you need to have your shares or is buying a day before the dividend is payed good enough to profit from it?

Hey Se7en,

You need to be a holder of shares on the 'record date' to qualify for the dividend payment. The record date is set by the company and is the way it is able to record who owns shares as of that date so that payments can be correctly dispersed when the dividend is due to be paid.
I don't own CALM so have no idea of their record date, but it will be in the information relating to their divi payment.

Hi Aussie, no offense but actually you are mistaken about the dividend qualification date. The ex-divi date is the only relevant date to qualify. Ex-divi means without dividend, and you would have to be holding the stock at the close of trade, the day before the stock goes ex-dividend (in this case Friday, April 25-  and the day before the stock trades without dividend attached on April 28, ex- dividend date). The ex-divi date is the first day a stock trades without dividend attached.  If you sell on or before that date before that date (April 25), you are also selling the rights to that dividend. Likewise, if you buy before ex-divi date, you are also buying the rights to that dividend. Because of the settlement time (T+3 days), a person holding the stock at close of trade on April 25 would be a shareholder of record on April 30 and would qualify. A person holding the stock at close of trade on April 25 could then sell the stock on ex-divi date (Monday, April 28), or after, and still retain all rights to the dividend.

There are special circumstances (very large "special" dividends) in which the record date is actually before the ex-dividend date. Still, the ex-divi date is the ONLY relevant date. In this case, a person may be the shareholder of record and the company will make the divi payment to his/her account, but if he/she sells before the ex-divi date, the brokerage must debit that sellers acoount and credit it to the buyer as he\she has sold the rights to that dividend by selling before ex-date.

Hope this helps.

[AussieTrader]

No offence taken BigSully 

Thanks for the detailed summary.

[la-onda]

 
cheers
Oliver

CALM Report from May 5th 2008:
Fiscal 2009 per share earnings projection $9.78
Fiscal 2010 per share earnings projection $11.19
4th Q 2008 EPS $1.65, Fiscal 2008 $6.51 EPS
Projected price: $ 67
QUICK POINTS:
• Similar to higher wholesale pricing for all regions and all grades of eggs in 2008 and 2009
• Further reduction in table egg layers in 2008
• Specialty eggs regain premiums in 2008 leading to higher average prices for Cal Maine

VALUATION
Our Projected price is based on a 10 X current fiscal year earnings and 6 X the company's projected 2010 earnings, considers industry seasonality and cyclicality at higher average prices, but also reflects 2 year projected dividends of $7.54 per share and cash + cash generation of $500 million or $21.00 per share into the fiscal 2010 year end. This is also 2X our 2010 projected book value. At the end of this report we base our 2009 forecast on a $1.50 average generic price1, $2.70 average specialty price per dozen and feed cost of $0.43 per dozen. We assume similar co-pack, incidental feed & egg product sales and small increases in specialty egg sales. 2010 projections are based on $1.65, $0.48.and 2.70.
The current stock price equals the projected dividends and cash build into 2010. We also make our model available to download for investors to evaluate their own scenarios.

more details in attachment:

[Ramsburg]

The ex-divi date is the only relevant date to qualify. Ex-divi means without dividend, and you would have to be holding the stock at the close of trade, the day before the stock goes ex-dividend (in this case Friday, April 25-  and the day before the stock trades without dividend attached on April 28, ex- dividend date). The ex-divi date is the first day a stock trades without dividend attached.  If you sell on or before that date before that date (April 25), you are also selling the rights to that dividend. Likewise, if you buy before ex-divi date, you are also buying the rights to that dividend. Because of the settlement time (T+3 days), a person holding the stock at close of trade on April 25 would be a shareholder of record on April 30 and would qualify. A person holding the stock at close of trade on April 25 could then sell the stock on ex-divi date (Monday, April 28), or after, and still retain all rights to the dividend.

Exactly, nice explanation BigSully (applaud)

[Ramsburg]

cheers
Oliver

CALM Report from May 5th 2008:
Fiscal 2009 per share earnings projection $9.78
Fiscal 2010 per share earnings projection $11.19
4th Q 2008 EPS $1.65, Fiscal 2008 $6.51 EPS
Projected price: $ 67
QUICK POINTS:
• Similar to higher wholesale pricing for all regions and all grades of eggs in 2008 and 2009
• Further reduction in table egg layers in 2008
• Specialty eggs regain premiums in 2008 leading to higher average prices for Cal Maine

VALUATION
Our Projected price is based on a 10 X current fiscal year earnings and 6 X the company's projected 2010 earnings, considers industry seasonality and cyclicality at higher average prices, but also reflects 2 year projected dividends of $7.54 per share and cash + cash generation of $500 million or $21.00 per share into the fiscal 2010 year end. This is also 2X our 2010 projected book value. At the end of this report we base our 2009 forecast on a $1.50 average generic price1, $2.70 average specialty price per dozen and feed cost of $0.43 per dozen. We assume similar co-pack, incidental feed & egg product sales and small increases in specialty egg sales. 2010 projections are based on $1.65, $0.48.and 2.70.
The current stock price equals the projected dividends and cash build into 2010. We also make our model available to download for investors to evaluate their own scenarios.

more details in attachment:

Great information La-Onda ! (applaud)
Where did you get from that research note? I searched on my service for that kind of material and couldn't find

Update:

CALM continues to trade according to its pattern, current resistance near $35 (neckline of the inverted H&S), supports at $32.50 and $30.00.
If CALM manage to breakout $35, we'll probably watch another rally (the top of the long term ascending channel is near $50, well-matched with the H&S target projection).

Trading Plan:
1. Take profits at $54.9;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $28.

Regards,

[jorgegr]

Would you consider right to reset now the stop loss to $30 ??

KRgds
jorgegr

[Garoh]

For the short term $32.5 and $32 are  the support ..
On weekly it should not close below $29 .

It looks like it's ready for a nice break out . we saw how strong it was yesterday even though the market was like hell ..On weekly chart it sounds like a new high above $35.33 should be reached in the next 2 days ..

Let's see how it acts 

[Ramsburg]

Would you consider right to reset now the stop loss to $30 ??

KRgds
jorgegr

Hi Jorge!
Yes, I'm upgrading the stop level, not to $30 but a few cents below.

For the short term $32.5 and $32 are  the support ..
On weekly it should not close below $29 .

It looks like it's ready for a nice break out . we saw how strong it was yesterday even though the market was like hell ..On weekly chart it sounds like a new high above $35.33 should be reached in the next 2 days ..

Let's see how it acts 

Hi Garoh,
I agree with your short term support levels. On the weekly I would probably call it a bit higher than $29. CALM looks like ready for breakout, just needs a trigger now...

Update:

Nothing new since last update. We are just updating the stop level to work in accordance with the long-term ascending support. We are also changing the suggested sell price to match the top of the trading channel (we may revise it later).

Trading Plan:
1. Take profits at $50.00;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $29.75.

[jorgegr]

OK Rams I'll settle for a quarter discount 

The idea is to protect profits in the way up, and sticking to a policy of limited loss when going down.
Cases like those shown on some of the stocks in the main portfolio have to be avoided  not
only in members interests but also for your own professional image, which I don't doubt.

Have a nice long weekend (monday US market closed)

[la-onda]

JAGfn Rumors
Friday , May 23, 2008 08:53ET

May 23, 2008 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (CALM) Rumor that CAL MAINE FOODS INC (CALM) will boost guidance for upcoming quarter and year.

[Ramsburg]

Update:

Price action was not positive last Friday; CALM has broken the short term ascending support, and may compromise the current Inverted H&S pattern. Near $30.50 we have the long term ascending support, and I expect some positive reactions if CALM goes there to test it.

JAGfn Rumors
Friday , May 23, 2008 08:53ET

May 23, 2008 (JAGfn.com via COMTEX) -- (CALM) Rumor that CAL MAINE FOODS INC (CALM) will boost guidance for upcoming quarter and year.

La-onda, this could be a nice catalyst! I'm not very familiar with JAGfn.com, are they reliable?

Apart from the research note posted by la-onda a few days ago, I still couldn't find any research department covering CALM on a regular basis, so I contacted a few analysts that are covering similar companies in several research departments telling them about CALM's fundamental case and long term technical outlook Maybe it will get noticed.

The trading plan remains the same:

Trading Plan:
1. Take profits at $50.00;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $29.75

Best regards,

[la-onda]

I don't know if Jagfn is reliable Rams,  sorry...

CALM: Short Interest UP 10.0% to 14.5M in Mid May 2008
tuesday , May 27, 2008 16:16ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) INCREASED 10.0% to 14,535,638 shares as reported in mid-May, 2008.
Based on CALM's 20-day average daily share volume of 838,670, it would require approximately 18 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

please read the CALM letter to SEC:
http://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-464.pdf

[Ramsburg]

I don't know if Jagfn is reliable Rams,  sorry...

CALM: Short Interest UP 10.0% to 14.5M in Mid May 2008
tuesday , May 27, 2008 16:16ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CALM) INCREASED 10.0% to 14,535,638 shares as reported in mid-May, 2008.
Based on CALM's 20-day average daily share volume of 838,670, it would require approximately 18 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

please read the CALM letter to SEC:
http://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-464.pdf

Wow... that letter to SEC shows that the management clearly intents to squeeze those shorts And what a short covering that would be if it happens... I don't remember to see a stock with so much short interest.

Update:

Technically CALM just reacted positively on its ascending support (once again), which is good and shows that CALM continues to ride it's main trend.

There are lots of potential catalysts in play: possible upgraded guidance for upcoming quarters; probably new coverage's and upgrades from Analysts; most probably a giant short squeeze increasing the buying pressure; and its general fundamental case getting noticed by institutional buyers.

I'm confident on this pick, and we'll keep the same trading plan (actually we could increase the stop level a bit as the ascending support is a bit higher, but for now we'll just let it on the same spot).

Trading Plan:
1. Take profits at $50.00;
2. Take a small loss if the stock is set to close below $29.75

Best regards,