VWPT

[ScottishTrader]

No posts on Viewpoint for over a month, but I've had it on my radar, and just noticed that it is approaching the break of a symmetric triangle, and will break one way or another within the next few days

Now I really have no idea which side it will break to, all indicators are neutral, as far as I can tell -
RSI = 50, MACD and 9ema converged, just above 0 MACD.
But it's gotta go one way or another, and my guess is to the upside - the stock has been much more positive since the new CEO came in andd it moved from all time lows last month.

I'll leave it with the chart, but any and all comments appreciated - anyone still holding 

the Scotsman

[Melf Elf]

Okay, Scotsman, since you were so nice to me yesterday, giving me bandaids for my ouchies on HGSI, I took a look at VWPT.

Here's my two cents worth, which is all it's worth.   


OVERVIEW:

1. Completed an 8-month top in May, 2005.

2. Built a small base from May-July, 2005, with highs at 1.84. 

NOTE: A pattern of only 2+ months isn't likely to do much, going up against an 8-month top.

3. False breakout above 1.84 on July 19, 2005.  The 2+ month pattern was so weak that the high of the false breakout was only 1.96, nowhere near the 2.10-2.14 resistance.

4. From that 1.96 high, it tanked almost 50% to 1.00 on August 19, 2005.

Next post, we'll look at the action since then.

[Melf Elf]

just noticed that it is approaching the break of a symmetric triangle, and will break one way or another within the next few days

When a stock is approaching the apex of a Symmetrical Triangle (that's where the two lines meet), I don't view a break in either direction as particularly meaningful unless there's volume.  You also have to look at what else is going on, of course.

In other words, as the stock "coils" in the the narrow space where the trendlines meet (apex), "it's gotta do something," so I view it more as the stock "fell over" the apex in one direction or the other, but absent volume and taking out a recent price high or price low, etc., it's pretty meaningless.

That's pretty much what VWPT did on September 30.  As it coiled into the apex, it finally broke out above the down trendline off the July 19 "false breakout" high, but there wasn't much volume.  Only 270,000 shares.

I would view that as pretty meaningless, except in this case, that trendline has 5 hits.  6 hits, if you count September 28, the high of which was within a penny of the trendline.

Something else that doesn't seem meaningless is the fact that the market has taken a pretty good whacking the last couple of days, but VWPT has found support at the top of that down trendline off the July 19 high, and the selloff has been on light volume.  Yesterday was only 73,000 shares.

Hmm-mmm....

The September 27 and October 3 highs are 1.45, so VWPT could get moving higher on a print of 1.46.  Especially if volume kicks in.

The up trendline only has two data points, so it hasn't been validated, but it's probably a good idea to use it as support, or use the September 29 low, prior to the "break out" (using that term loosely, since there wasn't much volume).

The up trendline comes in today, October 6, at 1.326.
The September 29 low was 1.31.
The 50DMA is 1.329.

VWPT closed yesterday at 1.38, so it's a reaonble risk if you use a close below 1.31 as stop.  Risk: a loss of about 6%.

On a print of 1.46, it's got a decent chance for a run at 1.84 (the highs before the false breakout) and possibly the 2.10-2.14 resistance.

If 1.84 makes, Gain: 33.3%
If 2.10 makes, Gain: 52.2%

[ScottishTrader]

Thanks very much for your analysis Melf Elf

I just had a quick look at this one last night, so that really puts it in the big picture, which is actually quite bearish.  It also made me realise I have to be a bit more careful with my analysis as your descending trendline was different to mine, and much more valid, but I'm still learning 

The one thing I'm trying to figure out is when to use a linear chart and when to use a log chart  
From what I've gathered from other people here, its pretty much a "whatever works best" approach, but David almost always uses linear charts, and I was wondering if there may be times when one is more valid than another.  I know the log chart gives a better view of relative prices, especially when that price is trading at the lower end, but any advice on this would definitely be useful.

As for VWPT, I will follow your advice, I'm not too keen on it, but the recent fundamental story does indicate a turnaround in the company may be in process.  We'll see.

Anyway, thanks again, and good trading for today

[Melf Elf]

The one thing I'm trying to figure out is when to use a linear chart and when to use a log chart  
From what I've gathered from other people here, its pretty much a "whatever works best" approach, [

Yeah, Scotsman, I think its a "whatever works best" approach.  I like to see a trendline get validated with a third data point, otherwise we're just connecting any two data points and putting our own interpretation on it, infering that the trendline is meaningful.  We don't really know that it's meaningful until the market tells us that, by successfully testing it.

If there's a validated trendline on the linear chart, but not the log chart, I'll lean toward the linear chart.  Nothing is infallible, though, of course.  The more hits to a trendline, the more meaningful it "tends" to be.  Again, no guarantees.

but David almost always uses linear charts, and I was wondering if there may be times when one is more valid than another.

David has used linear charts in the past, I know.  I remember that we had a discussion about which one to use with respect to DNDN, and I think he agreed with "use what works."  I'm almost sure that Frederick agrees with that, but you'd have to ask them.  I find that it doesn't pay to be real rigid about anything. 

The important thing is not to deceive ourselves, and not to make excuses to suit our own purposes.  If a validated trendline on a log chart gets violated, let's be careful about saying, "Oh, well then I'll use the linear chart, and hang onto this loser of stock!"   

If you switch back and forth, try to be as objective as possible, and try to find a reason supported by the chart to choose one over the other.  

As for VWPT, I will follow your advice, I'm not too keen on it, but the recent fundamental story does indicate a turnaround in the company may be in process.  We'll see.

So far this morning, it's come back below that trendline, which isn't so hot.  It printed a low of 1.32, the support area.  Interesting, huh?  If it hammers off that, and closes back above the trendline, it might do alright.   Printing 1.46 would look alot better.

Hope that I didn't talk you out of a play that you wanted to make.  There's always risk, and the risk in this one isn't bad.  VWPT currentily is BID 1.33...ASK 1.35, so the risk is lowered to about 3.7% on a stop out below 1.31 if you pay the 1.35.  Not bad.

Best of luck with whatever you decide, Scotsman!

[Melf Elf]

I just had a quick look at this one last night, so that really puts it in the big picture, which is actually quite bearish. 

I'm not too keen on it, but the recent fundamental story does indicate a turnaround in the company may be in process.  We'll see.

Scotsman,

In the "Whatever happened to....?" Department...

The 1.45 high of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout day turned out the be the high so far.  1.45 was next resistance, and it couldn't take that out.

Instead, VWPT went back below the bottom of the Symmetrical triangle, then took out 1.31-1.32 support.   VWPT closed at 1.28.

Looks like you made a good decision, passing on this one.  It's tough to play stocks that are in a downtrend from the long side.  I need to keep reminding myself of that, because I've tried it a few times lately, and I've gotten stopped out for a loss.

[ScottishTrader]

Yep, good call once again Melf Elf, thanks for the words of wisdom.

Thankfully VWPT has been well off my recent trading radar, and I'm glad I didn't go in either - always good to see in hindsight, horrible to be stuck in the middle of 

I'd applaud you again, but I've already done so once this hour, so I may have to just applaud your next excellent post.

Till tomorrow 

[wrangler]

VWPT : had a few threads started so I took top one to post. Put order in to buy today @1.19 ,still waiting to see if it get's filled. Had some good recent news and chart shows it's beginning to run with good volume coming in.
Press Release Source: Viewpoint Corporation

Viewpoint Launches KeySearch Search Engine Marketing and Optimization Service
Monday March 13, 9:00 am ET 
First Offerings from Web Consulting Practice Reflect Changing Paradigm in Online Advertising Market

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 13, 2006--Viewpoint Corporation (NASDAQ: VWPT - News), a leading internet marketing technology company, today announced the introduction of KeySearch, Viewpoint's search engine marketing and optimization service offering. KeySearch is designed to help clients optimize their position in search engines to drive brand awareness and attract site visitors. KeySearch will offer a new and unique way of integrating search engine marketing with other elements of Viewpoint's multi-channel internet marketing and advertising offerings. KeySearch will also offer business intelligence reports and an analysis of search marketing campaign effectiveness, leveraging Viewpoint's technology. These reports will enable customers to make data-driven business decisions, ultimately increasing ROI.

[wrangler]

Order just got filled @1.19. Notice the positive convergence in the MACD and centerline crossover in chart posted above

[wrangler]

Posted new chart to show my TA of the chart. I like to find a stock that the MACD has been in a positive convergence for sometime and really like it if the price of a stock is going down but MACD is in a positive convergence and wait for centerline to be hit and when it hit's the centerline or crossover that is usually when the run begins.
Goodluck trading to all

[wrangler]

VWPT : posting end of day chart and TA is explained on chart. With my new work schedule I'm not able to keep up with market and post like I would like to. If anybody decide's to enter this stock I'll try to update as week goes by. Will keep this thread active till I decide to sell
Goodluck trading to all

[wrangler]

VWPT : piereced it's 200 day MA but has fallen back. Let's see if it can climb back up and show the direction it might take for tomorrow.
Goodluck trading to all

[wrangler]

VWPT : is now showing a Morning Star one of the best Bullish Reversal Chart Patterns. Looking forward to next week
Goodluck trading to all

[Adam]

Just blew through resistance

[wrangler]

If you're in this watch out for earnings which is May 4th. Usually it's good to take profit before earnings in case it's not a good report. If it's a good report you can alway's hope back on to ride it up.
• VIEWPOINT CORP Earnings Call scheduled for Thu, May 4
CCBN (Fri, Apr 21)