ALVR - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Computer Services

[bjc]

ALVR having some sort of major breakdown.

I can't decide if it's a buying opportunity or a sign that some shares need to be unloaded.

Too bad I didn't get rid of any shares over 14 or 15, but what are you going to do? 


Travis - I know(well, think) you'll be holding on, I think i might have to join you.  I just hate watching a nearly 50% gain slide to less than 20%. 


I think this might be MMs manipulating to get some cheap shares, maybe for Cisco so they can buy it for a reasonable price in upper teens?  There were a couple legitimate articles written about the prospects of Cisco buying a WiMAX company.       ALVR is best of breed in the section of WiMAX they operate.

[kslifka]

ALVR having some sort of major breakdown.

I can't decide if it's a buying opportunity or a sign that some shares need to be unloaded.

Too bad I didn't get rid of any shares over 14 or 15, but what are you going to do? 


Travis - I know(well, think) you'll be holding on, I think i might have to join you.  I just hate watching a nearly 50% gain slide to less than 20%. 


I think this might be MMs manipulating to get some cheap shares, maybe for Cisco so they can buy it for a reasonable price in upper teens?  There were a couple legitimate articles written about the prospects of Cisco buying a WiMAX company.       ALVR is best of breed in the section of WiMAX they operate.

Hey BJC..I've been watching ALVR...along with CRNT.

I wouldn't buy yet....but keep a watch.  It's below the 50dma.  Watch to see if it stabalizes for a couple of weeks and starts to move up.  Fundamentally....ALVR looks good.

[bjc]

ksl

i'm in from 10.65.  Was considering selling, not thinking about buying any more.  Got greedy.

WiMAX has yet to experience any hype..most people still don't even know what it is.  So when that hype hits and the average Joe knows what WiMAX is, ALVR should fetch at least $15 a share. 

[setravis]

Still a good  hold....... WiMax product line... All signs up.
Bouncing off a 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Pullback to the 38.2% fib and bouncing once again !



52wk Range: 6.03 - 15.21
Volume: 353,424
Avg Vol (3m): 1,085,440

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-0.81%below 13-day MA
2.51%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 9 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Oct 31

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $799.38 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 14.3 
Next Earnings: 10/31/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Positive

[bjc]

ALVR finally crossed back above the 20 ema.

It seems like that was a BIG shakeout, somebody wanted this pup cheaper again so they could get some cheap shares.  Maybe all the yahooligans have me paranoid, but this seriously does seem like a bogus manipulation to me.  But now the weak hands have been shaken out, and the stock is much stronger for it.

Anyway it looks like ALVR is back on track.

[bjc]

ALVR pretty much on fire!

+ 0.64 (4.86%) to 13.80 on strong volume.  I think we'll be to 1.2 or 1.3 million by the end of the day.

[kslifka]

I'm thinking of buying ALVR tomorrow.  I really like the look of the chart.

However, I'm a little concerned about CSCO's entering WiMax after the buyout of Navani.  Maybe that is why the stock initially dropped...but I don't know.  The CSCO buyout was only announced earlier this week.

BJC any thoughts on this??

Cisco Investing In WiMax To Bring Broadband To Developing Areas

Company exec says the addition of mobile WiMax to its existing Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi mesh portfolio will help shape the future of high-speed broadband.

By Elena Malykhina
InformationWeek
October 24, 2007 03:36 PM

With Sprint (NYSE: S) forking out up to $5 billion for WiMax efforts, Cisco (NSDQ: CSCO) is the next big company investing in the technology in hopes of bringing high-speed broadband to developing areas, said a Cisco executive on Wednesday during a session at the Interop show in New York City.

"The issue often is still coverage. There are large parts of the U.S. where people can't get the bandwidth that they need. WiMax represents a huge opportunity to drive connectivity into areas where it's not available," said Lynn Lucas, director of Cisco's mobility solutions marketing, during the session.

Cisco earlier this week announced plans to acquire Navini Networks, a Texas-based provider of mobile WiMax 802.16e-2005 products, for $330 million. Navini specializes in integrating "smart beamforming" technologies with multi-input multi-output (MIMO) antennas -- a combination that can improve performance and range for WiMax-based services. Once the acquisition closes, Cisco will be able to enhance its IP Next Generation Network by allowing service providers to provide any service to any device over any network, according to the company.

Cisco has two initiatives, called "Country Transformation" and "Digital Inclusion," to bring high-speed wireless broadband to consumers and businesses in emerging countries. The networking provider's wireless portfolio of Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi mesh, and now mobile WiMax, will help drive those initiatives.

WiMax isn't the only technology that will shape the future of wireless broadband, but it will be complementary to other technologies. AT&T (NYSE: T) and other carriers, for example, are spending billions of dollars to upgrade their infrastructure to next-generation technologies.

"When we merged Cingular and AT&T Wireless we had to focus on integrating existing networks. Now we're moving at lightning speed to build out our [third-generation] network. We're spending quite a bit of money acquiring additional spectrum and moving users off of legacy systems," said David Cohen, area VP of mobility applications at AT&T.

Wi-Fi is another key technology in the evolution of wireless broadband. Many cities are deploying municipal Wi-Fi networks in hopes of providing services to public safety, government workers, and residents. While coverage is not everywhere, combined with WiMax and other technologies, Wi-Fi will play a major role.

"WiMax in addition to Wi-Fi and proprietary platforms in the licensed and unlicensed spectrum will be successful. It's got to be a collection of technologies," said Jim Welch, VP of wireless broadband, government, and public safety atMotorola (NYSE: MOT). He added, "it's going to take some experiments, but we're already seeing startups driving WiMax deployments. You'll see public safety and the government deploying their own networks and eventually they will come together."

[bjc]

I believe, based on the Cisco Navini deal, ALVR would go for about a 25-30% premium to current prices if it were to be bought, based on revenues.

And ALVR is the best of breed.   The sentiment seems to be that the entry of Cisco into the market is a verification of the legitimacy of the technology.  Also, Cisco's willingness to buy Navini suggests there is plenty of money to be made solely selling WiMax equipment in emerging markets.  There are some pretty good posters on the Yahoo! board that I've grown a small amount of trust in, and this seems to be the take around the board. 

I think ALVR could make a run to $20 if it can pass the highs at at $15ish area.

[kslifka]

I believe, based on the Cisco Navini deal, ALVR would go for about a 25-30% premium to current prices if it were to be bought, based on revenues.

And ALVR is the best of breed.   The sentiment seems to be that the entry of Cisco into the market is a verification of the legitimacy of the technology.  Also, Cisco's willingness to buy Navini suggests there is plenty of money to be made solely selling WiMax equipment in emerging markets.  There are some pretty good posters on the Yahoo! board that I've grown a small amount of trust in, and this seems to be the take around the board. 

I think ALVR could make a run to $20 if it can pass the highs at at $15ish area.

bjc...thanks for your response.

If the the market looks good tomorrow morning and ALVR opens about half-way up the red candle from today...I think I will enter.  This chart looks alot like CRNT's chart (and many other's I've watched) did after it had broken the 50dma then propelled to $20 in a couple of weeks.  ALVR has a higher float so I think any move higher would be slower...but none-the-less higher.

[bjc]

kslifka-

ALVR looks ripe for the picking.  Sitting right on the 50 ma.  Tons of WiMax hype constantly it seems.  You taken a look today?

[setravis]

Go Alvarion.......
Awesome 1 Year chart !

Business Overview...
BRIEF: For the six months ended 30 June 2007, Alvarion Ltd.'s revenues rose 25% to $109.6M. Net loss from cont. ops. decreased 17% to $1.5M. Revenues reflect increased contribution from BreezeMAX sales and higher WiMAX sales due to increased deployments & trails. Lower loss reflects decreased amortization of intangible assets and increased net financial income. Alvarion Ltd. (Alvarion) is a provider of wireless broadband systems. http://www.alvarion.com


Alvarion Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2007)
Scheduled to start Wed, Oct 31, 2007, 9:00 am Eastern
Check back here , Link....... http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/5/85785.html


52wk Range: 6.03 - 15.21
Volume: 387,293
Avg Vol (3m): 1,071,340

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-0.53%below 13-day MA
2.38%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 9 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Oct 31

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $799.38 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 14.31 
Next Earnings: 10/31/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Positive

Price Channel (Continuation) Pattern...
A price channel is a continuation pattern that slopes up or down and is bound by an upper and lower trend line. The upper trend line marks resistance and the lower trend line marks support. Price channels with negative slopes (down) are considered bearish and those with positive slopes (up) bullish. For explanatory purposes, a "bullish price channel" will refer to a channel with positive slope and a "bearish price channel" to a channel with negative slope.

In a bullish price channel, some traders look to buy when prices reach main trend line support. Conversely, some traders look to sell (or short) when prices reach main trend line resistance in a bearish price channel. As with most price patterns, other aspects of technical analysis should be used to confirm signals.

Because technical analysis is just as much art as it is science, there is room for flexibility. Even though exact trend line touches are ideal, it is up to each individual to judge the relevance and placement of both the main trend line and the channel line. By that same token, a channel line that is exactly parallel to the main trend line is ideal.

[kslifka]

ALVR really got hit after earnings...which were not bad.   I guess the market wanted something better.

I still think this is a good stock to own in a high growth area.  Anyone have ideas about the earnings and prospects.  Looking to pick up some shares but I want the bleeding to stop first.

Any thoughts??

[bjc]

ksl-

it turns out my move from ALVR to SOLF wasn't so bad after all...they've both sucked!   

I would also be interested in getting back in ALVR.  This reaction to earnings has been overdone.  Maybe a good buy point in the 10s?  I can't see ALVR trading in the single digits long, so I think you're getting into safe buying territory here. 

The chart kinda seems to say something ugly is going on though...

[kslifka]

I've been watching ALVR...

I just don't understand why it took such a beating after earnings which were in line and the company is profitable

Wimax is the future...U.S. is behind...just like alternative energy.

Anyway...keep it on watch Thursday.  I typically don't like the way the red candles are line-up...but if...by chance...we get a long white candle Thursday...we would have a double bottom.

[bjc]

ALVR doesn't look half bad here...