NTRZ.OB

[Se7en]

This is what I call good earnings or is that an understatement?!   

Maybe David likes this one for a deeper analysis?!




NutraCea Announces Record Third Quarter Results
Tuesday November 14, 5:25 pm ET
- Company Reports Record Gross Revenue and Record Net Income -

EL DORADO HILLS, Calif., Nov. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- NutraCea (OTC Bulletin Board: NTRZ - News), a world leader in stabilized rice bran research and technology, announced today record financial results and a record profit for its third quarter and nine months ending September 30, 2006, marking the third consecutive quarter of record results.

ADVERTISEMENT
Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2006 were $4,946,174, compared to total revenues of $301,726 for the third quarter of 2005, an increase of over 1,639%. The improved revenues and financial performance on a quarterly comparative basis have primarily resulted from the merger with RiceX and the continued strength of the direct-to-consumer marketing of its nutraceutical products through the quarter ended September 30, 2006. Infomercial sales remained strong and the Company continued to experience growth from its expanded product lines and increased demand of its value-added ingredients for the functional food industry and animal markets.

Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 were $12,893,900, compared to total revenues of $1,060,271 for the nine months ended September 30, 2005, an increase of over 1,216%. The significant improvement in revenues and financial performance for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 is the result of the culmination of the merger with RiceX, direct marketing of its expanding proprietary, patented product line and sales of its core products into the functional food industry and animal markets and continued growth in sales of nutraceutical products through direct-to-consumer marketing.

NutraCea reported net income of $641,106 or $0.01 per share for the third quarter of 2006 based on weighted average shares outstanding of 77,377,010, compared to a net loss of $(1,035,544), or $(0.03) per share in 2005 based on 38,033,352 weighted average shares outstanding. NutraCea had a net income of $806,971 or $0.01 per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 based on weighted average shares outstanding of 71,685,402, compared to a net loss of $(3,711,245), or $(0.10) per share in 2005 based on 36,756,797 weighted average shares outstanding.

Mr. Brad Edson, President and CEO of NutraCea commented, "We are delighted to report our third consecutive record quarter notwithstanding substantial expenditures in the most recent quarter that were necessary to meet strategic plans to realize continuing growth for the year 2007 and beyond. These expenditures included the addition of highly qualified personnel from the domestic and international food category, as well as the implementation of financial oversight processes to achieve and maintain 404 Compliance and other essential general and administrative expenses. In this quarter we accomplished many of our current business goals, including expanding our production capacity and entered into two new licensing agreements for the use of our formulations in specific channels of distribution. We believe there will be additional strategic agreements and licensing opportunities of equal and potentially greater size in the future. In the ensuing quarters, based on initiatives already underway, we anticipate sustainable positive financial results."

Mr. Edson added, "Several of our planned expansions are either completed or in the final phases of completion. By this time next year the Company is planning to have five plants operational, bringing our total capacity to produce stabilized rice bran to over 70,000 tons per year, compared to a production capacity of less than 10,000 tons per year at the beginning of 2006. We feel confident that there is a very substantial global demand for stabilized rice bran and we intend to explore all potential initiatives to further satisfy that demand."

"Having already obtained significant market demand in the United States," Mr. Edson concluded. "We're focusing on opportunities to extend our reach into other parts of the world and duplicate our U.S. success elsewhere. All of our existing or planned production facilities have been completely financed out of funds already raised and from our cash flow. At the end of the third quarter, the Company remains debt free with cash on hand and marketable securities amounting to $13.4 million. In addition, several million dollars have been added to our balance sheet since the end of the 3rd quarter from the exercise of warrants, which will be reflected in our fourth quarter numbers. We are looking forward to aggressively pursuing and executing on many diverse opportunities that exist worldwide. "


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061114/sftu172.html?.v=2

[422fwhp]

Update:

We'll most likely buy NTRZ again really soon

re-entry @ $2.15

[David Randolph]

1. Introduction

I usually don't look at OTCBB traded stocks (got fed up with it when I was working at www.otcbbcoverage.com) because most of them suffer from a big, big problem: they dilute shareholder value. Since they are very small companies or companies in trouble, most of the times they need the market and investor's money to keep on going.

Not a problem with this, for as long as it isn't my money involved. Let me explain: I think it is good economic policy to let these companies trade and sell shares to the public, because this way they can finance operations and create jobs. But, as an investment, most of the times they suck, because of the dilution effect we were talking about.

Doesn't mean this is the case with NTRZ. Se7en, an Honours Member of 3 Stocks on Fire, requested my view on this stock. So let's study it !

2. Profile

NutraCea (NTRZ), a health science company, engages in the development and distribution of stabilized rice bran and rice bran-based products for the consumer food and animal feed sectors. Its products include food supplements and medical foods for humans and animals, as well as cosmetics and beauty aids based on stabilized rice bran, rice bran derivatives, and rice bran oils. The company's customers include consumer nutrition and healthcare companies, domestic and international food companies, and companion animal feed manufacturers. NutraCea was founded in 2000. The company was formerly known as NutraStar Incorporated and changed its name to NutraCea in 2003. NutraCea is based in El Dorado Hills, California.

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



Well, this definitely looks like a penny stock chart.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



NTRZ was up 330% in about 1 month in July 05. Then it fell 62% to $0.69. Now the stock is up 280% from the August lows.

So we're talking volatile.

3.3. Short Term Chart



The short term trend is still bullish, even though today's session was scary to most holders of the stock. Near the lows of the session it found support on TL 3, the steepest trendline on the chart.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



Today's session doesn't scare me nearly as much as the graph above. Now, we're talking about monstrous dilution here  . Current market cap is 87,120,310*$2.28 = $198.6 M.

4.2. Liquidity



The balance sheet is much better now, with $18 M in working capital.

4.3. Revenues



Outstanding revenue growth in 2006, to, I estimate, about $18 M in sales for the full year. But, and this is a big but, the Price to Sales Ratio is $198.6 M / $18 M = 11  . The price to sales ratio of the Food - Major Diversified industry is 1.64, so NTRZ seems extremely overvalued, even considering its fast growth.

4.4. Profits



NTRZ will probably profit between $1.5 M and $2 M in fiscal 2006. Even if it makes $2M, and this is way optimistic because the company had net income of just $0.807 M for the 9 months until September, the PER would be $198.6 M / $2 M = 99.

5. General Overview

As I said, monstrous dilution made NTRZ have stratospheric valuations. It wouldn't surprise me to see the share price fall 60 or 70% from current levels, even considering the recent outstanding growth.

I may be wrong, but the odds don't favour the bulls on NTRZ. Good luck though 

[nicknite20]

David,
i think u've hit the nail on the head..the dilution scares me too..and its going to take some time till the valuations are justified, inspite of the revenue growth..

I bailed around 2.4, but having riden this up from 1.22, im quite happy.

Will definitely keep on my radar though..and look to get back in at some point in the future.

[la-onda]

time for reentry now ?

[Se7en]

NutraCea Receives Purchase Order From Pronaca for Stabilized Rice Bran and Solubles
Tuesday November 28, 8:00 am ET 
Largest Food Company in Ecuador Advances Research and Development of Stabilized Rice Bran Products for Commercial Development


EL DORADO HILLS, Calif., Nov. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- NutraCea (OTC Bulletin Board: NTRZ - News), a world leader in stabilized rice bran research and technology announced today that Pronaca, the largest food producer in Ecuador, has placed its second and more significant order for product, pursuant to its agreement signed with NutraCea in May of this year.


The order, which was shipped this week, is to meet the extensive and continuing product development work and commercial test marketing that Pronaca has been undertaking over the last several months, as a pre-curser to an anticipated full commercial roll out in mid 2007. As detailed in our Sales and Distribution agreement, signed earlier in 2006, Pronaca is pursuing an initial test product development, and market study for the commercialization of various products utilizing NutraCea's stabilized rice bran, both as a stand alone ingredient in animal and food products as well as utilization of Solubles, the higher level fraction as part of finished drinks and ingredient additives for finished products.

"In accordance with the Supply and Marketing Agreement NutraCea signed with Pronaca this shipment complies with the milestone markers for continuation of our agreement and confirms the commitments of the parties to move towards more substantial economic milestones and ultimately mass product roll-out utilizing Pronaca's food distribution system in Ecuador, which is the largest in the country, as well as elsewhere in South America. We feel this shipment will broaden the demand for our products not only in Ecuador, but throughout South America," said Margie Adelman, Senior Vice President of NutraCea.

"We are very eager to receive this shipment of product, which will enable us to move forward with our original plan to explore a variety of uses for NutraCea's products as a value added food ingredient, enhancing Pronaca's livestock and aquaculture projects, and introduction of the products into retail as well as government sponsored feeding programs," said Patricio Calderon, Manager of Rice Business for Pronaca.

"We are very pleased to be partners with Pronaca, which has been in business for more than 40 years, has over 7000 employees and is the largest commercial food producer in Ecuador, with distribution of its products in Brazil, Colombia and Peru. This purchase order demonstrates a firm commitment from Pronaca to advance our mutual interests and we offer our continued support for a successful future product launch in Ecuador and throughout Latin America in 2007," said Brad Edson, President and CEO of NutraCea.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061128/sftu070.html?.v=76

[setravis]

May be on it's way up......   

52wk Range: 0.60 - 2.69
Volume: 1,232,106
Avg Vol (3m): 1,185,210

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
2.87%above 13-day MA
17.46%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $88.59 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

[setravis]

I think the MACD is going to bounce off the center line. JMHO of course.

52wk Range: 0.60 - 2.74
Volume: 967,963
Avg Vol (3m): 1,250,950

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-3.10%below 13-day MA
3.60%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $88.59 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

[setravis]

"NTRZ.OB" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.      
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.     

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$     

[Michael]

I think the MACD is going to bounce off the center line. JMHO of course.

Hi Setravis,

We are in the same boat. We don't know for sure 

I promised myself to buy this stock back ASAP when we sold it at 2.5. I do strongly believe that the value of Nutracea will increase very significantly in the future. It is not often you see a stock with so strong fundamentals.

I have had a buy order at 2 since I sold at 2.5 and even though there have been a few close calls It was never filled. With the latest hype from thestreet.com I am wondering if I will ever get filled so I have raised my bid to 2.2.

I am Personally not a big fan of thestreet.com but even a blind chicken can find a gold corn 

[Se7en]

Hi Michael, I also like NTRZ a lot, I asked David for an analysis but he wasn't too positive on it! What do you think? Tia!

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1352.msg77180#msg77180

[Michael]

Hi Michael, I also like NTRZ a lot, I asked David for an analysis but he wasn't too positive on it! What do you think? Tia!

Nutracea is one of the few cases where David and I do not agree about the fundamentals.

David's main concern is dilution combined with a very high PE ratio.

Dilution is obviously always a concern especially with OTCBB stocks. In case of NTRZ the dilution were a result of the acquisition of RICX and building of the initial production facilities.

The management has clearly stated that free cash flow, partners and debt will finance future growth. As they have more than 13 million in cash and no long-term debt there is quite a lot of space to use cash and debt for expansion.

So yes we have seen significant dilution but it seems to me that the dilution were fully justified as the money were spend in building the platform for future growth.

David is also right about the high PE ratio. It stands at around 300 now. When I did my first analysis of NTRZ (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1352.msg71546#msg71546) I had an ambitious EPS target for 2008 of $1. That is probably overly ambitious but I do believe it is a conservative target for 2009. What will the PE ratio be in 2009? They have most likely moved to one of the major exchanges at that time. So I can't see them trade with a PE of less than 15 and most likely much higher.

Even though the last quarter was disappointing (at least from my perspective) the stock has stubbornly refused to come down to test the support at 2. We did however break the uptrend (which is most clear in the weekly chart) two weeks ago.

As said I didn't expect to be out of NTRZ for as long as I have so I will use this weakness to reestablish a position if I get a chance this time

[ScottishTrader]

NTRZ update:

Has been range trading for a while now, between 2.20 and 2.70.  Revently broke out of midline resistance at 2.42, but its still not clear whether it will break out of this current rectangle pattern sooner or later.  Friday's candle looks a bit toppy too.  Still, one to watch, as obviously its an OTCBB with real potential.

[Michael]

Oooops it seems I will have to increase my bid for NTRZ again. I had hoped that I could pick it up around 2.2 but on Thursday we had yet another insider buy this time at 2.37:

http://www.insidercow.com/forms/2007011/0001063537-07-000001.xml;jsessionid=61C961DA2926CC1C122BB7084DDEABB5

I think I have a good feeling about Nutracea's fundamentals and they certainly tell me that the stock could go much higher from here in the coming months and years. It is nice to see that the insiders share this opinion. It would have been nicer if I owned the stock though 

[la-onda]

NTRZ CEO interview:
http://publish.vx.roo.com/thestreet/portal/?clipId=1373_10331749&channel=Exec+Interviews&puc=yahoo&ts=1171091032921&bt=NS&bp=WIN&bst=FF&biec=false&format=flash&bitrate=300

chart:


good entry point has to be find...