TMTA

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your analysis and comments on TMTA 

Well, it's a volatile stock, just as we've seen yesterday. ScottishTrader is right, it isn't pleasent to start a trade with a loss: «A good trade is profitable right from the start».

But, when trading these volatile issues, we have to be a bit flexible when we think on the concept of «loss». The stock yesterday had a trading range of 13.57% (the difference between the low and the high of the day was 13.57%).

So, if we consider «loss» just 4 or 5%, unless we're extremely lucky or skillfull on our entry point, almost for sure one is wiped out due to volatility.

Actually, I've just noticed the stock hit a resistance level yesterday at $1.58, and that possibly explains the pullback. But look at the Tema turning north.

Earnings for the 3rd quarter will be out next Tuesday after the close. Second quarter earnings did that enormous spike on the chart, and they looked like this:

Transmeta Reports Record Quarterly Revenue and Positive Earnings; Achieves Positive Cash Flow from Operations of $4.8 Million; Raises Cash Guidance to $47 Million at 2005 Fiscal Year End

An interesting read, I would like to highlight this:

«The Company's net income for the second quarter of 2005 improved significantly to $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share, compared with a net loss of $21.1 million, or a loss of $0.11 per share, in the first quarter of 2005, and a net loss of $26.8 million, or a loss of $0.15 per share, in the second quarter of 2004.»

I see $0.04 per share in one quarter. If the company keeps up with this, that would mean $0.16 in one year. The stock price is $1.42, so if the company stays basically the same, the forward P/E Ratio is just 8.88. If the company grows, the P/E would be incredibly low !

After all, TMTA doesn't seem to be such a speculative play ... I see value, lots of value in TMTA !

I'll continue holding TMTA for the foreseeable future.

[shawFund]

The company said in the middle of August that the profit is unattendable.

They said that "don't expect the same profit this guarter".

That is why the stock dropped since then.

For me, I'd better wait for their earning release before taking position.

[jpm]

After Google the best stock in 2005.. big earnings Tuesday 8/11 after close market

and... more nothing 

[tugsinav]

Any reason, why do you think they will have good earning?

Thanks,

[jpm]

Tell me my feeling..

and I have a dream...

[logocovet]

JPM, would U give your reasons for liking TMTA.  (fundamental analysis or technicals).

It looks interesting.  What is a software based microprocessor?  I'll try to do some research too.

[wisebuys]

Check out the current 3SOF portfolio for more info.  It's one of the current picks.

Have a GRRRRREAT DAY !!!!

[jpm]

Hello,

I taste always of the company that makes look like a great future that is the case of the Transmeta. And ererything started with the results of 2Q in August where of big prejudices had passed to the comparative fabulosos profits the 2004.

Whatch that and good lucky...

[jpm]

My bet (hope) is that TMTA will report revenue $25-28M on Tuesday:
--License (Sony)-$10M..same as Q2
--Service $10-12M...up from Q2 consequent to addition of "milestone" fees from Sony and/or MSFT (management stated previously 2H revenue from this source would be increasing)
--Product $5-6M...down from last Q (management also predicted reduction in this line for remainder of 2005)

With consolidated gross margin of ~70%, gross profit should be ~$17.5-19.6M.
I don't expect expenses to change much ($10M), so net income 8-10M or 5-6 cents per share likely.

The biggest news for the week would be confirmation that Culturecom deal ($15M) will close in 2005, virtually insuring Q4 revenue and net income would exceed Q3--say 7-8 cents per share. Year-end guidance would then include:
--Cash position at year end $60-65M
--2005 ANNUAL PROFIT, FIRST EVER.......5-6 cents per share!!!!!!!!

What we need to follow is longer term guidance, something to sustain the momentum into 2006. How about:
--New licensee(s). I'd love Samsung, but I'm betting on another foundry partner like TSMC, Chartered, or UMC who are currently expanding 90nm production. Then there's Sony's 2 Cell partners, Toshiba and IBM...would be nice for one or both of them to join the TMTA license family.
--News about MSFT or SONY. If you think the street got excited about a Crusoe processor in a Ford truck, just wait to you see the reaction to an Efficeon processor in a MSFT device or an LR2-enabled Cell derivative (ANYTHING associated with PS3).
--Earlier than expected royalties from Fujitsu
--AMD or Intel as partners...or TMTA to join AMD in its lawsuit.

While risks certainly remain, the upside potential here is higher than ever.
Good luck, my fellow longs.

[LiveLife]

jpm,

Yes, TMTA looks very promising.

Here's my take on TMTA.  It appears that continued gain activity with 10 MA moving up, if matched with volume and MACD in continued positive territory, may repeat the gain activity of mid July-August.

[dwest718]

Jeez... i might have to reconsider putting a lot of money into CYTO tomorrow... this thing looks unbelieveably good too.  Again... if I could applaud you I would but alas I am but a lowly regular on this site.  Thanks for your awesome TA again LiveLife!

Alright well I made my decision and I'm gonna invest in both.  Dabble in hopefully the best of both worlds... what's the worst that can happen.  LiveLife could I get your opinion on CYTO?

[hudsonsgrill]

http://www.transmeta.com/corporate/career/postings.html

[hudsonsgrill]

Current Postings:

› Circuit Design Engineer [2005.10.17]
› Compiler Research and Development [2005.10.14]
› Senior Software Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Device Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Product Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Senior Compiler Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Manager - Mask Layout Design [2005.10.07]
› Circuit Design Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Senior Software Engineer [2005.10.07]
› Manager - SRAM Design [2005.09.19]
› Senior Software Engineer - Device Drivers [2005.09.19]
› Software QA Engineer [2005.08.01]
› Senior SRAM Design Engineer

Sorry, that was supposed to be with the last post.

The only thing that has held down the share price has been the analysts.   Shortly after upgrading, they downgraded for whatever reason, and I'm sure they had a bunch of "short" ones.

TMTA showed profits last quarter for the first quarter ever and they have many deals in the works....30 engineers working with Microsoft, culturecom, etc. 

I, too, expect a blowout quarter. 

[setravis]

This is a + earnings up the last four quarters.
From looking at the chart, IMHO, I see.
Falling Wedge (Reversal) Pattern.......And Breakout from the pattern.

• Transmeta Corporation Third Quarter 2005 Financial Results Call scheduled for Tue, Nov 8
Shareholder.com (Fri, Nov 4) 
Conference Call Link:     http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/3/62723.html


Support @ $1.44...1.33...1.18...1.07
Resistance @ $1.52...1.81...1.98...2.07
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is bearish

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Neutral
Nov-01-2005 Bullish Engulfing.......As always we need futher conformation. 
Oct-31-2005 Inverted Hammer 

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
11.99%above 13-day EMA
13.22%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $289.31 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/08/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Underperform

The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.

The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

As with rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, a security remains in a downtrend. The falling wedge is designed to spot a decrease in downside momentum and alert technicians to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may be diminishing, demand does not win out until resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it is important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.

[dwest718]

It looks like we're all saying the same thing... but I'll go ahead and post my chart anyway.  It's not gonna say much different from setra or Live but... here goes.

Stop-loss in at 1.18 and sell target at between $3.25 and 3.50.