TMTA

LiveLife · November 09, 2005, 02:56:00 AM

TMTA could have used the earnings report intraday!

Those that sold on "possible" bad earnings report may buy back tomorrow, driving up the demand and price.

The earnings report wasn't "spectacular," not bad either. In July, stock gained $1.00+ (the last earnings report?)

Tokyopua, if you are looking to buy in, watch for any early market open dip.

I am "all in" with PAX (both TMTA and PAX are David's "fast 3SOF picks") for now and will be watching the market open closely for either followup gain for profit taking or early market profit taking sell off after $0.55 gain from $0.45 two days ago!

Good trading!

David Randolph · November 09, 2005, 07:16:02 AM

Earnings for the 3rd quarter were good but guidance for the 4th wasn't:

«Transmeta Corp (TMTA) after the closing bell on Tuesday reported third-quarter net earnings of $10.1 million, or 5 cents a share. During the same period a year ago, Transmeta reported a net loss of $28.6 million, or 16 cents a share. The Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of computing, microprocessor and semiconductor technologies posted revenue of $27.9 million vs. $7 million a year ago. Additionally, the company forecast a fourth-quarter loss of 3 cents a share on revenue of $12 million to $13 million. Two analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call are currently looking for a fourth-quarter profit of a penny a share on revenue of $20 million. Transmeta also said it expects full-year 2005 revenue of at least $71 million.»

I've read the 8-K filing they made with the SEC yesterday, and found a company with little debt (double more cash than debt), and for the nine months ended in September, losing 2 cents a share this year versus a loss of 45 cents last year.

With the kind of margins this company has, just a little more revenue or cost cutting and it would be showing a nice profit, and it would be a steal at current prices.

All right, the 4th quarter isn't going to be great in comparison with the 3rd quarter, but I prefer to make year on year comparisons and a quarter does not make a company. If they come from a loss of 45 cents to just 2 cents (5 cents for the full year 2005, about 60 cents loss per share in 2004), imagine if they can make the same progress in 2006?

They would make a 50 cent per share profit and the P/E would be 2.5. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I think it is a possibility, since the company made this kind of progress from 2004 to 2005.

I was wrong when I held through earnings. I think I would be wrong again if I sold today. I will continue to hold, I don't see all that much fundamental risk people are seeing (not much debt, revenue coming from 3 divisions (Product, License, Service), the three with about the same share).

In 2004, when fundamentals and prospects were much worse, the stock price was higher.

I will continue to hold TMTA, I just wouldn't like to see it break the ascending trendline on the chart below, which is coming up at $1.22.

Leaira · November 09, 2005, 12:02:43 PM

Just trying to make sense of the action on TMTA and CNST today. I don't have either of them, but wanted to understand what's going on. TMTA announces a profit and the stock is down 20%. CNST posts a loss, and the stock goes up 40%. Could someone explain why these stocks did this?

Thanks,
Leaira

sebfr · November 10, 2005, 04:59:18 AM

CNST :

Yes...There is a loss : 23.5$ millions against 5.5$ millions a year ago but two thinks :

1.The results included an asset impairment charge of $22.2 million, or $1.63 a share.

2. Net sales grew 15.4% to $259 million, reflecting increased resin prices and shipments of both conventional and custom products in the United States -> good perpective

Market is always interesting in future revenue...Or surprises !!!

Technicals :
Candelstick : white marabuzu
MACD > 0 AND rsi > 50
pRCIE CLOSE above MA50
volume spike
Good base at 1.55
target at 4.00
time to buy...

sebfr · November 10, 2005, 05:09:09 AM

TMTA...

I don't know...Sometimes market react wery slowly...

But if you look at the chart...We have a great level at 1.25-1.23..investors placed their order at this level...RSI shows an oversold situation (>70)...Market just need to breathe before to increase again.1.25 was tested three times !!! I believe TMTA go to increase in the next days...Be patient. A cup and handle is forming...

buy at 1.370
target at 2.00
stop loss at 1.230

rpccpa · November 10, 2005, 07:37:32 AM

Look at the volume on the TMTA upswing vs prior weekly upswing....

This dog is going down after the dead cat to subdollar BK range....

dwest718 · November 10, 2005, 09:23:06 AM

That doesn't help me much. Nothing really is pointed out to me... and so I have no idea what you're talking about. Why does volume lead to a 75% decline? It helps to post justification for your thoughts.

David Randolph · November 10, 2005, 09:47:35 AM

TMTA touched support yesterday (I've adapted my trendline a bit) and recovered some ground to close above the opening price.

As I've said, I don't see results as bad as people are painting it, in fact, I'm quite bullish on the fundamentals of TMTA. But I need to be disciplined, so I will hold for as long as the stock shows a medium term uptrend.

I got supports at $1.28 and $1.21. If the stock is set to close below $1.21, I'll take my loss and move on, if it closes above support I'll continue holding it.

David Randolph · November 11, 2005, 06:44:08 AM

I think the worst is behind us on TMTA. The stock made a second attempt at breaking the ascending trendline and rebounded again for a close higher than the open. I think now TMTA will slowly start filling that opened gap ($1.42-$1.61).

My safety net is that second trendline that today will come at $1.22.

The trading plan is:

Hold if TMTA is set to close above $1.22, otherwise sell.

David Randolph · November 14, 2005, 05:15:16 AM

I took my position on TMTA based on technicals and fundamentals, now I have to manage it. I can't allow a big loss, because of my money management rules. But I can hold for now, since the stock is still showing respect for a medium term ascending trendline.

The trendline that's working as support will come at $1.28 today, but my safety net is a bit below, today at $1.23.

The trading plan is:

1) Hold if the stock is set to close above $1.23
2) If the stock is set to close below $1.23, sell.

David Randolph · November 15, 2005, 08:39:36 AM

TMTA is a no brainer, if the stock is set to close below $1.24 I'll sell for a manageable loss. If not I'll continue holding.

David Randolph · November 16, 2005, 07:48:28 AM

TMTA slightly broke an ascending trendline, but I'm considering another one for hold/sell decisions. That one is coming up at $1.24 today. I hope the stock holds that level on close, but if it is set to close below $1.24 I'll sell without regrets.

David Randolph · November 17, 2005, 08:03:25 AM

Trading Plan for TMTA: IF the stock is set to close today positive or unchanged, HOLD. IF it is set to close negative, SELL.

David Randolph · November 18, 2005, 06:49:37 AM

Unfortunately I had to let go of TMTA yesterday at $1.23, according to plan. I wish good luck to anybody that continues holding.

dwest718 · January 22, 2006, 11:46:24 PM

TMTA could be coming back again! Good MACD with solid bounce off of 200 dma a couple weeks ago and a break of the 50 dma and a descending wedge. Also had a golden cross a few months ago. Has solid support at 1.40 and 1.25 and little resistance until 1.80 or 1.85. Some solid volume recently. Good upward movement over past few weeks with no earnings to ruin it. Recent news has been neutral and fundamentals are improving with very little debt. Hoping the trend continues and looking for a move towards 1.80 during the next month before any pull back. Here's an updated chart:

News:

TMTA