TMTA

[Terliso]

Nice trade Melf

[tokyopua]

I am in at 1.57.  Also considering getting in for a bounce on AVII, also down 33% today, anyone have any thoughts on that?

[Melf Elf]

Nice trade Melf

Thanks, Alister.  I thought about taking half at the 1.664 Wolfe Wave target play back, but it was so early in the day, I decided to hold out for the 1.70s.  So far, that 1.67 remains the high on the day.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda, huh?   

I'm grateful for whatever Ms. Market offers, even if it's only a tiny gain. 

[Melf Elf]

I thought about taking half at the 1.664 Wolfe Wave target play back

Oops...when I calculated the three downside targets yesterday morning, I forgot to add one day to the Wolfe Wave target line to factor for yesterday's trading, so I was off by 0.015, which is the slope of the target line.  It came in yesterday at 1.649, not 1.664.  The other two targets weren't time-related, so they weren't affected.

Sorry for the mistake.

[Melf Elf]

Sold TMTA at 1.58.  Gain: 2.6%

Bought back TMTA at 1.50.  Stop: 1.44 again.  Risk: a loss of 4%

They might try to take it down again to the morning low of 1.51, or the 200DMA at 1.49.  I decided to take the money.

TMTA just printed the 1.49 200DMA.  The low of the Ascending Triangle (blue pattern in the daily chart posted above) was 1.48.  I'll give a few more pennies below that (Stop:1.44) intraday, but if it looks like it's going to close weak, I'll sell it.

TMTA currently is BID 1.49...ASK 1.50

[Melf Elf]

Bought back TMTA at 1.50.  Stop: 1.44 again.  Risk: a loss of 4%

Aww-w...they got me.  Stopped out at 1.44.  Loss: 4%

Tactical mistake: I should have put my stop at 1.47, below the 1.48-1.49 support.   Technically, the stock didn't deserve any room below 1.48, and that would have given me a break even on the two trades.  My bad.

[Se7en]

I'm still holding and i was hoping for a little bounce but it's the contrary, the market isn't helping either right now ... 

[Melf Elf]

I'm still holding and i was hoping for a little bounce but it's the contrary, the market isn't helping either right now ... 

Se7en,

That's an awful position to be in.  I've been there, believe me.

I hate to see you hold it so long, though.  As much as these situations hurt, you don't want to turn a loss into a disaster.

From yesterday's open of 1.585 to today's low of 1.31 was another 17.4% loss, which is an additional 34.8% loss for anyone who "doubled down."  That's the problem with these stocks that get pounded.  They can be good for a quick day trade, but they don't tend to bounce too much, "in general," and they can really hurt you.

I mean "you," in general, not "you," specifically, Se7en.  Apologies for the speech, but I hate see any of you guys get hurt too badly.  I remember too well how bad it feels.

Anyway, I can't advise you what to do.  I wouldn't be that presumptuous.  It's YOUR money.  But, if you've held this long and suffered through today's tank to 1.31, you've got a chance of some rally if TMTA can continue to come back here, and close on a Bullish Hammer or a Bullish Doji Star at or near the 200DMA, which is 1.49.  TMTA has come all the way to BID 1.45...ASK  1.46, currently.

Try to get out of it as best you can, and remember what Beroznikmal said about taking his dog for a walk.  It puts things into perspective.  You don't want to let any trade hurt you too badly, so that it depletes your resources so that you can't play other profitable opportunites.

Sorry for the speech, Se7en.  I don't mean to lecture...just to share my own painful experiences with holding on too long, and with "doubling down."  HORRIBLE.

Good luck!  You get an applause for encouragement. 

[Se7en]

Thx for the advice Melf Elf, you're absolutely right, i was thinking the same but it's always good(or better) to hear it from an experienced trader like you!

I wasn't online untill now so i couldn't folllow your advice but i'm planning to sell tomorrow morning or do you think that with this little comeback and a hammer that got printed a reverse is in the works, still needs confirmation though !
Hmm i'm doing it again, so sell on the open, right?

[Melf Elf]

you've got a chance of some rally if TMTA can continue to come back here, and close on a Bullish Hammer or a Bullish Doji Star at or near the 200DMA, which is 1.49.

Se7en,

I had a suspicion that they'd close it out near the 1.49 because that's about as EVIL a close possible, and we know how Ms. Market likes to be perverse.

   

It's sooo-oo EVIL because it looks so good, but it's still "so bad."

So Good:
1. It's a Bullish Hammer, showing "promise."

still needs confirmation though !

Exactly. 

2. It's a Bullish Hammer closing right on the 200DMA, which looks very encouraging. 

3. The downside smash yesterday to 1.31 "looks like" capitulation on the part of the bulls, which is how bottoms are made.  Bulls finally "give it up," and sell at the low, then new buyers step in, which is what occurred yesterday afternoon.  That rally from 1.31 to the 1.49 close was a rally of 13.7%.  Not bad.

But, was it just a "snap back" rally, or will it follow through to the upside?  We don't know.

So Bad:

1. Despite the 13.74% late day rally, anyone who bought on Crash Day (High: 1.67...Low: 1.51) and still is holding it long is under water at yesterday's 1.49 close.   The rally didn't put them in the money.  Ugh.

2. The "Crash Day" longs are encouraged by yesterday's Bullish Hammer, but they're plenty nervous after seeing TMTA tank to 1.31 yesterday.  If they were "lucky enough" to buy the Crash Day low of 1.51, those players had a paper loss of 13.2% at yesterday's 1.31 low.  Not so "lucky."

3. On any print today of 1.51 or higher, the "Crash Day" longs start to break even, after suffering a paper loss yesterday of 13.2% MINIMUM.  Many of the "Crash Day" longs paid more than 1.51.  If they bought the 1.585 open, their paper loss at 1.31 was 17.4%.  That's a BIG loss, and many of them would like to get out of this stock at a break even.

TMTA would really have to convince those players to remain long.  If it shows weakness, looking lifeless, they'll likely bolt for the exit, particularly ahead of the weekend.  They didn't get any bargain on Crash Day, and they'd like to be done with it.

i'm planning to sell tomorrow morning or do you think that with this little comeback and a hammer that got printed a reverse is in the works, still needs confirmation though !
Hmm i'm doing it again, so sell on the open, right?

Yes, you're doing it again, but you've certainly got reason to be doing it again: that close looked so good.  It "could have been" at least a short-term capitualtion low, but it also could have been "pure evil," and TMTA could tank back to yesterday's low, and below it.

What I would suggest is this, and I'm only suggesting: if you don't sell at the open, also don't ride this thing back down to 1.31, or lower.  If that was a reversal low yesterday, there should upside follow through today, not weakness and tanking again.  Personally, I wouldn't give it much room at all on the downside.  That's up to you, of course.

Good luck today!

[Se7en]

thx Melf Elf, very very informative, like always!  <applause>
It looks like the market isn't going to help much either today, futures are down ...

[Se7en]

TMTA breaking out? Up 8% now, (can't post the chart here at home)!

[dwest718]

Bottomed and starting a bit of a run if history serves this stock well.  Bought 600 shares this afternoon.

[Holygrale]

Nice breakout from base.............

[boatguy]

News!! Up .20 cents to $1.32 AH

Transmeta files patent infringement suit against Intel

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=FLJLWLS3Y1IEIQSNDLOSKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=193200733