FORD

[metro]

Today it went right up to the 50% retrace resistance at 16.85 and pulled back about 5%C so got back in at 15.60 as seems trend may have changed. Weekly chart not yet up but the daily nice

Fibonacci lines are not always real targets as stocks can overshoot but the correct placement can help in getting closer to them when they do work

You want to place them at point of low and highs of major trend changes. You can pretty much see as once you place them you should see that they also followed other support resistance points.

[shawFund]

I closed my position at open today - $16.82.

Reason: yesterday's close was at the high and that is why I did not close my position before yesterday's close as I normally do to avoid overnight risk.

I was expecting an opening gap today and it did so.

So I put a market sell order once the market opened today.

For me, I am satisfied with the gain made in 2 hours.

Will continue watching it and taking positions if things look good.

I have catched few big bullish runs lately: EGHT, SPEX, FORD, ELN, NMGC, ARM.

I found out that once the huge volumes together with price running up,
it is very hard to stop the trend.

Once I took position, I set up a mental stop-loss bar: 10 cents below my purchasing price.
For very bullish stocks, I see no corrections of more than 10 cents at all during the runs.

It may have some rest but not down during the run.

That is, my maximum risk is set to 10 cents.

And as long as the correction is less than 10 cents during the run, I  just keep my position.

That is for very bullish stocks.

Have fun.

[422fwhp]

...maybe a lower volume down day on Monday, setting up a G-pattern, and then a gap fill?

Sounds great!  Now let's see what happens.

I nibbled some at $15.85

[Terliso]

I Cancelled my order for tomorrow...
I'm gonna wait when safer play for FORD shows up
If i see EMA rises and prices close above it.. then i'll jump in
goodluck for those who hold!!

Moving averages serve as support and resistance zones. A rising MA tends to serve as a floor below prices, and a falling MA serves as a ceiling above them. That's why it pays to buy near a rising MA, and sell short near a falling MA. 
(Trading for a Living)

[David Randolph]

Well, I was a bit lucky when I puschased FORD at $14.35, because just after that the President and COO of the company exercised options to buy 25,000 FORD shares at $3.25.

This may mean nothing, since the current stock price is much higher than this and the insider could just sell the 25,000 now for an handsome profit.

But, probably he won't do that, usually they hold shares for a minimum period of 6 months. This may be a sign that the 4th quarter is going well, that is, it may be closer to the last quarter numbers (revenues of $18M, EPS of $0.44) than the year ago numbers (revenues of $8M, EPS of  $0.21).

I think the market has discounted the worst case scenario when the stock went down to $14, now it will discount the better case scenario going back up to fill the gap and touch the descending trendline, at around $23-$24.

If the 3rd quarter earnings were to hold for 4 consecutive quarters, on average, the company would then be trading at an earnings multiple of 9. It is too cheap, especially since the company and I expect strong growth for the future.

A close above $16.75 would put those shorts running for the exit and provide the fuel for a fill the gap rise. I believe that, after some fight, this will be the final outcome, so I'll continue holding FORD.

[David Randolph]

FORD is coming down after a failure to surpass the $16.60-$16.75 resistance zone. I still believe the company's numbers won't be as bad as most people are expecting, and the future is bright for this company selling at a trailing P/E of 12 coupled with strong growth.

I think FORD has the possibility of moving higher even though the general market may decline. Although it would be a pity to see a 15% profit turn into a loss, that's the cost of long term investing.

And long term investing, at least in some stocks, is a strategy that can't be beaten. I'll write more on this issue on an article for the «Strategic Orientation Board», probably tomorrow.

FORD is coming down on much lower volume than it did when it went up, and that's a positive.

[shawFund]

FORD cannot pass the 9-EMA and is still in down trend. That is what I mean mini-bull.

AMD is very very bullish. Even semi sector is down, AMD continues its bull run and is only $1 away from my year-end target of $30.00.

I have been holding it for two years (only traded twice in two years span). One is the end of last year and bought it later (I predicted $25 target for last year and it reached a high of $24.95).

The next trade will be the end of this year once it is near the target.

I am expecting semi sector will have a mini rebound next few days. 483 is at a very strong suport.

[David Randolph]

I'm still expecting for FORD to provide a new white marubozu that crosses the $16.60-$16.75 resistance zone. Fundamentals tell me the stock is very attractive at this point, even though technicals are bearish (but they would turn bullish if there were to be a close above $16.75).

Let's see who wins, fundamental or technical traders. I hope fundamental traders win. I'll continue holding whatever happens, since I feel it is just a matter of time before the technical picture improves.

[shawFund]

FORD is oversold, no doubt about it.

The institution dumped this stock at the hint of earning decline from FORD management.

I fully believe that all stocks are bad (That is the word from CEO of IBD) in nature. Always have doubts on any earning report.

Will do day trading on it. It seems that $14.50 is strong support.

By the way, bought back MESA, SWIR.

MESA has nice recovery in $8.25 and is about 20% from its recent low. If it tradd back to $12, that is almost 50% gain.

SWIR has about 10% gain so far from its low. If it goes back to $14, that is about 35% gain.

All bounced back from oversold. They are still in uptrend.

Will be looking into MPS (just bought it at $13.37), TRAD also.

David's picks GIVE US THE CANDADITES to trade good stocks but be very careful on any bad news, possible private placement, etc.

[shawFund]

The chart looks like that break-down may happen. Lower highs.

What I am going to do?

From long term investment point of view, this stock is oversold and should go up from here.

Short term, prepare for break-down to wash out weak hands before the reversal.

[David Randolph]

FORD had 6 consecutive days of declines and I'm still in the green with it, although by a small margin.

It took 6 days for bears to make up nfor 1 day job from the bulls. Perhaps bulls will come to work another day and they will kill shorts, on a close above $16.75.

I'm convinced this last quarter of the year won't be as weak as people are expecting. If EPS comes in like in the second quarter, at $0.33 (instead of $0.44 like in the 4th quarter), the annualized earnings multiple would still be 11, which is quite cheap.

I'll continue holding FORD.

[usedcasting]

Halted trading! Lets see what the news brings.

uc.

[David Randolph]

The news are very bad 

«Forward Industries Updates First Quarter Guidance
Dec 23, 2005 9:44:00 AM
Copyright Business Wire 2005

POMPANO BEACH, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 23, 2005--

Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today updated its financial guidance for the first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005. The following statements are forward looking and actual results may differ materially. Please see the description of certain risk factors in this release and Forward's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete description of risk factors.

First Fiscal Quarter Business Outlook

Based on the current business outlook, the Company now anticipates that its first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005 revenues will be $8.3 to $8.7 million. In its previous guidance issued November 17, 2005, the Company previously anticipated that such revenues would be higher than the $8.9 million recorded in the first fiscal quarter of last year. The Company attributed the shortfall to the timing of certain orders that it now expects to ship in its second fiscal quarter.

Based on the current outlook, the Company also introduced guidance as to net income per share for the quarter. It expects to report net income of 8 to 12 cents per fully diluted share, compared to 21 cents per fully diluted share in the same quarter of fiscal 2005. We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.

In announcing the update, Forward's Chairman and CEO Jerome Ball stated, "We are off to a solid start in Fiscal 2006, with revenues for the first fiscal quarter similar to last year's excellent first quarter, but coming in lower than we originally anticipated. We are disappointed that the factors described above will reduce our reported earnings per share for this quarter; however, we believe that we continue to execute well and are optimistic about the balance of the year. We will provide additional details when we formally announce our quarterly results and file our 10-QSB with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we expect to be in the first week of February."

About Forward Industries

Forward Industries, Inc. designs and distributes custom carrying case solutions primarily for cellular phones and home medical diagnostic equipment. The Company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers and also markets a line of Carry Solutions under the "Motorola" brand name. Forward's products can be viewed online at www.fwdinnovations.com and www.forwardindustries.com.»

I will sell this above $13 if I have the chance !

[shawFund]

So, the chart already showed the weakness. Never trust the past fundamental.

The stock is still in downtrend. Do not catch the falling knife.

It is halted for trading. May be that buying into panic selling is good.

This time, selling on rumor and buying into the fact may provide a good trading strategy (I mean short term or day trading).

Look at NVAX it is up today.

Buying on panic selling yesterday and selling today ($3.6->$4.2 18% gain in one day).

[shawFund]

It is about $10.00 - $11.00 range. 20% down. The biggest loser (percentage) in NASDAQ today.

Wait for a while, it is all overreaction.