FORD

[la-onda]

It is about $10.00 - $11.00 range. 20% down. The biggest loser (percentage) in NASDAQ today.

Wait for a while, it is all overreaction.

10$ a good entry point ?

cheers
Oliver

[metro]

Big drop on what was already known actually - had technical probs could not place a trade at the low but low enough for good risk rewrd for short term trade


http://tinyurl.com/7rcuh

[shawFund]

It finds support at $11. But I think that it is difficult to go over $12.

Let us see.

[David Randolph]

This is the worst of all:

«We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.»

I was expecting something like $14M in revenues (down from $18M), they will come in between $8.3 to $8.7M, instead.

I was able to get out at a not so bad price, if I wasn't talking on the phone I could have gotten out around $14.

Good luck everybody, I'm going to buy some Christmas presents now, not been having good trading days lately, I hope the new year brings in new profits.

[smirnofz]

wow, this is my most painful trade this year!! 6% of my portfolio wiped out in one day - and on a holiday weekend as well!!!

think i will take a loss here and go buy some other better companies. preservation of capital is important here.

wishing you all a merry christmas. will think of how to repair this hole after a nice christmas pudding and a glass of brandy.

[oicpecnoc]

David,

I wasn't in this one, but  I am curious on how you got out of this one at that price after it was halted.  My bid ask had 12.92 on the bid, and when it opened it went straight south.  I have had stops in front of bad news with no limit on 4 or 5 occasions, and nobody ever bites mine on the way down.  What is your secret?  I am not being sarcastic, I would really like to know.  Who was buying at your exit price after it was halted?  I didn't see anybody buying at that price.  Maybe you got out right when it got released, but that would be pretty amazing for a guy who does not pay attention to the intraday action very often to time it 100% exactly right.  Kudos to you for doing it, I just want to know how so I can avoid losses in the future.  With my experience, my order would have been filled somewhere in the 11's with the action I saw, based on what I've looked at in previous experiences. 

[metro]

I sold at 11.33 so a bit under a buck gain - -..anyway this 5-min chart just shows how it ran up to the 11.50 area and could not go higher so a decent place to take profits on a high vol down day. I have the 9 period EMA on the chart and a god break back above it may be a day trade again. However on sell off days the bottom usually gets tested - does not have to be the former bottom of course but a second drop. A lot of folks are trapped and they may want out if it goes up so often better to stand aside until they are out.



This second chart shows the top after the spike to resistance at 16.85 and the line is the 9-day - often it is good to buy back when a stock goes back above the 9-day but this one never did and it instead broke below the white candle so not a good sign.



Anyway - some use the 8 MA but I prefer the 9 EMA and I suffer some whipsaws but it also can keep me out of a lot of trouble at time

BTW the airline sector has been very strong lately and LUV still a nice chart

This one UALAQ has just gone up 30% over the last few days but had a break out today and is likely to keep going



and live chart

http://tinyurl.com/c3365

------
oicpecnoc

must have had a sell order at market when it was halted or got in a fast sell when it opened- It opened at 13.64 and ran to 14 beforee falling as you can see on the trades below  -

[Ramsburg]

Hi,

Here's a complete list of trades from the first 5 seconds after it was stop being halted.
Note:
Volume = 100's share lots
Time = hour:minute:seconds:miliseconds
Source: Reuters Bridge Channel

regards,

[oicpecnoc]

Hey Fred,

I'm just asking if it was luck?  Did you have a market order to sell your shares, a stop with no stop limit or what?  After bad news, I am never so lucky to have so many buyers at a reasonable price.  NEVER.  I wasn't paying that close of attention, but it did drop within seconds it seemed like to the 11's.  I know there must have been many market orders in the 13's get passed by, and I just wondered if there was something specific you did differently than me, or if it was just good fortune.

[la-onda]

Forward Industries (FORD ) cut its $8.9 million first quarter revenue guidance to $8.3 million to $8.7 million, due to the timing of certain orders it now expects to ship in the second quarter. It sees 8 cents to 12 cents first quarter earnings per share.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2005/pi20051223_2300_pi004.htm

Question 1:
Minus 30% because of 0.6 Mio $ missing revenue based on late timing of some orders?

Forward Industries Updates First Quarter Guidance
Friday , December 23, 2005 09:44 ET

POMPANO BEACH, Fla., Dec 23, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD), a designer and distributor of custom carrying case solutions, today updated its financial guidance for the first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005. The following statements are forward looking and actual results may differ materially. Please see the description of certain risk factors in this release and Forward's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete description of risk factors.

First Fiscal Quarter Business Outlook

Based on the current business outlook, the Company now anticipates that its first fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2005 revenues will be $8.3 to $8.7 million. In its previous guidance issued November 17, 2005, the Company previously anticipated that such revenues would be higher than the $8.9 million recorded in the first fiscal quarter of last year. The Company attributed the shortfall to the timing of certain orders that it now expects to ship in its second fiscal quarter.

Based on the current outlook, the Company also introduced guidance as to net income per share for the quarter. It expects to report net income of 8 to 12 cents per fully diluted share, compared to 21 cents per fully diluted share in the same quarter of fiscal 2005. We anticipate that the lower earnings per share will reflect a higher weighted average number of shares outstanding (approximately 20%) than in the comparable quarter of fiscal 2005, a projected higher effective tax rate, lower margins due primarily to pricing pressure on some of its key products, and higher operating costs at its Hong Kong facility.

In announcing the update, Forward's Chairman and CEO Jerome Ball stated, "We are off to a solid start in Fiscal 2006, with revenues for the first fiscal quarter similar to last year's excellent first quarter, but coming in lower than we originally anticipated. We are disappointed that the factors described above will reduce our reported earnings per share for this quarter; however, we believe that we continue to execute well and are optimistic about the balance of the year. We will provide additional details when we formally announce our quarterly results and file our 10-QSB with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we expect to be in the first week of February."

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7bb49c1be517c9f9d4d04b7b00cc6d65a2c49bc608592e8403e43ec65f80a531

[nberski]

Heck:

What to do now? 

Hate to sell it now - but

I got caught -- -- Had to take Effie to the horsepital this AM.  Got back -- it was below 11.

I can sit on it for a while  - - -  ?  it is worth keeping at this price 10.05  ?

[Terliso]

I Cancelled my order for tomorrow...
I'm gonna wait when safer play for FORD shows up
If i see EMA rises and prices close above it.. then i'll jump in
goodluck for those who hold!!

Moving averages serve as support and resistance zones. A rising MA tends to serve as a floor below prices, and a falling MA serves as a ceiling above them. That's why it pays to buy near a rising MA, and sell short near a falling MA. 
(Trading for a Living)

I'm so lucky BABY!!!!!

[422fwhp]

Yea, I got stuck too.  Making decisions based on end-of-day candlesticks doesn't really do much for you here...   

[shawFund]

Basically, there was no way to get out above $12 after it resumed its trading today.

The MM had to take care of its own shares before individuals. It droped to a low of $8.5 in three minutes then recovered back to a high of $11.50, followed by gradually decline to $9.95.

During the process, I bought it at $10.40 then exit at $10.20, took $0.20 loss (800 shares and $180 loss).

One bad investment will wrap out many previous gains.

If one bought at $14.6 and did not have the chance to get out today, that isa  32% loss.
If only 6.6% is allocated into this stock, it only lost about 2% in the whole portfolio. If you have a higher weight, the loss will hurt more.

So, diversification is a must.

Even for day traders like myself cannot avoid the sudden drop because the news is announced during the tradinghours not afte hours.

Recent big drops in our portfolio include:

NVAX - new share offering,
SCMR - downgrade
FORD - lower guidence
GSS - private placement
EYII.OB - giving missleading information
TMTA - bad earning release

Also some very lucky escapes:

BIDU -  sold before bad earning release
HYRF.OB - sold before cheating is found
...

No stock is good unless you earned money on it.

I have been lucky, selected some good companies to invest long term such as AMD, SYNA, RHAT, ... and still gained 65% this year (biggest loss EYII.OB about $8,000.00).

I started a day-trading account this month (Dec) and managed to have gained about 6% so far. I will summerize the monthly performence at the end of this month.

Good luck to all of you.

[David Randolph]

Hey Fred,

I'm just asking if it was luck?  Did you have a market order to sell your shares, a stop with no stop limit or what?  After bad news, I am never so lucky to have so many buyers at a reasonable price.  NEVER.  I wasn't paying that close of attention, but it did drop within seconds it seemed like to the 11's.  I know there must have been many market orders in the 13's get passed by, and I just wondered if there was something specific you did differently than me, or if it was just good fortune.

I have 3 accounts to trade shares:

- Ameritrade
- Trading Direct
- Fincor

This Fincor is a small Portuguese Broker and the owner is a close friend of mine (it is a very small brokerage house and he's the one that usually puts my orders in the market). I held FORD at Fincor. I was talking on the phone with him and suddenly he said «you got out at $13.64».

I believe he had a sell order on the market at $13 long before the stock opened for trading, since I specifically told him that I would sell anything above $13, as I said on the e-mail alert I sent that morning while the stock was halted.

Anyway, I feel it is unfair to use $13.64 as the selling price, since probably not many people were able to sell above $13 as I said it would be wise. Also, the 3 Stocks on Fire service is an end of the day service and I don't want subscribers to be worried about watching the intraday activity.

I was prepared to take a big punch, since I hold just 6.66% of capital in each stock (maximum of 15 different stocks held on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio) and that is my recommendation in terms of money management rules to all subscribers.

Considering all this, I'll correct the selling price on FORD from $13.64 to today's opening price so the loss by most subscribers that followed this recommendation stays «on record».