GIGM - Sector: Technology---Industry: Multimedia & Graphics Software

[AustinPowers]

Michael-

Thank you for bringing this stock to my attention.  I am in at $2.32 since last week.  I notice there is some pumping on the yahoo boards for this stock so it appears that this stock will be on many radar screens, especially after the WPTE offer and the volume on Friday. 

Melf, Thx for the chart analysis.  I appreciate seeing your charts as I am trying to learn the art of chart reading myself.  HAve a tough time picking up those small/ short term head and shoulder formations.  These charts prove as terrific validations of the moves.  I'm curious if you wouldn't mind looking at the SIRI chart for me and provide your opinion.  Thx

[Melf Elf]

Michael-

Melf, Thx for the chart analysis.  I appreciate seeing your charts as I am trying to learn the art of chart reading myself.  HAve a tough time picking up those small/ short term head and shoulder formations.  These charts prove as terrific validations of the moves.  I'm curious if you wouldn't mind looking at the SIRI chart for me and provide your opinion.  Thx

I've been looking at SIRI since I read the Motley Fool article from July 7.  I put the chart and the article in the SIRI file for you.

[Melf Elf]

I bought GIGM at $2.50 on the pullback to the triangle breakout, basis the daily chart.  Stop is a close or obvious late day tank blow 2.13.  GIGM currently is 2.49 BID...2.49 ASK.

[Melf Elf]

Oops...here's the daily chart:

[eliteG]

man those are great looking charts Melf(applaud) wish things go just go straight up for once!

[Melf Elf]

man those are great looking charts Melf(applaud) wish things go just go straight up for once!

Thanks.  I hope that you don't think that you created a monster, teaching me how to post my "pizza" charts. 

[David Randolph]

I know I'm not the first one to bring GIGM to the stage on 3SOF, I just hope I'm not the last  

This is Michael's pick, and he's a very good fundamental analyst ! So, fundamentals and technicals are working in tandem in GIGM.

Reading Michael's thread on the Stock Picking Board makes me know a lot about the company's businesses and prospects.

I wonder if I should dig more ... no, I shouldn't, there's no way in 10 or 20 minutes I'll know more about the company than what is already stated in Michael's analysis. So I'll just go a bit deeper into what I know best, technical analysis:



The stock closed at a new 52 week high on Friday with volume above average (or it wouldn't surpass my filtering). The current advance phase has more volume than the last one, so one can suspect it will go higher than the $2.56 previous relative high.

The trend is clearly bullish and if we ever go higher than $3.70 we enter a territory not seen in GIGM since the bubble days in 2000. In fact, GIGM made it's debut on the Nasdaq on 18th February of 2000. The debut price was $63.5. What the heck, let me show you the all history chart for GIGM:



At this time we possibly have a perfect setup to buy GIGM at Monday's open. I could have bought it earlier, but ... I think we're still far away from being too late, no stock is ever too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling (and you go tell the stock is too high to the people who still own it from the IPO  ).

This analysis was part of the Top 10 stocks for Monday. At the end of the thread I concluded to buy 6.66% of capital in GIGM. Now I've started this new thread to update my analysis on GIGM everyday until I sell the stock.

[David Randolph]

I've spent some years speculating in stocks and I know it is very hard, almost impossible, to accurately predict if a stock will have a pullback or not.

We can determine trend, but using oscillators to grasp overbought and oversold conditions is a foolish play.

I'm not a bit worried because I bought GIGM yesterday and I'm losing 6.67%. I have my position in a technically and fundamentally backed stock and that's all I care about.

My method only shows stocks for consideration if they had a white candle with volume above average on the previous day. So I couldn't find GIGM while it was experiencing a pullback.

[David Randolph]

GIGM will report earnings next Tuesday: GigaMedia to Report First-Quarter 2005 Financial Results on July 19

If Michael is right about the fundamentals of this company probably earnings will be a positive surprise. I have a simple plan to trade this stock, and that is to hold it as long as it closes above that ascending trendline (in fact I've changed my chart to semi-log scale, or it would be possible for the stock to run a lot away from the ascending trendline. The semi-log scale will be a better chart to evaluate the medium to long term trend going forward.)

[Michael]

David,

You might see that just the release of the earning date will give the stock a lift. The last report was late and some has been concerned that this report also would be late.

I think they can't wait too release the figures. That is why we have an early date 

[David Randolph]

Well, GIGM didn't get a boost from announcing the earnings release date. It will be Tuesday before the open. I count on Michael to give us a first hand analysis (sorry about giving you work  ).

The ascending trendline that supports price (and my long position) will be at $2.40 on Monday, so I hope the stock doesn't go down before the earnings release. Anyway, I won't be too rigid on this plan, it depends on market action, day by day.

[Melf Elf]

A print of 2.54 today is another bullish pattern technical breakout.

[jeff46902]

What's meant by the term "print", as in a print of $2.54?

Thanks
Jeff

[Melf Elf]

What's meant by the term "print", as in a print of $2.54?

Thanks
Jeff

It means "trade at that price." 

I guess that's a throwback to the old days when they used those ticker tape machines, and the trades would get "printed" on a tape, and come out of the machine.  "It's crossing the tape at 2.54," or "we need a print of 2.54 for a breakout" mean "a trade at 2.54."

GIGM didn't break out yesterday, but it put in a doji star hammer at the bottom of the pattern. then rallied and closed five cents higher in a down market.  That's a nice day for GIGM.  A doji star is a candlestick in which the open and the close are nearly identical, and they appear almost as a single horizontal line across the vertical line.

The hammer part means that the stock is trying to "hammer out a bottom."  In this case, at the bottom of the falling wedge pattern.  GIGM opened at 2.46, went down to 2.34 and held at the bottom of the falling wedge, then came right back up and closed at 2.45, poised for a pattern breakout.  Volume also improved over Friday's selloff, which is good.

Poised for a pattern breakout means that "it's in position," or "it's ready to breakout."  Yesterday's test of support at the bottom of the pattern did turn out to be support, then GIGM rallied into the close. 

It could remain in the wedge, and go down and test the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, but yesterday's nice candlestick, with the stock closing at the high end of the trading range, "looks ready."

We'll see.  The top of the wedge is sloping down, so the pattern breakout for today is lowered to "a print of 2.50."      We would like to see it trade there, then head higher toward the two bullish pattern targets (2.95 - 3.11)  on increasing volume.

Those targets are only what these two pattens suggest.  GIGM could go higher than that if it breaks out.

EDIT: I'd also like to see "a print of 2.50" because that's exactly what I paid for GIGM, and I'd like to start making a profit. 

[Melf Elf]

TAIPEI, Taiwan, July 18 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- GigaMedia Limited ("GigaMedia" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GIGM) today postponed by one day its first quarter 2005 earnings release and investor webcast due to a severe typhoon affecting Taiwan and southern China.

The new schedule is as follows:

GigaMedia will report the Company's first-quarter 2005 financial results on Wednesday, July 20, 2005 before the market opens.