ELN

[shawFund]

Hi, Dav:

It seems to me that buying pull back is safer compared with buying break out.

VPHM is a very good example. BCON is another one.

Do not see much downside risk buying ELN at this level.

Another reward/risk analysis for ELN?

[shawFund]

Today the market up but bio and drug sector index are down.

ELN holds well up 2 cents.

Ready to go up from here?

[David Randolph]

I'm making 3 buy backs today. Not much time to explain why, but the rest of the thread gives you the reasoning and the chart below shows why now.

ELN is the buy back stock #2 at today's open !

(This recommendation was made by David Randolph from 3 Stocks on Fire. 3 Stocks on Fire is a Community of stock traders and investors. Our 2851 members change trading ideas and strategies on our message boards everyday. We welcome you as a new member of the 3 Stocks on Fire Community, please take 10 seconds to register and receive our free newsletter)

[shawFund]

Look at MYOG another bio company, perfect chart, up 67% today.

[Melf Elf]

Looks good, David.  Just bought ELN at 8.25.  Stop is a close below the trendline, which I show at 8.069 for today, which looks a little lower than yours.  It rises at .0506 per day, so 8.1196, or 8.12 for tomorrow (Friday).  Risk is a loss of 1.6%, or less, if I don't get stopped out today.  Good luck.

[Prfsr Hal]

Whatever their real and long-term future holds, their near term future is pretty directly linked to the fluctuating fate of Tysaberi.  I think that the PPS is based less on fact and more on hope that if no new catastrophic announcement comes out that the worst of the bad news has passed.  A lot of people lost a lot when it plunged and are hoping it will rise back toward its previous levels.

Prfsr Hal

[David Randolph]

There's a lot to say about ELN today:

1) I've changed my trendline a bit to match Melf Elf's trendline. His makes more sense, a technical analyst must addapt the technical information to the new developments. So, for today the ascending trendline stands at $8.12.

2) I agree with Prfsr Hal:

Whatever their real and long-term future holds, their near term future is pretty directly linked to the fluctuating fate of Tysabri.  I think that the PPS is based less on fact and more on hope that if no new catastrophic announcement comes out that the worst of the bad news has passed.  A lot of people lost a lot when it plunged and are hoping it will rise back toward its previous levels.

Prfsr Hal

I'm not one of those people, I'm buying the stock around current levels. Bought yesterday at $8.33, so losing just a bit. But you're right, the short term future of ELN is linked to Tysabri, and there's the rumor the drug will come back to the market:

«Elan Corp-ELN Tysabri regulatory approval could happen by end of 2005-Unison.ie
Aug 18, 2005 9:26:00 AM

Following the August 9th announcement that no new cases of the rare fatal brain condition PML had been identified, ELN could receive regulatory approval for its MS drug treatment Tysabri from the Food and Drugs Administration by the end of 2005, predicts Davy healthcare analyst Jack Gorman. If approved, the drug would be back on the market and in pharmacies by June 2006. ELN's marketing partner for Tysabri is BIIB.»

RULE 22 says: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact.

[Tirebldr]

Following our leader!!!!

In @ $8.17

[Melf Elf]

Looks good, David.  Just bought ELN at 8.25.  Stop is a close below the trendline, which I show at 8.069 for today, which looks a little lower than yours.  It rises at .0506 per day, so 8.1196, or 8.12 for tomorrow (Friday).  Risk is a loss of 1.6%, or less, if I don't get stopped out today.  Good luck.

They got me on that one, those devils!          

ELN was BID 8.09...ASK 8.10 for about the last fifteen minutes of trading.   At 15 seconds before the close, I sold since it was set to close below 8.12.  Half the order was filled at 8 seconds before the close, half the order was filled at 12 seconds after the close, both at 3.11, for a loss of 1.7%

However...at 3 seconds after the close, 2,000 went through at 8.12.  At 25 seconds after the close, 12,800 shares went through at 8.12.  And, at 43 seconds after the close 202,200 shares went through at 3.12, and the close is 3.12, exactly on the trendline! 

That's okay.  I've had plenty of trades in which I was glad that I sold when a stock was set to close below a trendline, and I'm glad that the trendline held on a closing basis for the rest of you who are long.

The trendline comes in on Monday, August 22 at 3.1702.  Good luck to everyone long ELN!

[la-onda]

3.11, 3.12 ??
not 8.11 and 8.12?

Looks good, David.  Just bought ELN at 8.25.  Stop is a close below the trendline, which I show at 8.069 for today, which looks a little lower than yours.  It rises at .0506 per day, so 8.1196, or 8.12 for tomorrow (Friday).  Risk is a loss of 1.6%, or less, if I don't get stopped out today.  Good luck.

They got me on that one, those devils!          

ELN was BID 8.09...ASK 8.10 for about the last fifteen minutes of trading.   At 15 seconds before the close, I sold since it was set to close below 8.12.  Half the order was filled at 8 seconds before the close, half the order was filled at 12 seconds after the close, both at 3.11, for a loss of 1.7%

However...at 3 seconds after the close, 2,000 went through at 8.12.  At 25 seconds after the close, 12,800 shares went through at 8.12.  And, at 43 seconds after the close 202,200 shares went through at 3.12, and the close is 3.12, exactly on the trendline! 

That's okay.  I've had plenty of trades in which I was glad that I sold when a stock was set to close below a trendline, and I'm glad that the trendline held on a closing basis for the rest of you who are long.

The trendline comes in on Monday, August 22 at 3.1702.  Good luck to everyone long ELN!

[rpccpa]

Volume   LOW all week....

MKT maker walkdown post news conference....

not to worry...  WEEKLY VOLUME on pullback 25M vs 84M previous week... LONG Aug 7.50 and 10 call holders simply smoked.... NYSE mkt maker a real sniper shorting this down all day.

Ce'st la vie... a BUY OPP... Bot ELNIU SEP 7.50 calls at .90 today on 8.04 area pullback.

[rpccpa]

 OPTIONS CROOK ACTIVITY

Every month on the 3rd Friday, options expire and when the trend is basically neutral, volatility is usually very low. Since the brief spurt of volatility last week, the market has seen lower and lower daily ranges. This behavior is part of how the option writers "park the cars" to maximize their "take" of option time premium. Options are a wasting asset and it's no puzzle that blatant manipulation of stock prices every month brings joy to option writers' accounts.

[Melf Elf]

3.11, 3.12 ??
not 8.11 and 8.12?

Sorry, yes, 8.11 and 8.12.

[shawFund]

ELN price decline on Friday may be due to the news that Merck lost big on its case.

Merck stock price lost more than 7% after Jury finds Merck liable for Vioxx deth and awarded a widow $253 million.

[rpccpa]

VOLUME on Friday EQUALED THURSDAY (BOTH LOW VOLUME DAYS) and the MM Walked the price down  to 8.04.

Nuff said... If it is due to VIOXX... we have a selloff not a low volume walfkdown due to expiry...

Weekly volume outrageously LOW on Markdown....

We See... Next Week or Sept....