ELN

[shawFund]

About the trend:

  Looking at the weekly chart, it is slowly by consistently going up since June 27 (8 weeks).

  There are 2 down weeks and 6 up weeks. Last week is one of the two down weeks.
The closing prices on the down weeks are both at the support of the uptrend.

  For daily chart, it is in ascending trendline and has the break-out possibility.

  Hopefully the trend will continue and  this week will be an up week.

  By the way EYET ws bought at $20 per share (43% premium) Sunday.

[David Randolph]

Lol Melf Elf, great description of ELN's close. That was too close to call 

When this happens I hold for the next trading day, a cut for just 1 or 2 ticks isn't valid, just a slight change in the slope of the trenline and by magic there was no break 

OPTIONS CROOK ACTIVITY

Every month on the 3rd Friday, options expire and when the trend is basically neutral, volatility is usually very low. Since the brief spurt of volatility last week, the market has seen lower and lower daily ranges. This behavior is part of how the option writers "park the cars" to maximize their "take" of option time premium. Options are a wasting asset and it's no puzzle that blatant manipulation of stock prices every month brings joy to option writers' accounts.

Thanks for your post rpccpa, I believe this is a great explanation for the fall ELN experienced after that big gap up on Tysabri's news. The stock wasn't ready to advance because big manipulators weren't ready. Maybe now that options have expired they will allow the stock to advance, since they can't maintain prices artificially low for long.

The market will show us if your theory is valid. The stock closed exactly at the ascending trendline, so it should rebound from this level today. If it doesn't, if it goes down today, I'll take a small loss and move on to another speculative venture.

[Melf Elf]

Lol Melf Elf, great description of ELN's close. That was too close to call 

When this happens I hold for the next trading day, a cut for just 1 or 2 ticks isn't valid, just a slight change in the slope of the trenline and by magic there was no break 

GSS also has been  "too close to call" at the closes on Thursday and Friday, so I held that one.  My decision to sell ELN on Friday was predicated on the fact that it was "at the abyss" as you so aptly put it, threatening to break that trendline, and it's a gapper.  I didn't want to risk facing a gap down opening this morning if that trendline broke on Friday. 

Those are always judgment calls.  Sometimes they work out.  Sometimes they don't.  I hope this one works out for all of you who are still long it.  Good luck!

[Tirebldr]

How does one go about finding the earnings date on a company? TIA!!!

[Se7en]

How does one go about finding the earnings date on a company? TIA!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

[David Randolph]

The options theory of rpccpa doesn't look to be right on ELN, since the stock went down yesterday (I welcome it though  ).

I know it's boring to take another small loss on ELN, but that's what I'm going to do today.

The stock closed below the ascending trendline (which already had some downward adjusts, and when one starts lowering the lines to justify not taking a loss something's wrong with that trade).

I'm selling ELN at today's open.

[shawFund]

Even I don't like to sell it, but I still sold it at $8.32, patiently waiting for its bouncing back from double bottom.

From weekly chart, it is still in uptrend (from $6.5 eight weeks ago). But the up is very slow.

From 15 minutes chart, it is clear that $8.05 is its recent bottom and it holds well.

May be, what we need is some momentum stocks - big movers.

[bourkeco]

Well I can add to this. I have been in since 5.75 and it has been a wild ride but ELN has a great up side, they are more than a one trick pony and has a track record of fighting back from controversy. So I will stay in for the long haul. Don't get me wrong I have not fallen in love with this stock and would drop it in a minute if it starts to fall apart.

[shawFund]

Now what I said is true. I shouldn't have sold it. One of my mistakes.

Weekly chart is clearly showing the uptrend. The last 9 weeks (including this week), it is up slowly but consistently.

It is good to follow rules, never violate it. David uses ascending trendline to trade this stock. So when he sees the violation, he sold it.

But for me, I used different rules to have bought this stock: 
the ascending trendline as well as weekly uptrend.
I should also follow my rule on this stock. But I did not. I changed my rule.

Of course, not much money is involved in this trade,
and I also made small profit on this trade (2.5k shares for $100 gain).
The problem for me is not consistent.

A lot to learn.

My trading style is buying at pull-back for uptrend/break-out stocks.

David used both strategies:

sometime buying on pull-back like the second buy on VPHM and
sometime buying on break-out like BTUI he bought yesterday.

Need to learn more as to when to follow break-out and when to buy pull-back

amre.ob is a perfect example of buying on break-out (gained 1200% in 3 days)!!!

Good webe site and that is why it crashed yesterday.

[422fwhp]

I wish I would have found this thread earlier. 

Sorry you sold.  Been there many times.

I picked up more today @ $8.60 making my cost basis $8.44

[AustinPowers]

Keep an eye on this one tomorrow morning.  The volume surged in the last hour and it closed just about at the high of the day.  I notice this stock seems to tip its hand in the last hour of the day when there is pending news.  The same thing happened a few weeks ago when it gapped up over $1 on the T trials news. 

[rpccpa]

  Right on schedule.... taking into account the summer doldrums...

VOLUME today of 10,172,300 will allow us to test the $9.49 high of 8/9/2005... looking for 15M volume or better to go higher...

OPTIONS CROOK ACTIVITY

Every month on the 3rd Friday, options expire and when the trend is basically neutral, volatility is usually very low. Since the brief spurt of volatility last week, the market has seen lower and lower daily ranges. This behavior is part of how the option writers "park the cars" to maximize their "take" of option time premium. Options are a wasting asset and it's no puzzle that blatant manipulation of stock prices every month brings joy to option writers' accounts.

[bourkeco]

Yes you are right, having watched this stock for 8 months I have noticed that too. ELN is a hard stock to watch on a daily biases but it has a good upward trend overall.

Just the ranting of someone who has done good just on instinct and wants to learn the analyst side of how to trade.

[AustinPowers]

Spin masters at it again.  I guess the little run up yesterday made Morgan Stanley a bit uncomfortble.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Biogen Idec and Elan Corp. shares fell in premarket trade Friday, after Morgan Stanley said a review of the FDA's Adverse Event Reporting System reveals safety signals for the companies' jointly-developed Tysabri drug that extend beyond the three known cases of the wasting disease PML. "These data do not change our conclusion that Tysabri has a good chance of returning, but this drug has a number of warts and initial commercial impact may be limited," said analyst Steven Harr. Biogen was last quoted down 2% at $40.11 on Instinet, while Elan was off 3.4% at $8.45.

[bourkeco]

Yea it has been a few months of that type of manipulation from the big boys. All I care about that in the end goes up.