LVLT - Sector: Technology---Industry: Diversified Communication Services

[Melf Elf]

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Unless the Bulls can pull off a stampede into the close, today's gap down candle will leave the Bearish Island Reversal in the daily chart.

Here's what the Bearish Island Reversal looks like in the chart, for those not familar with the pattern.

The first Bearish Doji Star Hangman gapped up from the big white candle.  Tuesday was another Bearish Dojo Star Hangman.  Those both are warnings of possible change in trend when they show up after a big run

When LVLT was called gap down yesterday, that completely the "island."  The two Doji Star Hangmen are stranded on an island by the gap up, then the gap down, confirming that the two Bearish Doji Star Hangmen really were as bearish as they looked.

[basonista]

I can't do any better than Melf's analysis but I can say that LVLT has been on a nice 7 month bull run.  If the trend remains, this is a buy at the lower trendline when it makes it back down there.

[Melf Elf]

I can't do any better than Melf's analysis but I can say that LVLT has been on a nice 7 month bull run.  If the trend remains, this is a buy at the lower trendline when it makes it back down there.

Basonista,

You did MUCH better than Melf.  You followed up on LVLT, and I didn't.  Applause.

So many stocks...so little time, huh?  I wish that we had caught this last week, but coulda...shoulda...woulda...

1. In my last analysis, I missed the fact that the Bullish Falling Wedge (in green) morphed into an Ascending Triangle (blue), with the flat top of the pattern at 6.08 and 6.07.

TIP: When an Ascending Triangle breaks out, I create a line parallel to the ascending line, and anchor it to the the last high (6.07) of the flat 6.08...6.07 top.  That way, we can see if the Ascending Triangle morphs into a Bear Channel, which we can see that it did.  The "Abandoned Twins"  (circled in red) gapped above the top of the channel, then LVLT tanked on the Bearish Island Reversal.

We already knew that those "Abandoned Twins" didn't look good, though.

2. LVLT is Cramer's Speculative Pick of 2007.  It gapped up at 6.18 on January 8, after he picked it, on an Ascending Triangle breakout that put 7.22 IN PLAY, came back an filled the 5.95 gap, then ran higher and MADE the Bullish Falling Wedge target of 6.56.

3. After the January 12 and January 16 Bearish Doji Star Hangmen got put in, the next morning, Deutche Bank came out and "Cramerized" Cramer, by cutting LVLT to a SELL, leaving those "Abandoned Twins" on the chart!

Quite wicked of Deutsche Bank to "Cramerize" Cramer, but all's fair in Wall Street. 

 

4. Look where the selloff ended, on January 23.  Smack on the ascending line (red arrow).

5. LVLT recovered to 6.38, went into a little Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) and broke out it on Tuesday.  Look where the 6.05 low of that pattern, at Data Point #4 is: smack on that ascending line, for a second validation (second red arrow).

I think that LVLT is trying to say, "What are you, Melf, an idiot?  I've told you twice now.  YES, that trendline is support!   If I tell you that it isn't support, put your stop under there."

But, I don't understand why stocks abuse me in that manner.   

Target #1: Symmetrical Triangle (in purple) 6.62 is IN PLAY

Target #2: Ascending Triangle (in blue) 7.22 is IN PLAY

[Melf Elf]

Basonista,

LVLT currently is indicated BID 6.45...ASK 6.47, gap up from yesterdays' 6.36 close.

CURSES!!   

Coulda...shoulda...woulda...

[Ares]

can't wait for 25 cents above the open. that 25,000 blockat 6.48 must mean something good.
In at 6.49
Stop at 6.39

[basonista]

Basonista,

LVLT currently is indicated BID 6.45...ASK 6.47, gap up from yesterdays' 6.36 close.

CURSES!!   

Coulda...shoulda...woulda...

I see they are reporting earnings tomorrow.  I wonder if CSCO's good earnings yesterday are helping LVLT today.  More bandwidth and services being added (CSCO) could mean more VOIP services added (LVLT).

So, what do you think, Melf?  Looking good to buy or wait for a pullback to a support level?  I'm not sure I would want to buy before earnings tomorrow but if they are good, this will be a rocket for sure!

[Ares]

There are blocks on the red after I took a position.
I'm just going with momentum for the day.

[Melf Elf]

So, what do you think, Melf?  Looking good to buy or wait for a pullback to a support level?

Basonista,

No, I missed the entry down in the low 6.00s, at the top of the Ascending Triangle, and on those two ascending line validations.

I'm not sure I would want to buy before earnings tomorrow but if they are good, this will be a rocket for sure!

Yeah, technically, it looks very good here, so it could get a nice pop on earnings.  Too much risk for me, though, entering now, at 6.58.  

There are blocks on the red after I took a position.
I'm just going with momentum for the day.

Good luck, Eatinfolikefish! 

[Melf Elf]

Target #1: Symmetrical Triangle (in purple) 6.62 is IN PLAY

Target #2: Ascending Triangle (in blue) 7.22 is IN PLAY

6.62 just MADE.

CURSES!!   

I'm glad for Eatinfolikefish, though.   

[Ares]

A question for technical analysis and level 2 pros.
If there's a print of 25,000 on the green and soon after there's a print of 100,000 on the red  within a 15 min period - what should the color of the volume bar be?

[Ares]

Out at 6.64
Good luck long term holders.
The reason I got out is because price opened and closed below the 15 minute 8sma and the Hourly Chart looked overextended.
It had 4 green candles in a row.
May get in again on the hourly pullback or when 6.68 resistance is broken especially with green blocks.

[Ares]

In again at 6.69
Stop loss at 6.59
If it breaks 6.80, what's the next resistance?
It's amazing how these institutions move blocks without getting much noticed.
I'm still figuring out if their selling at the ask or at the bid.
If anyone has, please let me know.

[Ares]

Out at 6.74
Good luck guys.

[Quasi]

Out at 6.74
Good luck guys.

In again at 6.69....If it breaks 6.80, what's the next resistance?
It's amazing how these institutions move blocks without getting much noticed.
I'm still figuring out if their selling at the ask or at the bid.
If anyone has, please let me know.

Looking good Eatinfolikefish, hope the commission slippage isn't killing you on some of these trades for only a few cents.  Here in Canada I'm still paying $25 per trade so it would kill me, but in month or so it will drop to $10 so that will help.

As far as the institutions moving big blocks, they don't do it like you and I on the open market.  They do it thru brokers who specialize in block trades, the orders are not placed on the open market like you and I, the deal is set up in advance in the back room.  Say somebody wants to buy or sell they then find someone else to take the other side of the trade and then report it to the exchange, thus the first time you see it print on the tape its already a done deal.

A question for technical analysis and level 2 pros.
If there's a print of 25,000 on the green and soon after there's a print of 100,000 on the red  within a 15 min period - what should the color of the volume bar be?

All depends what time period you're looking at on the chart, its just like price candles, if the close for that 15min period is lower than the close for the last 15 min period the volume bar will be red.  Doesn't matter what happened inside the 15 min period.  IE;  100 share trade at $1, then somebody dumps 1M shares and drives the price to 50cents, then some body buys 100 shares at $1.01, the price is up for the period so the volume bar will be green, along with the price candle (although it will have a long lower tail).  Now if you expand the chart to say a 1 min period you would see that 1M shares as a red volume bar.  I often do this when I see something odd on the chart.

With respect to resistance, Melf is the expert but I pulled up a weekly chart, as shown below, sorry its a big chart so you're gonna have to scroll or pop it up separately to see the whole thing.  Had to go back a ways, as shown on the chart we're approaching the old resistance band now, but its fairly old, thus carries less weight, then its up to the Naz bubble highs after that.  So could be a little bumpy here but after $8 its looking alot better.

I'm not in this one yet, watching and looking very interesting.

Happy trading / investing
Quasi

[Ares]

Thanks for your reply Quasi,
I'm also in Canada and I use Trade Freedom.
They charge starting from $9.95.
http://www.tradefreedom.com/en/promos/splash_1.asp?src=overture
I started a trading log under personal logs (Daytrading with consensus)
Hope to see you there.