NTRI

[snowcat]

The chart on this is like a right angle.  I have owned it since 11 and does nothing but go up bit by bit. NTRI got a good write-up in the Cabot top 10 market letter:
Cabot Top Ten Report
--------------------
Editor's Choice: NutriSystem (NTRI) Price: 17

Why The Strength?

NutriSystem is no newbie to the health food market - it was founded
33 years ago, and has enjoyed sporadic growth ever since. But today
NutriSystem is a true growth company, thanks partly to the
ever-growing desire of Americans (especially aging Baby Boomers) to
stay fit and thin, and partly due to the huge expansion in this
firm's marketing efforts. The first quarter witnessed a massive sales
and earnings increase, as NutriSystem's direct-to-consumer channel
revenues more than tripled, thanks to 64,000 new customers ordering
the firm's products. (The company also sells its health food packages
via QVC and some independent retailers.) Even better was news that
cost per customer acquisition actually declined, a clear sign this
new marketing program is working. Earnings are due out next
Wednesday, July 27, with investors expecting another huge sales gain
and earnings of $0.09 a share.


Technical Analysis

You won't find a stock or RP line much stronger than NTRI. The stock
is up 17-fold from last August! Of course, at that time, the market
was in the dumps, and the firm appeared to have a stagnant future.
Today, the firm's future is bright and the market is healthy. Lately,
NTRI has been riding upward along its 25-day moving average, which is
currently around 14 1/2. The buyers are clearly in control, but this
lower-priced stock can knock you out if you buy wrong. So, if you
bought some on our previous recommendations, hold on tight. New
buyers should try to grab shares on at least a minor pullback.

Cabot Suggested Buy Range: 14 1/2 - 16

[snowcat]

up $4 in ah.  Marketing like crazy - qvc, newspapers, etc.
Lots of heavy people who need their prpared meals.

I mentioned this last week if it seems familiar.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NTRI&t=1y

[snowcat]

Wow.  The Cabot analysis was right on the money!  Gotta start paying more attention to him.  His newsletter is only like $100.  Maybe I should make an investment in that for the board.

[ramlau]

Some of you probably remember the NSI days when it was still a penny stock. It's actually not that long ago... I'd have been a rich man if I had some patience with it. Good luck to those who have faith in this rocket.   

Ram

[metro]

NTRI has been a great stock this year from under 5 to over 24. On the log chart is is now at the bottom of the trading channel. It may break down or move back up but at a point to watch for a trade one way or the other.

[metro]

It keeps moving but slowly and was up about $3 from buy and did break above small trend today for a while

[metro]

Well it continues and now up $6.40 - its next break out is the horizontal one at $24.30

This is one of the strongest stocks this year on the market - the kind we like

[metro]

Its been a great one now up over $14 since trend line and more upgrades

08:30     NTRI Nutrisystem tgt upped to $38 from $28 at Kaufman following upside Q3 guidance (26.81 )

[Melf Elf]

Its been a great one now up over $14 since trend line and more upgrades

08:30     NTRI Nutrisystem tgt upped to $38 from $28 at Kaufman following upside Q3 guidance (26.81 )

Great pick, Metro!  You posted this one right at the bounce off the trendline on August 17.. Applause.  It's up almost $5 in the pre-market.

[Terliso]

DIET's rival NTRI... 1st quarter profit surged nearly SEVENFOLD

NTRI up over 26% after-hours...this will be huge gap up tomorrow morning

NutriSystem 1Q Profit Soars
Monday April 24, 5:01 pm ET 
NutriSystem 1st-Quarter Profit Surges, Shares Up Nearly 23 Percent After-Hours


HORSHAM, Pa. (AP) -- NutriSystem Inc., a provider of weight management and fitness products and services, said Monday its first-quarter profit surged nearly sevenfold, easily flying past Wall Street estimates.
ADVERTISEMENT


The company also issued second-quarter guidance which topped consensus forecasts.

NutriSystem, whose stock has climbed 37 percent since the beginning of the year, earned $22.3 million, or 60 cents per share, compared with $3.2 million, or 10 cents per share, during the same period a year ago. The most recent quarter's results included stock options expenses of 3 cents per share.

Sales surged to $146.8 million from last year's $37.4 million.

Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of 40 cents per share on sales of $125.1 million, according to a poll by Thomson Financial.

Amid high expectations for a company whose stock began 2005 at $2.85 and ended it at $36.02, investors were impressed with the quarter's results, and shares added $11.54, or about 23 percent, to $62.24 in after-hours electronic trading.

The stock closed at $50.70 on the Nasdaq, up 20 cents.

"Our operating profit and earnings per diluted share for the first quarter exceeded our full year 2005 results," said Michael J. Hagan, chairman and chief executive, in a statement.

For the second quarter, the company said it sees earnings between 44 cents and 46 cents per share, or, excluding stock options costs, between 47 cents and 49 cents a share, on sales between $118 million and $122 million.

Analysts are expecting significantly lower earnings of 35 cents per share on sales of $105 million.

For the full year, NutriSystem said it expects earnings between $1.80 and $1.90, or between $1.90 and $2 without stock options costs, on sales between $490 million and $510 million.

Wall Street has pegged the company to earn $1.38 per share, including stock options expenses of 5 to 7 cents, on sales of $425 million.

"We believe our strategy for continued growth is on track," Hagan said.

[tugsinav]

NTRI always come back to fill the gap and then run...will see if it happens again this time.

[snowcat]

You gotta be kitten.  People could just eat less and NOT pay for a company to give them less food.  I  heard they used people from Biafra in their TV ads!

NTRI is amazing, I am astonished it is doing so well,  but..........................

MED is the place to be - great numbers and a chart to die for!  Die of starvation, that is.  People on a MED diet look great!  I can tell those people when I see them on Jones Beach.

NTRI people always have a donut in their hand.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MED

[vic666]

Hello folks,

How is everybody? Tough market, tough times in general for going long on many stocks and most sectors.

For the first time ever, I've shorted a stock today - NTRI @ $60.35.  Here's a chart and here are some point to suport why I did what I did:

1.) Chart recently fell below recent low of $61.61 around May 25

2.) Nice rally from $59.79, but the very next day, 20 MA proved to be resistance and it fell lower, coming to today's action...where the low formed towards the close of the day was $59.85 (see intraday chart)

3.) Broke and closed below 50 MA of $61.35 today

4.) Indicators (RSI, stochastics, MACD) are all pointing down

5.) Gap from April 24 of around $51.00 may be filled - so this is my first target.

6.) Of course, I think confirmation of a good short opportunity will be known if we break recent low from 3 days back of $59.79

Thoughts?? 

[Melf Elf]

Vic,

In mid-March, NTRI had a beautiful H&S Top in place.  All it needed to do was to take out the neckline to the downside.

Instead, it took out the 44.80 high of the Right Shoulder, just like ESLR did when I shorted it.  I covered my short for loss, fearing exactly what ended up happening with NTRI.

NTRI not only took out the 44.80 high of the Right Shoulder, it also took out the 50.00 high of the Head, which technically indicated that you ADD the H&S Top measurement to 50.00 to derive the UPSIDE target (Math is on the chart).

NTRI gapped up beyond the 65.50 target, and went to 76.33.  Horrible short squeeze for anyone who didn't cover the takeout of the 44.80 Right Shoulder, or who didn't cover the takeout of the 50.00 Head.

Just thought I'd mention that as an illustration of why I covered the takeout of the Right Shoulder in the ESLR, which I discussed yesterday in that folder.  In the case of ESLR, the upside takeout was a Bull Trap, and it went down to the H&S Top target, but in the case of NTRI, it was a nasty short squeeze.

Okay, on to your short...

5.) Gap from April 24 of around $51.00 may be filled - so this is my first target.

Very reasonable.

6.) Of course, I think confirmation of a good short opportunity will be known if we break recent low from 3 days back of $59.79

Yeah, you sure want to see that get taken down.

Thoughts?? 

1. Watch the bottom rail of the Bull Flag.  The slopes to the top and bottom rails nearly are identical:

a. The slope of the top rail is exactly -0.31
b. The slope of the bottom rail is -0.31429

For today, June 13, the bottom rail comes in at 57.201.  Just keep subtracting 0.31429 for each trading session.  NTRI could "walk down the rail" without breaking it.  You want to see that get broken, naturally, since you're short.

2. Despite the recent selloff in NTRI and the pounding that the general market has taken over the past month, NTRI still is in a bullish trend, as you know, and this pattern looks like a Bull Flag continuation pattern. 

Until it doesn't.   

Sentiment is lousy, and understandably so, but at some point the market will rally.  Broken stocks likely only will rally to former support and find resistance there.  But, NTRI isn't a broken stock, so it could have a good rally.  Strong stocks tend to do better than ones that already are broken.

3. MACD in NTRI crossed below its signal line on May 12, which is when just about everything went to hell in the general market.

   

MACD now is approaching its zero line.  In strong stocks like NTRI, after a selloff, MACD often will turn higher at or near zero, so watch for that as NTRI approaches the bottom rail of this Bull Flag.

Good luck, Vic!

[vic666]

that was an excellent analysis, Melf...am at work..so cannot respond in detail...but will do so later.

Covered my short a few minutes back at $58.10 this was moving in tandem with the NASDAQ...and i already had a 3.7% gain...so I took it.

applaud to melf elf!