ADPT

[cmshop]

David, on August 11 when you decided to jump back to BCON, one of the reasons was "- This deep move was made with decreasing volume...".
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1994.msg15442#msg15442
Why "decreasing volume" became a positive factor for postive divergency here? Should "decreasing volume" mean lack of interests and therefore bearish? Or should it mean that not many people wanted to sell in this case? It is kind of confusing when you make a statement that "price down and volume up" generally means positive divergency and then when we apply this statement to different cases.

[David Randolph]

This title comes up because I once owned ADPT thinking it would rebound:

ADPT is in need of a rebound

The stock did rebound but as I recall I didn't make any profit from it. It is always hard to pick up a bottom and stay with the position. It is much better and easy to buy when there is a new bullish trend like it is happening now with ADPT, as you can see on the short term chart below.

Also, the fundamentals seem to have turned the corner:

Adaptec Provides Preliminary Operating Results for Second Quarter FY 2006 - Strength in Core Business Improves Revenue and Gross Margin

I'll buy ADPT at today's open for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

[Ramsburg]

Bought ADPT @ $3.96 for the 3Stocks Portfolio.

[David Randolph]

ADPT is a turnaround play. As you can check on the all history chart below, the stock is near its all time lows set in the early nineties.

On Thursday the company said results are going to beat expectations:

- Revenue for the quarter ended in September 30th is going to be $115M instead of the $106M that were previously expected.
- Gross margin is now expected to come in at 32 to 34%, instead of 27 to 28%.

Costs are going to be lower than expected too:

- «Non-GAAP operating expenses for the Company's combined operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 are expected to be in the range of $39 to $41 million compared with projected non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $43 to $44 million.»

And this leaves us with earnings per share coming in higher than expected:

«Non-GAAP loss per share for the Company's combined operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 is expected to be in the range of ($0.01) to ($0.03), compared with projected non-GAAP loss per share of between ($0.12) and ($0.13).»

The company is divesting from some businesses that were not producing enough revenues and profits, which seems to be a good move. Official results will be presented on November 3, 2005.

Technically ADPT is breaking out and starting a new bullish trend. I will continue holding the stock for the foreseeable future.

[David Randolph]

ADPT had a minor correction intraday but then it came back to close near the highs of the session. I see this as a short term positive. There are no motives to sell now, I'll continue holding ADPT.

Results will be presented at November the 3rd.

[David Randolph]

ADPT: HOLD

[David Randolph]

We've had a sell off yesterday on ADPT, in tandem with the general market. There was no technical damage and no new fundamental developments. Therefore I'll continue holding ADPT.

[David Randolph]

There was nothing new on ADPT, I'll continue to hold. Earnings will be out on Thursday.

[David Randolph]

Again, nothing new on ADPT, everybody seems to be waiting for that conference call on Thursday, that I think will bring good news to the PPS.

I'll continue holding ADPT.

[David Randolph]

Everybody is waiting and sleeping on ADPT. The conference call will be on Thursday. We already know earnings are going to be higher than estimates, what we want to hear from the company is guidance about the future.

ADPT is a turnaround play and I believe management will say good things about the future.

I'll continue sleeping with ADPT.

[David Randolph]

ADPT will talk today: «MILPITAS, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 10/27/05 -- Adaptec, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADPT), a leader in trusted storage solutions, will host a live teleconference and webcast November 3, 2005, at 1:45 p.m. Pacific Time to discuss the company's financial results for the second quarter 2006.»

I think the stock will react positively to this. I will hold it through today's session, but I'll put a stop loss at my entry point, I don't want to let a profit turn into a loss because of some unexpected event.

So, HOLD ADPT, but with a stop order placed at $3.96.

[David Randolph]

Oh well, I was stopped out on ADPT for a draw at $3.96. It looks like the news coming out of the conference call were not inspiring for investors.

More money available for better stocks.

[soxguy]

hi, is anyone still in? i am, and it did well since david sold. i will hold. we shall see

[robt]

Yeah, I'm in as well, with 13% gains (5% just today).

A lot of this is takeover speculation, so it's very likely to deflate...but takeover hopes don't always peter out quickly.

Longer term, I think the company has bright prospects, but I'm not likely to hold that long.  Might have sold at today's high (4.73) if I'd been watching the tape.

As you say, we'll see.

[robt]

Sold today @ 4.48