BCON - Sector: Utilities --- Industry: Electric Utilities

[Melf Elf]

hope this turns around for you today melf elf.

Thanks, maxi!  BCON sure turned around in the final two minutes. 

At 3:58PM BCON shot up from 1.90 to 2.08 on 5,800 shares, and closed that bar at 1.91
At 3:59PM BCON shot up from 1.89 to 2.10 on 5,933 shares, and closed the day at 2.10.

Very strange.     

That doesn't look like enough volume to be any index rebalancing, if that's what it was, but who knows?  At any rate, today's low was 1.89, so I'm still long. 

[rickjust]

hi,
i was watching the close ...what was up with that. how does that happen? anyone know?
maxi

[Melf Elf]

hi,
i was watching the close ...what was up with that. how does that happen? anyone know?
maxi

maxi,

I spoke with two Scottrade brokers after the close.  The first one couldn't tell me anything about any trades over 2.00 in the final two minutes.  The second one told me that there was a trade of 500 shares at 2.08 at 3:58PM.  That was the high of that bar, then the 3:58PM 1-minute bar closed at 1.91.

I would view that trade at 2.08 as a "bad tick," but what was up with the tick and close at 2.10 in the final minute?  Neither broker with whom I spoke showed any trades at 2.10.

2.10, however, is the official close.     

And, interestingly, the top of the Symmetrical Triangle came in yestereday at 2.10144, so chart-wise, that left us champing at the bit for an upside breakout.

I expect the 2.10 to get taken down at the open on Monday, and expect to see the stock open somewhere near 1.90, where it was trading before the strange move at the close.  We'll see.

My plan over the weekend is to fantasize about a breakaway gap to the upside on Monday morning.   

[Melf Elf]

Strategy:

I'm long from 1.83 on December 2.  This week's low is 1.86.  If we get a print of 1.85, I'll sell for a 1% profit.  While I didn't want the problem of chasing the stock higher, that's what I will end up doing if I'm stopped out at 1.85, then BCON breaks out to the upside.  I'd buy a print of 2.16, a penny above this week's high.

Sold BCON at 1.85.  Gain: 1%. 

[joozt]

hi, i sold also today 

[patriotmp]

  well i am still in...the 200ma is 1.80 lets see if it goes down on the open tomorrow touches that and gets a nice bounce off of it... but if it doesn't and breaks that i guess just have to take the loss...

[Melf Elf]

  well i am still in...the 200ma is 1.80 lets see if it goes down on the open tomorrow touches that and gets a nice bounce off of it... but if it doesn't and breaks that i guess just have to take the loss...

patriotmp,

The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in today a hair above 1.78.  Good luck.  I hope you make some $$$ on it.

hi, i sold also today

Thanks for the feedback, joozt.

[KCScott]

Melf,

Is it just me or does BCON look like a wolf wave waiting to happen?

If it breaks sharply below that trendline, the symentry looks right.

[thai626]

Melf,

Is it just me or does BCON look like a wolf wave waiting to happen?

If it breaks sharply below that trendline, the symentry looks right.

That isn't a wolfewave.............wolfewaves looks like a descending wedge but not necessarily that steep.  BCON is basically a descending triangle.  I hope this time it will breakout of the descending triangle.

Hmm.......I think I will try to buy tomorrow at the support line.  I think this is a good risk/reward trade overall.  Good luck everyone!

[Melf Elf]

[

Melf,

Is it just me or does BCON look like a wolf wave waiting to happen?

If it breaks sharply below that trendline, the symentry looks right.

Scott.

I basically agree with thai's answer (applauded).

My understanding of Wolfe Waves (I'm learning, like everyone else) is that they should have a "channeling" aspect to them.  Higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows. 

The channel doesn't have to be parallel.  It can be a Rising Wedge, or a Falling Wedge (Descending Triangle, as thai said), but it can't be a Symmetical Triangle (Lower Highs and Higher Lows), which is what we've got with BCON.

That said, the technicals have weakened here.  BCON needs to get going to the upside.  Here's the 13/21 Relative Strength (RSI) chart:

[Melf Elf]

That said, the technicals have weakened here.  BCON needs to get going to the upside.  Here's the 13/21 Relative Strength (RSI) chart:

BCON has printed 1.78, at the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, on those weak technicals.  It needs a good bounce higher, or MACD will soon cross below its signal line after already having turned down from just below zero.  That usually isn't a good sign.

[Melf Elf]

BCON has printed 1.78, at the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, on those weak technicals.
 

1.78 was the low of the day.

...the 200ma is 1.80 lets see if it goes down on the open tomorrow touches that and gets a nice bounce off of it...

And, the close was patriotmp's 1.80.

The way that BCON is hitting the top and bottom of this Symmetrical Triangle and the 200DMA so exactly, you would think that a lot of TA folks are playing it.   

BCON needed to bounce off the 1.78-1.80 on Friday, as patriotmp suggested, and do something more than close near the low of the day.  Time is running out on it, as far as the technicals are concerned.

MACD has done exactly what I didn't want to see...it ticked down from below the zero line, and then ticked down below its signal line (see next chart).  That usually isn't a good sign.

BCON really needs to do something here, like put in a Bullish Engulfing Pattern, get that MACD kicking higher, and then keep going higher.

[Melf Elf]

MACD chart:

[ScottishTrader]

BCON could still be a good play here - have been watching your analysis on it Melf Elf - low risk unless it crashes today, and given its previous movement, it could easily jump up to 2.05 very quickly.  But you are right, it needs to make a move and break out of the symmetrical triangle, as it is running out of room.

I may take a position at the open forr a quick christmas move.

[Melf Elf]

BCON could still be a good play here - have been watching your analysis on it Melf Elf - low risk unless it crashes today, and given its previous movement, it could easily jump up to 2.05 very quickly. 

It sure could, Scotsman!

I may take a position at the open forr a quick christmas move.

I was tempted to buy yesterday's 1.80 close after the successful test and validation of the bottom of the Syjmmetrical Triangle on the print of 1.78, but the weakening technicals kept me out.  I'd rather "pay up" if BCON can show some muscle.

Prior to buying BCON at 1.83 on December 2, I listed about ten things that I liked about the chart and the technicals.  Now, there are a number of things that I don't like, including:

1. "Really good winning trades work out from the beginning, and don't give you a problem."

I had a nice entry into the stock.  During the trade, I had 17% paper gain when BCON rallied to 2.15.  It "came back in my face," and I had the problem of turning a winning trade into a loser.  That shouldn't happen.  If my entry was that good, players shouldn't be able to buy it three weeks later for the same price that I paid, or less. 

While BCON still could break out to the upside, I didn't like that.

2. I didn't like the "bogus" close of 2.10 on December 16.  While Reuters still shows 2.10 as the close, Scottrade has taken it down completely.  Those "trades" at 2.08 and 2.10 don't show up now on the chart at all.

3. 13/21 RSI is very weak.

4. MACD has given the double caution: "ticked down from below zero...ticked down below its signal line."

5. In the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart (below), we can see that the Kumo (cloud) has been daunting for the stock.

6. Also in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, the faster Tenkan-Sen (thick green line) got above the slower Kijun-Sen (thick red line), but now has ticked back down below it.

Those act like an MACD, only they're price-related.  The Tenkan-Sen is 8 days; the Kijun Sen is the slower 22 days.

7. The trend coming into this Symmetrical Triangle that we've been watching was down.  "Symmetrical Triangles usually resolve in the direction of the trend, unless it's a bottom."

Duh-h...well, there's the rub!  Which one is it?    

The technicals looked good when I entered in early December, but with those weakening, my concern when I decided to sell was that this might resolve in the direction of the preceding trend.  Down.

Just some T2T talk, but for those reasons, I decided to wait and let the stock tell me what it wants to do.  I'd at least want to see it take out Thurday's high of 1.87, for starters.

BCON currently is BID 1.84...ASK 1.85.  The high on the day so far is 1.85.

Good luck if you traded it, Scotsman, and good luck to thai626 if he took the trade.  It is a low risk/reward (barring a gap down...but, that's always a risk).  Don't blame you guys at all for wanting it.