BCON - Sector: Utilities --- Industry: Electric Utilities

[Ramsburg]

Update:
A little correction, but BCON is still trading inside the body of the last big white candle that triggered our signal.
The main support is now at 1.20 (ascending line), so our stop @ 1.18 looks like the right spot, we'll just wait for developments on this position, while the main technical outlook is great.

Trading Plan:
Hold BCON with a stop @ $1.18

[Melf Elf]

Bought BCON at 1.36 on the Bull Channel breakout.  1.36 also is the buy pivot, a penny above Friday's high of 1.35.  Stop: 1.25, a penny below the low of the channel.  Risk: a loss of 8%.

EDIT: Stop is 1.26, a penny below the 1.27 low of the channel.  Risk is a loss of 7.4%.

[Melf Elf]

Bought BCON at 1.36 on the Bull Channel breakout. 

BCON has moved up nicely this morning off the Bull Channel Breakout.  It not only has taken out last week's high of 1.44, in doing so, it also has broken out above the channel off the January high (blue lines).

The bottom of Kumo (Cloud) is 1.2575.

The 8-day Tenken-sen (green line), at 1.275 is bullishly postioned above the 22-day Kinjun-sen, at 1.26, so that's "in gear," and BCON currently is well above the Kumo (Cloud), which is good.

We'd like to see a close of 1.45, which would be above last week's high, and also would be a close above the channel.

BCON currently is BID 1.43...ASK 1.44, so it's poised right there, champing at the bit for the channel breakout.

[Melf Elf]

We'd like to see a close of 1.45, which would be above last week's high, and also would be a close above the channel.

I'm not certain if the close was 1.44, or 1.41.  A block of about 7,800 shares went off at 1.44, right at the close, but about a minute later, 100 shares went through at 1.41.  I'll have to wait until I download my data tomorrow morning.

Regardless, we didn't have to have the 1.45 today, and we closed well above the Kumo (Cloud), which is good.  But, we need a breakout on a closing basis.

Volume was good today, and watching the time and sales sheet on occasion, it looked like more buying than selling.

If we rally, we have to watch for the possibility of false breakout that fails at the top of the "possible" Bear Flag on the chart below.  It comes in tomorrow, August 1, at 1.5442.  If we should rally to that level, I'll sell a small portion of my position (10-25%) into it, to defend against the Bear Flag failure possibility.

A target of 1.60 is IN PLAY from the Bullish Channel breakout that I posted early this morning.  If we should rally to that level, I'll sell some more.  "Take profits when targets get MADE."

If we get to 1.60-ish, I'd like to see a pullback for a Right Shoulder of a possible Bullish Inverse H&S, or a Bullish Ascending Triangle.  Something like that.

The last high on June 5 was 1.61, so that would set up a nice neckline, or a nice flat top for a Bullish Ascending Triangle, but all of that is getting ahead of ourselves (and wishful thinking).

 

First order of business: we need a close above the channel (pattern in blue).

This chart doesn't reflect today's trading.

Good luck to those of you long. 

Curses to those of you short. 

Just kidding. 

[setravis]

Breaking out from this symmetrical triangle
13-day ema about to crossover the 50-day ema

Volume: 1,976,770
Avg Vol (3m): 923,372

Technicals
Close Above the 50-day EMA

Last Price Quote is:
9.64%above 13-day EMA
7.48%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 21 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Aug 11

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $77.10 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[Ramsburg]

Glad to see you on the same boat Melf and thanks for your interesting insights

Update:
Nice day for BCON, a good volume boost with a nice 6.86% white candle, making a new short term high and the highest close since it started to rebound in June.
Apparently the consolidation period is over, and a new highest low was made again, this time at $1.27, which corroborates our short term expectations.
August is on, and everything looks like another «traditional» summer month for BCON

Trading Plan:
Hold BCON with a stop @ $1.18

Regards,

[Melf Elf]

If we rally, we have to watch for the possibility of false breakout that fails at the top of the "possible" Bear Flag on the chart below.  It comes in tomorrow, August 1, at 1.5442.  If we should rally to that level, I'll sell a small portion of my position (10-25%) into it, to defend against the Bear Flag failure possibility.

Sold 10% of my position at 1.53 on the print of 1.54.  Gain: 12.5%
Holding 90% long from 1.36 entry.

Thank you, Frederick. 

[Ramsburg]

Nice timing, on that sell near the hod, Melf

Update:
Another nice day for BCON, with increasing volume and new short term highs despite the Nasdaq behaviour today. BCON was not able to close near the highs of the day, but that's understandable with such pessimism on the broad market.

The short term pattern has been establishing new higher highs and higher lows, so its time to move our stop up to 1.26 and decrease our risk on this position. BCON buying signal has been triggered now, it may swing down or slowly consolidate before new highs but never below the last relative low (1.27).
The next upside barriers are located at 1.55 (today's high), 1.57 (ema-200) and 1.61 (June's high), lets wait.

Trading Plan:
Hold BCON with a stop @ $1.26

Regards,

[Melf Elf]

Nice timing, on that sell near the hod, Melf

Thanks, Frederick. 

The high of the day, 1.54, was made shortly after the open, and it was smack on the top of the Bear Flag, which was at 1.5442, then the stock eased off for the remainder of the day. 

That suggests to me that the momo players were more than willing to buy the channel breakout (pattern in blue), but that they also were aware of the Bear Flag possibility (pattern in red), and that there was no conviction at all to knock out the top of the Bear Flag (1.54).  They took a quick profit.   

Update:
Another nice day for BCON, with increasing volume and new short term highs despite the Nasdaq behaviour today. BCON was not able to close near the highs of the day, but that's understandable with such pessimism on the broad market.

Yes, volume was more than double 100 day average volume, which was very nice to see on the channel breakout, and I liked the fact that the entire candle yesterday was above the channel breakout. 

I would like to have seen BCON close nearer the high of the day, but it at least held onto about 50% of the day's gains.  That's fine, especially given the rotten day in the market, as you pointed out.

The short term pattern has been establishing new higher highs and higher lows, so its time to move our stop up to 1.26 and decrease our risk on this position.

Seems like a good idea.  "Higher highs and higher lows" aren't bullish if this ends of being another Bear Flag, and with the NAZ 100 doing a back flip yesterday off the NDX 1515-1511 broken neckline of the year-long H&S top, I think that a more defensive posture is warranted. 

BCON buying signal has been triggered now, it may swing down or slowly consolidate before new highs but never below the last relative low (1.27).

Right.  BCON committed to the channel breakout, and I really don't want to see 1.27 again.



In fact, I probably won't sit for a break back below the top of the channel, which comes in today at 1.4097.  If BCON is trading down there at the end of the day today on a Bearish Engulfing candle, especially if it's printing 1.41...1.40...1.39...1.38....I likely will sell and take a small profit. 

Again, my strategy is being strongly influenced by the lousy market.

The next upside barriers are located at 1.55 (today's high), 1.57 (ema-200) and 1.61 (June's high), lets wait.

Trading Plan:
Hold BCON with a stop @ $1.26

Yes, the top of the Bear Flag for today comes in at 1.5513.

Good luck to everybody.  Thanks for your nice analysis and hard work, Frederick.  Applause.

[Melf Elf]

Yes, the top of the Bear Flag for today comes in at 1.5513.

BCON opened with 25,240 shares at 1.55, smack on the top of the Bear Flag again.  It's pulling back toward the gap, which is fine, but with that kind of opening, I definitely will sell if the bulls act wimpy, and we reverse to the downside this afternoon.

[Ramsburg]

Thanks again Melf ! it's really nice to have your daily comments on BCON

Update:
Interesting news:
California Energy Commission Begins Final-Stage Field Trial Testing of Beacon Power Flywheel Demonstration System

BCON had a nice advance again, establishing a new relative high at $1.57, volume was high but not as the day before. This candle suggests indecision which is normal taking in consideration the $1.61 resistance and the ema-50 (the high of the day), its possible to watch a small consolidation here, but the 1.40/1.45 should make a good support if that happens.
We'll continue to hold this position.

Trading Plan:
Hold BCON with a stop @ $1.26

Regards,

[Melf Elf]

BCON had a nice advance again, establishing a new relative high at $1.57, volume was high but not as the day before. This candle suggests indecision which is normal taking in consideration the $1.61 resistance and the ema-50 (the high of the day), its possible to watch a small consolidation here, but the 1.40/1.45 should make a good support if that happens.

Thanks, Frederick!

That's how I see it, too.  I'm probably going to regret not selling the rest of my postion at 1.53 yesterday afternoon since yesterday's candle is a Bearish Doji-Star Hangman (if the low is taken out), smack on the top of the Bear Flag (we need a "Worry Face" on the toolbar). 

We gapped up yesterday from 1.48, but I consider that gap to be filled at yesterday's print low of 1.49.  We might go back and print the 1.48, but it then becomes a question of how low do we go. 

I hate risking a 12½% gain if we're going all the way back to 1.40-ish for a re-test of the channel breakout (blue line).

I'm in at 1.36, so that doesn't give me much wiggle room.   

We'll see how it opens, and how it goes today.  At the moment, I'm thinking that I'll sell if we take out 1.49, yesterday's low.  That would indicate some confirmation of the Bearish Doji Star Hangman at the top of the Bearish Flag, and that the chance is good that we're going lower, at least short-term.

[Melf Elf]

We'll see how it opens, and how it goes today.  At the moment, I'm thinking that I'll sell if we take out 1.49, yesterday's low.  That would indicate some confirmation of the Bearish Doji Star Hangman at the top of the Bearish Flag, and that the chance is good that we're going lower, at least short-term.

Sold remaining 90% of my BCON at 1.48.  Gain: 8.8%.  Gain on the trade: 9.2%.  Thank you, Fredercik!  Applause.

[JKN]

I tried to sell half yesterday at 1.56 but never filled.  Sold all today at 1.50 for a nice gain of 10%.  In at 1.35.

Thanks Frederick !...and Melf !

[Melf Elf]

Repost from The Stock Picking Board: (Thank you, Frederick, for bringing BCON to my attention again)

It's been more than two months since I gave the 3SOF team, Frederick, "G," and Michael a "group applause," so I'm giving them another one now, not only because I had a nice gain of 9.2% today on BCON (posted on the Members Board), on Frederick's recommendation, but because it's long overdue.

I had a personal message today from a member who questioned why I applauded the 48% gain in CHDT, when the stock had a gain of over 100%, which could have been taken.

Fair enough question, and I applauded the person who asked it, who is frustrated with the 3SOF performance since David left.

We're ALL frustrated with this market!

But, in fairness to the current 3SOF team, let's recognize that the NASDAQ topped out about six days after David was "incorrectly" short the QQQQ.

David drew a lot of criticism for his call, but look at your charts...he only was a few days early!

It's easy to criticize.

"Coulda...shoulda...woulda..."

Yes, we "coulda" had a gain in some of the 3SOF picks in excess of 100%, but the team is up against performance numbers.  Sometimes, they try to hit a Grand Slam out of the park, and it fails.  But, a number of those trades still were gains, yet some 3SOF members "hung on," and have losses.

GV probably is the best example of that.  It still was a gain in the 3SOF portfolio, despite what profit the 3SOF didn't take.

Another 3SOF sent me a personal message today, admitting exactly that, and admitting that it was his (her?) responsibilty, to have taken the big profits.  I forgot to applaud that, but I will.

Bottom line....let's not be whiners, like we see on so many internet boards.  Very few fund managers have a gain on the year, at this point, so let's applaud the fact that the 3SOF team is "hanging in there," and let's applaud their hard work.

To applaud, hit the applause button under the person's name on their post.  You need to have posted 50 messages to applaud.

And, PLEASE don't send me personal messages.  I apologize for asking that, but as much as I would like to respond, it's impossible, given my time constraints with trying to answer my own questions about the market.

I will make my best effort to participate in folders on an "as can" basis.  Thanks in advance for your consideration.

Best of luck to everybody, and let's try to band together, and support each other.  What a sad, sad, loss, if 3SOF folded.