GOLD

[stout7735]

If gold goes below $700 an ounce, that will be the last great buying opportunity of the decade...       

[setravis]

Gold prices fall on stronger dollar, crude drop
Friday August 29, 2008
Gold prices slide after dollar rises against euro, crude falls


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices dipped Friday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and a small pullback in crude oil prices.
A stronger dollar often leads investors to sell commodities such as precious metals, which are attractive inflation hedges because they're known for holding their value. Lower oil prices also encourage selling of hard assets.

Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $835.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling to $834.

[setravis]

Gold falls as doller gains ground on euro.......

Gold prices fell slightly Friday as a stronger dollar prompted selling from investors seeking commodities as an inflation hedge.


The 15-nation euro bought $1.4671, down from $1.4702 late Thursday in New York. A stronger dollar typically encourages investors to shed hard assets like gold, which is viewed as a safe-haven investment used to hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $835.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dropping as low as $834.

Other precious metals traded mixed.

December silver inched up 0.2 cent to settle at $13.707 an ounce on the Nymex, while September copper fell 1.35 cents to settle at $3.387 a pound.

Jon Nadler, analyst with Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal, said the dollar's rally over the euro undercut gold's momentum and "basically negated the week's gains."

Gold "is down more than $80 on the month, a drop the magnitude of which has not been recorded since 1984," Nadler said in a note.

In energy markets, crude oil fell for a second day on expectations that the U.S. government will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if Tropical Storm Gustav disrupts energy production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 14 cents to settle at $115.46 a barrel on the Nymex, after earlier rising as high as $118.76 a barrel.

Other energy futures also fell. Heating oil lost 0.07 cent to settle at $3.1819 a gallon, while gasoline fell 1.15 cents to settle at $3.0099 a gallon.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, agriculture futures traded mostly lower.

Corn for December delivery fell 2.75 cents to settle at $5.85 a bushel, while November soybeans traded flat at $13.24 a bushel.

December wheat fell 9.75 cents to settle at $8.0125 a bushel.

[setravis]

Gold surges, pulls back in response to credit news
Thursday September 18, 2008
Gold prices jump above $900, then pull back sharply on credit market developments


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold briefly shot above $900 an ounce Thursday as panicky investors poured money into safe-haven assets, but the metal later gave back its gains on a report that the government may move more aggressively to steady the teetering financial system.


Gold had gained over $110 in a frenzied two-day rally, including the largest ever one-day price advance on Wednesday. But late Thursday, after regular gold trading ended, investors began selling and shifting money back into stocks on a report that the U.S. government may create an entity to absorb banks' bad loans.

Gold for December delivery jumped as much as $75.50, or 8.8 percent, to $926 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before easing back to settle at $897, still up $46.50. In aftermarket trading, prices fell $36.30 to $860.70 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold rose as much as $90 before settling $70 higher at $850.50 an ounce, the biggest one-day jump ever.

Gold had languished for months, but found new life this week as turmoil in the financial sector dramatically increased with the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the government's bailout of American International Group Inc. The metal regained its appeal as a safe haven in rocky economic times.

The metal's push higher Thursday came after the Federal Reserve stepped up efforts to stem the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The central bank pumped $55 billion into temporary reserves in the United States to free up the strained financial system. Hours earlier, the Fed joined other central banks to flood world markets with dollars, hoping to stave off a collapse of international credit markets.

The emergency moves gave some comfort to Wall Street a day after a massive decline, but many investors, fearing more turbulence in coming days, continued to shift funds out of riskier investments like stocks and into the relative safety of precious metals and U.S. Treasury bills.

"This is a very scary time and everyone is asking one thing: 'Where is the safest place to put my money?' Right now, gold looks like a good place," said Kevin Grady, a gold trader at MF Global in New York.

Other precious metals ended higher Thursday. December silver jumped $1.025 to settle at $12.70 an ounce on the Nymex. December copper rose 2.35 cents to settle at $3.006 a pound, while October platinum gained $51.30 to $1,137.60 an ounce.

A weaker dollar also boosted gold Thursday. When the greenback falls, investors often buy gold, silver and other hard assets to hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency.

But gold is most attractive during times of economic crisis. The metal has long been considered a safe, alternative investment, primarily because it's known for holdings its value over time.

"Even during the Depression, a kilogram of gold bought you a new Ford, Chevy or Plymouth. And even now a kilogram of gold still buys you a new Ford, Chevy or Plymouth, said George Gero, vice president at RBC Capital Markets Global Futures in New York.

Still, gold's trading pattern has been marked by extreme volatility, and analysts noted that prices could fall as quickly as they popped up -- which they did in fact do, late in the day. Thursday's rally was already being limited by investors who were unloading positions to cash in on the previous day's advance.

"Perhaps we've had a little too much, too soon on this spike up," Gero said.

[setravis]

Gold Climbs in New York After Dollar Weakens on Fed Rate Cut

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in New York, touching the highest price in more than two months, as the dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The dollar fell for a sixth straight session, dropping as much as 1.7 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies including the euro and yen. Yesterday, the Fed cut the benchmark rate from 1 percent to a target range of zero to 0.25 percent. Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar and is headed for an eighth straight annual gain.

"These actions by the Fed are the exact thing that got us in trouble in the first place," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. "The dollar is doomed and gold can go to $1,200."

Gold futures for February delivery jumped $25.40, or 3 percent, to $868.10 an ounce at 9:48 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $871.30, the highest since Oct. 13. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 on March 17.

Silver futures for March delivery climbed 57.5 cents, or 5.4 percent, to $11.28 an ounce on the Comex.

[setravis]

AP
Early Glance: Gold companies
Wednesday February 4, 10:35 am ET 
Gold companies shares up at 10 a.m.


NEW YORK (AP) --
Shares of some top gold companies are up at 10 a.m.:
Barrick Gold rose $1.31 or 3.7 percent, to $37.16.
Gold Fields rose $.05 or .5 percent, to $10.65.
Goldcorp rose $1.19 or 4.2 percent, to $29.37.
Newmont Mining rose $1.83 or 4.7 percent, to $40.70.

[setravis]

Gold prices rise, other commodities fall
Wednesday February 18, 2009, 4:01 pm EST


NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold prices continued their ascent Wednesday as investors refrained from making big bets in equities amid growing skepticism over the government's plans to revive the economy.

Other commodities, including grain and energy futures, declined.

Investors have grown increasingly disillusioned over the government's efforts to stimulate the economy, doubtful that the plans will be enough to pull the U.S. out of the worst recession in decades. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama unveiled details of a $75 billion plan to stabilize the crippled housing market.

The initiative seeks to aid borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, as well as those who are on the verge of foreclosure. But the announcement, which came one day after Obama signed a $787 billion economic stimulus plan into law, did little to ease Wall Street's worries.

While the stock market and other commodities have sustained big losses in recent weeks, gold prices have become a bright spot among downbeat forecasts for a prolonged recession. Gold tends to uphold its value better than other investments in times of economic turmoil.

Gold posted big advances over the past two days, rising 3.8 percent, despite strength in the dollar. Gold prices typically move inversely with the U.S. currency as investors use the commodity as a hedge against inflation. On Wednesday, the dollar climbed against most major currencies, including the euro and the British pound.

"When the dollar declines, gold usually tends to rise, but you've been seeing that trend being broken more forcefully," said Carlos Sanchez, an analyst with CPM Group in New York. "Not too many people want to go into the stock market right now."

Gold for April delivery rose $10.70 to settle at $978.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 10.6 percent this year.

Other precious metals prices also rose. March silver added 28 cents to $14.29 an ounce, while May copper futures gained 1.2 cents to $1.4545 a pound.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.71 percent from 2.65 percent late Tuesday.

Oil prices tumbled below $35 a barrel on the Nymex, as investors doubted that the stimulus bill will do much to boost energy demand.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 31 cents to settle at $34.62 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures slipped 5.66 cents to settle at $1.0652 a gallon, and heating oil fell 4 cents to settle at $1.1469 a gallon.

Grain prices fell on the Chicago Board of Trade.

May wheat futures shed 5 cents to $5.23 a bushel, while corn for May delivery slipped 1 penny to $3.58 a bushel.

May soybeans fell 18 cents to $8.8650 a bushel.

[setravis]

Want Gold? Wait for a Pullback...

It seems like everywhere you turn nowadays, you are hearing that the only place to have your money is gold. Basically, that has been a true statement and could remain true for quite some time. Investors have been buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, avoiding risky assets for the relative safety of bullion on continued fear about the health of the global financial system and the threat of coming inflation. In fact, it has been reported that the U.S. Mint has sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times the amount sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007. Back on Dec. 5, gold had suffered the same fate as other commodities and had been crushed due to the forced selling by hedge funds.

[setravis]

Value of Junior Miners Stabilizes Relative to the Price of Gold.

With many junior miners up 200-300% or more off of late 2008 lows, it's tempting to label the move a speculative fervor beckoning for a pullback. The argument has logical appeal, but what if gold holds steady or even rises from here?

To see the possibilities, one need only to pull up relative price charts that compare the price of junior miners, over time, with the price of gold. These charts were decimated last fall, as junior miners lost far more than the metal. It looks like the shares and the commodity are returning to a more normal relationship.

Take three of the so-called "speculative juniors" that many point to for signs of excess in precious metals: Apollo Gold (Amex:AGT), Claude Resources (Amex:CGR) and U.S. Gold (Amex:UXG). The huge gains over the past few weeks don't look so speculative when compared to the underlying commodity.

Those relative charts don't look like runaway speculation. Sure, I would prefer if they were not so "V-shaped," as "v" reversals tend to break down. But the broader patterns leave no doubt that the bears pressed too hard in the fourth quarter of 2009, and as a result they are no longer in control.

Bottom line: If gold breaks down, all miners are vulnerable. But if gold can hold its own, I expect the junior miners to attract far more speculative interest. And if the yellow dog takes out last year's highs, we could see moves in junior miners that would shock even the most die hard gold bugs.

[setravis]

Gold, silver prices rise as investors hunker down
Gold, silver prices rise as investors flee riskier assets in search of safety
Friday February 20, 2009, 6:51 pm EST


NEW YORK (AP) -- The only commodities shining on Friday were precious metals as investors fled riskier assets in search of safety.

The price of gold broke above $1,000 Friday for the first time in nearly a year as the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 100 points. Gold has surged 48 percent over the past four months.

The April gold contract rose as high as $1,007.70 an ounce Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling up $25.70 at $1,002.20. It finished up 6 percent for the week.

March silver rose 5.55 cents to finish at $14.49 an ounce -- also up 6 percent compared to last week's levels.

But May copper fell 5.5 cents to close at $1.433 a pound, and finished down 6 percent for the week. Copper is considered an industrial metal.

Energy prices fell, too, as anxieties about the economy escalated. Investors are nervous that if the recession is prolonged, individuals and businesses around the world will keep reining in their energy use.

Crude oil for March delivery expired Friday after falling 54 cents to settle at $38.94 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It still ended up 4 percent for the week, however.

April crude fell 15 cents on Friday to settle at $40.03 a barrel.

Gasoline futures fell 2.4 cents to settle at $1.0746 a gallon. Heating oil dropped less than a penny to finish at $1.1967 a gallon. Natural gas for March delivery slid 7.6 cents to close at $4.01 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grain prices also declined.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for March delivery slipped 0.25 cent to $5.1925 a bushel, March corn shed 3 cents to $3.5025 a bushel, and March soybeans sank 22 cents to $8.625 a bushel.

[setravis]

Gold prices little changed following economic data
More data showing falling prices for goods holds back advances for gold
Wednesday April 15, 2009, 4:36 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold was little changed Wednesday, held in check by data showing a drop-off in prices for consumer goods.

Other commodities, including energy and agriculture futures, were mostly lower.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices fell 0.1 percent last month, mostly due to a drop in energy prices. The data, which followed Tuesday's report showing a sharp drop in wholesale prices in March, is further evidence that the inflationary pressures investors long feared have yet to surface.

Inflation tends to benefit gold, which investors use as a hedge against falling prices and a weak U.S. dollar.

Some analysts have warned that the government's numerous measures to stimulate the economy and pump money into the financial system to get banks lending again could spark inflation down the road. But data continues to suggest that the likelihood is much farther off than originally thought.

Gold prices have been largely range-bound in recent weeks as the market's optimism about the economy grows and investors shift funds into more risky assets like stocks. Following a massive rally that pulled the major stock indexes off of 12-year lows in early March, stocks have struggled this week to advance ahead of first-quarter earnings reports.

Investors are in wait-and-see mode, hesitating to make big bets in any market, anxious for what the reports will say about the direction of the economy.

"We're probably on hold until these earnings reports are done coming out," said Tom Pawlicki, commodities analyst with MF Global Research in Chicago, adding that investors are waiting to see whether the stock market can continue to rally.

Gold for June delivery added $1.50 to settle at $893.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

May silver inched up 3.5 cents to $12.80 an ounce, while July copper futures rose 8.05 cents to $2.2090 a pound.

On Wall Street, stocks traded mixed throughout most of the day, but moved moderately higher midafternoon following a report from the Federal Reserve. The central bank's survey of business conditions by region found five of 12 regional banks reporting that the economy's slide has slowed.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies.

Energy prices fluctuated on the Nymex, as investors pored over fresh reports that signaled demand remains weak. The Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week -- more than double what analysts had expected. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced its forecast for 2009 crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $49.25 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery rose less than a penny to $1.4619 a gallon, and heating oil added 1.3 cents at $1.4150 per gallon.

Grain prices were mostly lower on the Chicago Board of Trade.

July wheat futures dropped 7 cents to $5.27 a bushel, while corn for July delivery fell 9.5 cents to $3.94 a bushel.

July soybeans added 1.25 cents to $10.3150 a bushel.

[setravis]

Gold
Spot gold made a false break below short-term support at $865 before reversing to again test resistance at $900, in response to a sharp fall on the Dow. Further weakness on the Dow, accompanied by gold breakout above $900 would signal that (gold) selling pressure is easing. Penetration of the declining trendline would warn of a trend change. Reversal below $865, however, would confirm the down-trend with a target of primary support at $700.

[setravis]

Gold & Silver Show Strength.......

Gold
Spot gold completed a small double-bottom, breaking out above resistance at $900. Penetration of the declining trendline would warn of a trend change. Look for retracement that respects the new support level, followed by breakout above the falling trendline. Reversal below $865, however, would confirm the down-trend with a target of primary support at $700.

[setravis]

10 year Gold Chart...

[setravis]

Gold                                    $926.600              +$2.700          +0.29%

Gold prices continued to rise modestly today as equity markets turned sour. While gold is benefitting from the uncertain nature of the economy, a recovery would mean that much of that source of strength would dissipate. On the other hand, the beginnings of a recovery would also open up the way for dormant inflationary pressures to emerge. Given the sheer amount of capital injected into the economy, this is a considerable risk. Nevertheless, as the economy continues to sputter, financials remain weak, and housing data points to perhaps even more pain in the coming year, markets will likely continue to ebb and flow with sentiment. As such, until the economy shows signs of a more certain direction gold prices will likely trade flat or show only modest gains.