ASTM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Lucas Scott]

Finally getting back some money on this old dog. I think it hits resistance at $2.50. I may cut my position there and look to reenter on a pullback.

Those Tissue Repair Cells are pretty cool biotechnology.

[thai626]

I think ASTM will make its move up this week to 2.20s.  Let's just hope that it doesn't fall back to the 1.90 because if so, there is no stopping it from hitting the 1.80s.  The recent pps action shows a pennant and the recent doji is a positive going into next week.

[Lucas Scott]

hey Thai - I agree with your analysis and added to my position at $2.02 on Thursday for the same reasons.

[thai626]

Wow.......what a bummer!!

Thanks to STEMCELLS INC (STEM), ASTM along with the stem cell sector took a hit. 

Although ASTM is trying to seperate itself from being known as a stemcell company, it hasn't achieved its goal as being known as a pure "therapeutic company" which uses stem cells as their base.

When is this horror going to end?   



StemCells to Sell 11.75 Million Shares
Monday April 3, 11:18 am ET 
StemCells to Sell 11.75 Million Shares at $3.05 Per Share


PALO ALTO, Calif. (AP) -- Biotech company StemCells Inc. said Monday it agreed to sell about 11.75 million shares to select institutional investors at $3.05 per share.
The company said it expects to use the proceeds of about $33 million for general corporate purposes, such as working capital and product development.

StemCells -- with about 65.4 million shares outstanding -- discovers stem cell-based treatments to diseases of the nervous system, liver and pancreas -- including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease.

Shares fell 42 cents, or 12 percent, to $3.16 in morning trading on the Nasdaq. The stock has traded between $2.59 and $6.58 in the past 52 weeks.


Thai

[setravis]

Maybe everything is not such doom and gloom....
Looks to have formed a Double Bottom.

Volume: 2,173,016
Avg Vol (3m): 1,874,770

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
-0.84%below 13-day EMA
1.00%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 6 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $206.73 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[thai626]

This is a classic example of how TA will not work when the PPS is being manipulated!!

I should have known all along....since history repeats itself that this was going to happen.

ASTM1.67, -0.11, -6.2%) Biosciences slid 6% to $1.67. The stem cell research group said it had executed a definitive purchase agreement for the sale of about 15.9 million shares to a group of institutional investors for $1.60 a share. Aastrom said it expects to raise approximately $25.5 million from the transaction.

Now this this has happened...I feel a little bit more relieved, yet am still angry at the companys management team for letting this happen.  They are too worried about the hedge fund friends and could careless about us private investors.  After every PIPE, Aastroms PPS will take off again. This is all apart of its history and as you know, history will repeat itself again!   

[Lucas Scott]

Yeah Thai - ASTM has been an extremely frustrating stock for going on a year now. Just keep loading up I guess. Stem cell hype will make a comeback sooner or later. Even though as you say ASTM is trying to separate itself from being known as a stem cell company, traders think "stem cells" when they think of ASTM.  At the latest I'd expect stem cell stocks to make a run as the 2008 election campaign heats up. Hopefully we won't have to wait that long.

[Melf Elf]

This is a classic example of how TA will not work when the PPS is being manipulated!!

Thai,

Sorry that happened, but let's take a look at the TA.

In early February, ASTM broke below 10 months worth of trading when it took out 1.88-1.90 support.

Since early February, ASTM formed a six-week "W"-Bottom, the middle of which was 1.87, a penny below that 1.88-1.90 former support, which now is resistance.

The 2.11 target MADE and was exceeded, but here's the problem: the stock has rallied out of a six-week pattern into ten months worth of overhead resistance.  Everyone who bought ASTM above 1.88-1.90 between April, 2005-February 2006 has a paper loss in the stock, and they represent a big overhead supply of sellers, many of whom want out of the stock.

Notice also that after making and exceeding the target,  ASTM already was under selling pressure and had broken back below 1.88-1.90 on April 4, ahead of the news.

Next post, I'll include the last year's worth of trading, to show you what I mean about the overhead supply.

[Melf Elf]

Thai,

As we know, stocks can do whatever they want to, but think of everything above the red line as "the opposing team" against everything below the red line (the six week "W" bottom).

The six-week pattern is "skimpy," trying to go up against all of that resistance.

Sometimes, it works out, like GTE.  GTE started out with a "skimpy" pattern, but it went on to form other bullish patterns, then took off to the upside.

"In general," though, a bullish six-week pattern isn't favored to succeed against 10 months worth of resistance, if you see what I mean.

After the rally to 2.27, "if" ASTM had held at 1.88-1.90 (solid red line), it "could have" done something else bullish, like GTE did.

Breaking back below 1.88-1.90 on April 4 was an indication of weakness.

Just something to watch for in the future...how good is the pattern, and how much resistance is it going up against?

Again, I'm sorry ASTM went down, darn it.   

 

[thai626]

Lucas and Melf,

Here's an example of what I posted in my previous message.  IMO, I think there is a lot of collusion between ASTM management team and the Hedge funds / Institutional investors.  They always tend to lower the price just before they do a private financing.  Isn't it funny how they were granted Orphan Drug status and the next day the stock went down??  IMO, I think that the stock was "shorted" heavily after the quick rise.  That and the fact that they probably knew that STEM was going to do a private financing as which everyone knows will affect ASTMs PPS.  What this private placement allows them to do is cover their short positions just before the run up cause you know that they'll hate to be long on this stock. (if they were a short).

If you look at the past history, ASTMs price shoots up very quickly after a private financing.  I have no doubt in my mind that that will happen again.  The only question is how low will it go before the rise up again?  With the Senate debate (which has been delayed and delayed and delayed) soon to be discusssed in either May or June, I'm guessing it's the best time for ASTM to allow the hedge funds / institutional investors to cover their short positions by this private placement. 

Note that this private placement doesn't close until April 11th, 2006.  The PPS could go a bit lower or maybe it has stabalized at this level.  We'll just have to wait and find out.   


Ann Arbor, Michigan, October 27, 2004 – Aastrom Biosciences, Inc.
(NasdaqSC: ASTM) announced today that it has executed definitive Stock Purchase Agreements for the sale of approximately 8.26 million shares of the Company's common stock in a registered direct placement at a price of $1.21 per share for proceeds of $10 million.  This transaction is expected to be consummated within the next few days.

Rodman & Renshaw, Inc. served as the exclusive placement agent in this transaction.  As part of this transaction, the Company will also issue warrants to the institutional investors, exercisable for 4 years, to purchase up to approximately 2.07 million shares of common stock at a price of $1.74 per share.  These warrants must be held by the investors for at least six months prior to exercise, and if exercised, the warrants could generate up to an additional $3.6 million in proceeds to Aastrom.

Ann Arbor, Michigan, July 10, 2003 – Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (NasdaqSC: ASTM) announced today that it has raised a total of $9.5 million at an average price to the Company of $0.96 per share since June 1, 2003 through multiple sales transactions of the Company's common stock.  This series of financings culminated in a final private placement of 5.06 million shares of the Company's common stock for gross proceeds of $4.3 million.

Rodman & Renshaw, Inc. served as the exclusive placement agent in the latest financing that introduced several new institutional investors to Aastrom.  As part of this transaction, the Company will also issue warrants exercisable for 4 years to purchase up to 1.26 million shares of common stock at a price of $1.23, as well as warrants to purchase up to approximately one million shares of common stock at $1.50 per share prior to October 31, 2003.

[Melf Elf]

IMO, I think there is a lot of collusion between ASTM management team and the Hedge funds / Institutional investors. I think that the stock was "shorted" heavily after the quick rise.

Thai,

That's a tough one, as far collusion is concerned.  I don't doubt that stuff goes on in some stocks, but if there was heavy shorting in the stock, I'd have to say that it was justified, technically, given that ASTM had rallied into very heavy resistance, above 1.88-1.90.

I have no doubt in my mind that that will happen again.  The only question is how low will it go before the rise up again? 

Boy, it sure rallied after the two examples that you presented.  I hope that's the case again this time.   Good luck, Thai!

[thai626]

IMO, I think ASTM is a buy at this level.  I do not think that they (MMs) will allow the stock price to fall below 1.50.  The completion of the 15.9 million shares is expected tomorrow.  I will be very interested in finding out what the short shares will be this month.  Hopefully, it'll be somewhat lower than it is now.   

Thai

Thanks Melf for you thoughts!  Appaud!  Great work!

[la-onda]

ASTM: Completes $25.5M Reg Direct PIPE: Common @ $1.60/Share
Tuesday , April 11, 2006 19:36 ET

On April 11, 2006 Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. closed its previously announced registered direct offering of 15,943,750 shares of Aastrom's common stock to certain institutional investors at a price of $1.60 per share. The aggregate gross proceeds from the direct offering were approximately $25.5 million. The net proceeds, after deducting the placement agents' fee and other estimated offering expenses, were approximately $23.8 million.

[Lucas Scott]

What a beautiful chart. It's so ugly it's beautiful

- The Bagholder

[Melf Elf]

What a beautiful chart. It's so ugly it's beautiful

- The Bagholder

Luke,

The chart also is so ugly that one wouldn't suspect, looking at it, that the longer-term picture still looks okay.  I'll show you what I mean in the next post.

Short-to-intermediate term, taking out that attempt at triple bottom, at 1.63, looks lousy.  A snapback rally to there could occur at any time, but then there's much heavier resistance at the 1.88-190 support that got taken out, if the stock can get through 1.63.

ASTM got through 1.88-1.90 in March and rallied to 2.27, but I think that it will have a much more difficult time getting through 1.88-1.90 on any rally here, unless there's some really good news.

Monthly chart coming up.