ASTM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

Luke,

ASTM had a nice Inverse H&S breakout in early 2005, and went well beyond the target, almost to the top of Kumo (Cloud), which was long-term resistance.

Since the top, as awful as the daily chart looks, basis the monthly chart, ASTM has been trading in a bullish-looking Bull Flag or Bullish Falling Wedge formation.  We won't know which, until the fourth data point (the next low) is established.

While I'm not an advocate of "doubling down" (especially in "knife-catching" situations), this is a situation in which I would consider it, if/when ASTM shows evidence that it's found a bottom.

The Kumo (Cloud) now is beneath the stock, offering support, rather than the resistance that it presented at the January, 2005 top.

Additonally, there's "possible" support on a re-test of the neckline from the Inverse H&S pattern.

The Kumo (Cloud) currently is: 1.145 - 1.41
The falling neckline currently is: 1.27

Given the technical damage done to the daily chart, this could take awhile to play out, and this is a monthly chart.  But, I'd watch the daily chart over the coming weeks, for a bottoming formation (base), and technical signs that it's shaping up.

Good luck! I hope that I remember to follow this one.  I like the suggestion in this monthly chart of the current pattern being of bullish continuation of the Inverse H&S breakout.

[la-onda]

back to 1.6$ 

[thai626]

ASTM is back and so am I!!!   

Look for a great week/month for all stem cell stocks. The shorts will be covering very heavily once the senate debate the stem cell issue.  It's also my pick for the stock picking contest............so please go read that post for more info.  Good luck all!

Thai

[Holygrale]

Appears to have bottomed out............stem news is hot right now........

[Melf Elf]

joe,

ASTM had a tall white candle Friday.  It was up about 13% on 4 times average daily volume, and was among the top percentage gainers, so it might be worth considering for buying a 50% or 61.8% retracement of the white candle if the chart looks alright .

Fundamentals:

1. They reported last week that Q4 losses widened.   

However, the stock didn't sell off much.  1.12 held, which suggests, "We expected the bad news.  It's already in the stock."

2. There was some "promising" news, which prompted Friday's rally in the stock:

Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM : ASTM

shares surged 13% Friday after the company reported "promising" interim results from its Phase I/II clinical trial evaluating tissue repair cells in the treatment of recalcitrant long bone non-union fractures.

Technicals: What does the chart look like?

Long-term picture: BEARISH 

1, Broke a Double H&S Top

2. Broke Key Support at 1.88 - 1.90

3. Broke 1.63 support, rallied to 1.57 in July, and failed below the 1.63 resistance. 

Next chart is a close-up of 2006, and Friday's tall white candle, but keep that 1.88-1.90 resistance in mind.

[Melf Elf]

1. Last support was 1.63, prior to the 1.10 low. 

Coming off the 1.10 low, did the chart look strong enough to get through 1.63 resistance?  We'd have to say, "No," and it didn't.  The rally failed at 1.57.

2. ASTM now has put in a "W"-Bottom formation (actually, a triple bottom, though, with the 1.10...1.12...1.12 lows), and had a nice, tall white candle on Friday.

Does this current pattern look strong enough to get through 1.63 resistance?  I think we'd have to say, "Yes!"  This is a five-month base, playing for The Bulls, going up against two months worth of 1.63 - 1.87 resistance (February-April), playing for The Bears.

If the "W" Bottom breaks out at 1.58, a penny above the 1.57 middle of the pattern, it would put a target of 2.02 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.57 - Middle of the W-Bottom

1.12 - Low of the pattern (I always use the more conservative number, so not 1.10).

1.57 - 1.12 = 0.45 points

1.57 + 0.45 = Target: 2.02 IN PLAY

Is it reasonable/realistic for that target to get MADE?

but keep that 1.88-1.90 resistance in mind.

That's 13 months worth of resistance, and this would be a rally against the dominant trend (Bearish), so might fall short of the target, but it's a decent base, and certainly could bang it's way through the low end of resistance, and make the 2.02 target if it breaks out.

Buying a Fibonacci Retracement of Friday's Tall white candle:

Math:

The high was 1.3279, so we'll call it 1.33.

The low was 1.14.

A 50% retracement would be 1.235, so we'll round up, for a buy at 1.24.

A 61.8& retracement would be 1.213, so 1.21...1.22, for a buy.

Stop: 1.09

Good risk:reward.  About 1:3, or better, on the 1.24 entry, depending on exit in the high 1.80s...1.90s...or near the 2.02 target.

[Melf Elf]

A 50% retracement would be 1.235, so we'll round up, for a buy at 1.24.

A 61.8& retracement would be 1.213, so 1.21...1.22, for a buy.

Stop: 1.09

There's the 1.23 - 1.24 50% Fribonacci retracement of Friday's tall white candle.  I'll buy ASTM at 1.21, if I can.

[Melf Elf]

I'll buy ASTM at 1.21, if I can.

I thought I might get stopped out on this one, but ASTM has put in a triple-bottom at 1.12, and today, has taken out the 1.33 mid-September high for a W-Bottom breakout, on almost 4X average 100 Day volume.  Nice!

W-BottomTarget: 1.54 is IN PLAY

The high today is 1.38.  ASTM currently is BID 1.36...ASK 1.37

[thai626]

Let's try this again guys!!   

ASTM back in play!! 

News just released today as well.  Looks like the new CEO is cleaning house with his own people.  Janet Hock did a good job while at Aastrom.  Congrats to her!

Ronnda L. Bartel, Ph.D. Joins Aastrom Biosciences as Vice President Research & Development
Monday October 16, 7:00 am ET 
- Appointment Brings Strong Product Development Leadership to Company -


ANN ARBOR, Mich., Oct. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: ASTM - News) today announced that Ronnda L. Bartel, Ph.D. has joined the Company as Vice President of Research and Development. Dr. Bartel is responsible for the product development and manufacturing of Aastrom's TRC-based cell products, as well as the Company's discovery and research efforts. Her broad experience and leadership in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, along with experience in the manufacturing and marketing of new cell-based products, strongly support and complement the Company's progress in moving its tissue regeneration products through the commercialization process.
Dr. Bartel is a seasoned scientist with more than 20 years of research and product development experience in the biotech, pharmaceutical, diagnostic and device sectors. During this time she held several management positions including: Senior Principal Scientist, Cell Biology at Advanced Tissue Sciences; Vice President, Scientific Development and Senior Director, Stem Cell Development at Stem Cells, Inc.; Senior Director, Science and Technology at SRS Capital, LLC; and, most recently, Executive Director, Biological Research at MicroIslet, Inc. She has also held positions in clinical development, drug delivery, business development and manufacturing. Dr. Bartel holds a Ph.D. in Biochemistry from the University of Kansas, completed postdoctoral work at the University of Michigan and received a B.A. in Chemistry and Biology from Tabor College.

"We are very pleased to welcome Dr. Bartel to Aastrom as our new Vice President of Research and Development," said George W. Dunbar, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aastrom. "Ronnda's experience in developing cell-based products, as well as establishing and improving manufacturing processes, are essential to our commitment of moving Aastrom's tissue regeneration cell products through the development stage and into the market place. In addition, her clinical, scientific, and management skills will drive our research programs which are necessary to expand our own expertise, and to influence the field of regenerative medicine."

Aastrom also announced that Janet M. Hock, B.D.S., Ph.D., Vice President of Global Research and CSO, has accepted the position as founding Director of the Maine Institute for Human Genetics and Health, a new program in cancer, genetics and regenerative medicine, supported by Eastern Maine Healthcare Systems, in collaboration with Jackson Laboratory and the University of Maine.

Mr. Dunbar concluded, "We appreciate the contributions Dr. Hock has made towards Aastrom's research advancements, and wish her well as she pursues new endeavors in the field of scientific research."

[Ramsburg]

Profile: Aastrom Biosciences, Inc., a development stage company, focuses on the development of autologous cell products for use in regenerative medicine. The company develops tissue repair cell (TRC) based products for use in multiple therapeutic areas. It intends to pursue TRC-based cell products for various therapeutic areas, such as vascular tissue regeneration, including critical limb ischemia; bone tissue regeneration applications, such as fractures, spine fusion, and osteonecrosis; cardiac tissue regeneration; and neural tissue regeneration. The company is primarily conducting a Phase I/II spine fusion clinical trial in the United States.
Website: http://www.aastrom.com
Market Cap: 162M

Trading Idea:
ASTM has been testing a support @ $1.12 for several months, making this a floor level, a few days ago the stock started to climb, increasing its volume and yesterday it had an interesting breakout of the current pattern.

This is a 100% technical play, probably a risky one, but we expect upside continuation on this chart, up from here we only have the $1.56 resistance level and the $1.25/$1.27 zone (the breakout zone) should provide support in case of pullback.

Trading Plan:
Buy ASTM today and set a stop @ $1.23 for this position

Regards,

[Melf Elf]

Hey, thai...good to see you!  Hopefully, we'll get some play out of this now.

ASTM had a nice Inverse H&S breakout in early 2005, and went well beyond the target, almost to the top of Kumo (Cloud), which was long-term resistance.

Since the top, as awful as the daily chart looks, basis the monthly chart, ASTM has been trading in a bullish-looking Bull Flag or Bullish Falling Wedge formation.  We won't know which, until the fourth data point (the next low) is established.

There's a good chance that we got the fourth data point, at 1.10.

Additonally, there's "possible" support on a re-test of the neckline from the Inverse H&S pattern.

We didn't quite make it to the neckline, but close.

Given the technical damage done to the daily chart, this could take awhile to play out,

Yeah, that was some serious technical damage done the chart last winter, on the break of 1.90 support.  It left everyone who bought in 2005 stranded above that level. 

But, I'd watch the daily chart over the coming weeks, for a bottoming formation (base), and technical signs that it's shaping up.

This has a chance.  1.54 is IN PLAY.  The top of this HUGE two-year Falling Wedge comes in this week at about 1.52. 

I hope that I remember to follow this one.  I like the suggestion in this monthly chart of the current pattern being of bullish continuation of the Inverse H&S breakout.

It still looks that way.

Good luck, my friend!

[Ramsburg]

Update:
ASTM just had a very volatile session, showing a lot of strength during yesterday's morning, but not being able to hold those highs for the rest of the day. Volume was very strong, and we still expect upside continuation.
The trading plan will be:

Trading Plan:
Hold, with suggested stop near $1.23 and suggested exit near $1.55.

Regards,

[Melf Elf]

I'll buy ASTM at 1.21, if I can.

Sold ½ my position in ASTM at 1.31.  Gain 8.3%.

As much as I like the longer-term possiibilities in this stock, presented above, the last two candles are nasty, and I don't like the close below the 1.33 breakout.

This still could re-test the big Inverse H&S breakout, and it's been a terrible underperformer, so if it comes anywhere near my 1.21 enty, I'll sell the remaining ½ position.

[thai626]

Nice chart Melf!  Applaud!  Good to see you too!   

I really hate the last two trading days for ASTM as well but I agree with you that this could be a great play if one decides to hold longer term.  Usually, I try not to get emotional about a stock but unfortunately that's not the case with ASTM.  I've been an investor with ASTM for quite a while and am not willing to sell unless some really devastating clinical trial results are released.  IMO, everything the company has been doing clinically has been progressing and proven to work. 

However, what I dislike was the way the old CEO was managing the company and all the possible deals he made with VCs.  Although I don't know that for a fact, this is just my own speculation.  I think it'll be soon that this company gets back on track.

Good luck to all shareholders!! 

Thai

[Ramsburg]

Intraday Update:
Interesting price development here, we are testing this rebound's highs, lets see if ASTM follows STEM momentum and breaks out the $1.45 resistance today... that would be really the best sign about being right on this rebound intentions

A proper update will be posted during the weekend.

Regards,