RGEN

[rabidmonk]

Hi Rocket,

My take is for investors to hold long on RGEN at this juncture.

If you perform a correlation analysis between VPHM as it traded on 8-09-05 and RGEN as it trades today, you will see a great number of parallels. These are visible in the TA in both 1 year and 60 day charts -- especially the 60 day chart. I think a very similar resolution will play out with RGEN eventually. Unfortunately, I think longs are in for a little more blood letting over the next 5 to 7 trading sessions before an uptrend begins. Again, do some comparative analysis with this one, and you will see what appears to be very similar PPS patterns with very similar TA concentric with those patterns stock to stock. Dual or Quad monitors really facilitate comparisons, so if one isn't already running multiple monitors they should consider doing so.

Bottom line -- give it a litlle time.

Just MHO --  Rabid

P.S. are you in Finland? Ever hear of that 70's band named FOCUS?  Just curious... I always liked the fusion stylings of Van Lear and Ackerman...

[Melf Elf]

what do you think MELF ?  are we back in the KUMO ?  trying to figure this stuff out i feel like perry KUMO! haha. 

Perry KUMO,   

RGEN is trading above the Kumo (vertical green lines), which is an area of support, and it's trading below the broken Bearish Rising Wedge (blue lines), which is an area of resistance overhead. 

So, technically, since the break below the Bearish Rising Wedge four sessions ago, RGEN has been caught between a wedge and a Perry KUMO.   

[fous]

Rocket8 asked if i would do some TA on this one and i actually came up with some pretty good stuff. I might have even convinced myself to partake in this endeavour  .

RGEN'S price action is forming a beautiful inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.

First off since rocket doesn't know much about TA i'll elplain whats suppose to happen in an inverted H & S pattern. I'm going to # the process and then label the #'s on the chart to match whats happening from my description to the price action on the chart. Call it a "key" if you will.

The Inverted H & S:

1. Price action from the stock is usually in a decline for a month or more losing interest from investors and prices reach some what of a climax for the downside move. The stock then rallies a small amount on low volume.

Left Shoulder:

2. A second decline from the small rally in phase 1. occurs on expanding volume to create another lower low and in turn, another rally is created on lowered  volume.  This price action creates a trough, which in our case is the Left shoulder, labled LS on the chart.


HEAD:

3. When the rally from the left shoulder ends another decline in price action occurs to make a new low on increasing volume, higher volume than the rally that occured after the low of the LS was formed. But not as high as the over volume of the LS. After the downside peak occurs another rally forms on low volume.

Still following me here  getting a little technical. Hence what were doing; Technical Analysis 

Right Shoulder

4.The rally from the low of the head peaks out and begins its next decline on considerably low volume. This second peak creates the neckline of the H&S pattern labled with the yellow line. Soon after the decline bottoms out and created another rally heading towards the neckline. Volume will Increase considerably during this phase. Finally, to complete a H&S pattern is must breakthrough the neckline. Though a H&S pattern may look perfect, if the rally from the right shoulder towards the neckline is not on heavy volume it is likely to occur that a false pattern has been created. In light of RGEN. We had heavy volume  .

Projecting the profit Target:

To obtain a profit target. Measure the distance from the low of the head to the neckline. Project that amount from the breakout of the neckline on the right shoulder. With RGEN we have a nice looking target of $5.03. I havn't looked at any fundamentals so rocket would be better at telling if we are looking to see prices higher than this. But as Far as TA goes, we're looking at a target of $5.03

And now you've and a full lesson on the Inverted H & S pattern. RGEN was a perfect example of this, couldn't have picked a better stock to explain it 

-As far as the recent pullback its not of any surprise to me with the fairly sharp rise that preceded it. It looks like its building some support at $3.30 on low volume wich is near the peak of the rally of the LS.

- The main thing that needs to happen is for price action to close above this last rally. But even more importanly than that. A close above the high of the latest rally, would mean a HUGE filled gap from that occurred early in Jan of this year and at the beginning of the left shoulder. Two very bullish indicators at once, the close above the relative high of the last rally, and a close to fill a huge gap. What more could you ask for? Well you could ask nicely for price action to gap up on heavy volume of course  .

Well i think its about bed time haha 2:45 AM and im supposed to wake up at 6 AM for the opening bell lol. Oh well im young my body can handle it. And of course i love everything about the stock market.

Hope this was of any help Rocket8 and everyone else following this thread. Im fully invested so i'll probably sit and spectate this one.

Best of luck,

-fousc

[Melf Elf]

But as Far as TA goes, we're looking at a target of $5.03

Nice analysis, fousc.  Applause.

Back on page 1 of this thread,  I have the pattern as a Symmetrical Triangle.  It's about the sixth post down on August 25 if you want to look at that chart.  I lean toward the Symmetrical Triangle because the July 27 gap up was a gap above the triangle, almost to the exact penny.  Targets: 3.95 (MADE on August 24) and 5.37. 

If I measure the distance from the trendline to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, the target is about 4.95 instead of 5.37, close to your 5.03.

It looks like its building some support at $3.30 on low volume wich is near the peak of the rally of the LS.

The 3.30 area is close to eliteG's G-spot, at 3.32.  He wasn't sure if it qualified as a G-spot, though, because of the gap up on July 27.

[fous]

Thanks for the feedback melf. 

I too noticed the symetrical triangle when i was reviewing RGEN which indeed does give me the same target. I juse thought (IMO) that the inverted H&S was more appropriate due to the volume patterns along with the price action.

regards-
fousc

[Melf Elf]

As I understand it TA tells you where the support and resistance is and then you make your own decision as to whether to buy or sell right?

Daniel,

I like that.  No guarantees that it will be support or resitance, so you've got to decide whether you want to play it, or not. That's why we calculate the risk/reward.  I'll use my STX trade yesterday as an example.

We had two Bullish Doji Star Hammers on the chart, and they appeared in the area of the November, 2004 gap.  Now that the gap was filled, and with two bullish candlesticks showing up on the chart, I made the decision to play it for a countertrend rally.  My risk if STX took out the low of those two candlesticks (14.81) was about 2%.  My reward if STX rallied to/above 16 was about 6%, or triple my risk. 

At that point, it boils down to, "based on what you're seeing in the chart, and given the risk/reward, do you want to play it, or not?"  Given the beating that STX had taken and the good fundamentals,  I played it, and I lost 2.1%.  No big deal.  On to the next trade.

It seems what you guys are saying is that if RGEN breaks above $4 (with volume) we will go to $5.03 ?

No, we're never saying "will go."  We're only saying what the pattern measurement is, and we're trying to assess the chances of the stock getting there.  Volume, as you point out, is a big help.  Then we look at other things, like how much overhead resistance there is, and other technical indiicators, etc.

   Are there TA clues as to whether that will happen or not?

 
Yes, there are clues, but, no, TA never answers the question, "Is the stock going to do XYZ, or not?" in a manner that is completely reliable.  It's more a case of "the odds favor that the stock will do XYZ."  But, no guarantees, or we'd all be billionaires

Does the TA on RGEN answer that question? 

Remember when we discussed the Bearish Rising Wedge in RGEN, and how the MACD had a Double Negative Divergence?  How, as RGEN went higher, the MACD kept making lower highs and it wasn't confirming the successive price highs in the stock?

That "suggested" that the Bearish Rising Wedge actually was bearish, that the stock had run out of upward momentum, and that the bearish pattern likely would resolve with a break to the downside, which it did.  TA didn't "tell us" that RGEN would break to the downside, as a certainty.  It just "suggested" it terms of "the odds favor..."

Take a look at the ASTM file for another example of how TA doesn't TELL US what's going to happen, but how it can help us to assess the chances of what will happen.

Here's an update, BTW, on what the MACD on RGEN did after the Double Negative Divergence:

[rocket8]

looks my ship has come in.
lol.

finally ehh....

rocket8

[rocket8]

day 2 and the fun continues.
here is where i suck.
i never know when to sell.
i try to apply the dave method of letting it go up but then i end up selling early for less of a gain anyway.

i sold 90% from $4.15 to $4.45.

[wrangler]

Rocket8
Read where you have trouble trying to figure out when to sell a stock. You might try to use the MACD box below chart. I use this and it works real good for me but each person will have to use it in his own way but it is a good way to use buy and sell signals.
Look at chart I'm posting it is RGEN the one you have right now. The black line is the MACD line and the blue line is the MA line. When black line crosses over blue line going up that is a buy signal and when it crosses over going down that is the sell signal. Look at the past crossovers and you will see what I mean.
Remember each person has got to develop his own way when to buy and when to sell. I like to wait 2 or 3 days when a buy signal is given to be sure it's not a fake run up and I like to wait till the black line curves going down heading for the blue line to sell so I can get maximum gains.
Learn to use the buy and sell signals on the MACD box. If you need more info , Feel free to ask
Goodluck trading

[Melf Elf]

Repost...Technical Analysis Board
Chart Patterns/Candlestick Patterns « Reply #22 on: Today at 12:02:26 PM
Quote from: fousc on Today at 04:44:46 AM
ascending channel


fousc,

Here's one that resolved to the downside (pattern in blue), so you have one of each direction.   

Also, a Symmetrical Triangle fractal (repeating pattern)that broke out this week.  Upside target is close the first Symmetrical Triangle target.  As long as it remains above the breakout, I would expect to see the stock challenging 5.14-5.37 by the end of April, 2006; no later than the end of 2006.
   
   
   
   
   

[gambler2075]

bot 3.5k at 3.20...
a bunch of traders in my trading group (especially one of our TA traders) are buying.

here are his comments:

"both the 20 and 50 are pointing up and in parrellel on the one
year....chart readers will see it. "

we'll see...
g

[airattack]

gambler2075      ur group still like INNO