AAPL - Sector: Technology - Industry: Computer Hardware

[nullzero]

AAPL showing amazing bull strength in the face of the negative news. I was wrong and so were many others thinking that AAPL would take a deeper hit of about -10% or so. Will have to wait till next week to see where this goes.

[joet]

"His faithful followers will be listening carefully on Monday when Steve Jobs strides on stage to address the masses of Apple Computer Inc.'s fans at the company's annual worldwide developers conference."  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B5FC1DDF8-BC59-4938-8DA8-1C6C5534E665%7D

Hopefully this will be a "sell the news"  week for those of us holding shorts on AAPL.  I figure it could also be our demise if the lid has been kept on some great secret!  What a rally AAPL had at the end of the day

Interesting reading here for those short:
http://www.forbes.com/newsletter/2006/08/04/apple-dell-hp-in_jd_0804soapbox_inl.html

Good weekend to all
Cheers Joel

[Melf Elf]

AAPL showing amazing bull strength in the face of the negative news.

nullz,

Today was a good example of what we discussed yesterday, about being given a chance to get out of a postion that has gone under water:

3. If it sells off, where would you cover?   Do you expect a break even?  Would you settle for a loss that is half of what you have on paper now?  Those questions tend to drive us nuts.  If AAPL sells off to, say $67, then rallies to $80, we want to kick ourselves for not covering at a smaller loss, at $67.

I shorted AAPL at 65.66, and covered at 67.24, for a 2.4% loss.  If I hadn't covered, at yesterday's close of 69.59, my paper loss would have been 6%.

On today's bad news, I would have been given a chance to cover for a break even, or a slight gain if I was quick enough to cover near the 64.96 low. 

If I didn't take the opportunity to get out at a break even today, I'd now be sitting on a paper loss of 4%, more of a loss than where I covered.

Arggh-hhh!!!   

Just some T2T discussion.  I hope that AAPL tanks next week for you guys, but you understand that my point isn't about AAPL at all.

Good luck guys!



 

[joet]

YES Melf
I was thinking of your sage words this morning as i lamented not being able to cover in the pre-market then thinking but not pulling the trigger in the 65's and now back up    Crazy day for AAPL which makes me think it may have more strength next week.  the single day chart sure is a unique symmetrical pattern... any significance (one day rounding bottom??)  Obviously I am hoping that Jobbs does not announce some new wonder product Monday AM and the market sells the news. 

Looking back at the day chart (and others) i am looking at RSI indicator on the daily chart...  on a volatile stock it seems that whenever the RSI hits 20 or 80 it may be time for the day trader to trade the position...  obviously there needs to be enough volatility to cover the expenses and such.  Has anyone tried this technique?  I am in the process of learning Fidelity's "wealthlab pro" program which allows for back testing so i will have to see if i can test it there.
Cheers Joe

[nullzero]

We will see where AAPL goes next week. Im hoping for a sell on news which is highly likely. Also the FED meeting if it ends there may be also a sell on news effect on the markets.

[Tequity]

I scalped calls off the bottom today but for those hoping for a 10-20 pt drop I think if I had puts or was short going into the news I would've covered on the parablolic down move. First because it was really luck to get that announcement and second, with the exception of the May selloff, the market has been too trecherous lately to pass on a windfall like this in order to hold out for a killing. You wake up thinking a killing is all but guaranteed to you but it just ends in frustration and another missed oppty.  Just imho. This trade isn't over... I'd be looking to get puts if they try to run it past 70 early next week but only on a gap or parabolic move... plenty were shorting at 60 thinking it was overbought  . GL

[nullzero]

Thanks us shorts are going to need it. Sometimes its always good to think the opposite of what people are thinking. AAPL being the case everyone thinks its overbought yet it keeps going up. But like many say with any asset bubble they always go up more then anyone ever imagined... but when they burst they BURST hard and fast HANS and NTRI being examples.

[nullzero]

Not sure what way AAPL will go next week but one thing for sure is the bad news is rolling in. This seems to be the first class action lawsuit against Apple. I couldnt imagine AAPL holding onto these gains with this news pouring in. I think after the WWDC passes on monday and the if the market sells off AAPL will be in the dog house.



"Keller Rohrback Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Apple Computer, Inc. -- AAPL"

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060804/103348.html

[Terliso]

Patience will pay off nullzero
I believe AAPL will close the gap between $54.10 and $59.72 in the short-term

[nullzero]

Yeah I learned this from my HANS short hehe. Im sure AAPL will close the gap soon.

[joet]

Howdie Terliso and all,

Applaud the "3 Magics" you really should start your own thread with that title.  I have been reading your posts for some time now.  I finally took some time this weekend to study the 3 Magic lines that you use and back testing on some stocks that I am interested in.  If you get time (or anyone else) could you provide some incite into some of these questions.  (First, let me confirm that I have the correct lines 50 and 200-day simple moving average and the 200 exponential moving averages)

·   Do you have a preferred chart duration... looking at multi year charts I have found that the 3 often predict a big run but then on the way down there is often a false rebound in price per share (PPS) accompanied by the 3 lines grouping again. Due you ever use the same indicators on a short-term chart, in minutes on a 5-day chart for example?
·   Exit strategy??  Do you sell after a percentage gained, or perhaps MACD and RSI indicators turning south?  It would appear that the 3 lines would not provide an exit target?  (LBIX are you exiting now??)(STEC tempted to short as RSI is so high and starting to turn!) Target for DRYS?  AVCI, still long or going short, the July 20 gap should get at least partially filled.
·   Do you have a preference on the order of the 3 lines, which one is on top or middle etc?
·   Ideally the 3 lines are tightly grouped on both the daily and weekly charts for an entry?
·   Entry seem to be best if you can catch it when the 50SMA just crosses the other two to the upside, if it is an top for a while have we missed the trade?  (ie. Fous picked AUTO.OB last Thursday, MACD and RSI look good for a building G pattern but the 3 magics are quite spread out both daily and weekly and the PPS has been above them for a while!)
·   AAPL I am short and expect the gap to fill, BUT look at the 3 magics, the past 5 sessions have closed above the 3 lines (above $65.59) on the 1year daily, and well above water on the 1-year weekly...  don't you see some more upside to AAPL or does the gap trump the 3 magics in your eyes?

I am getting long winded I guess... let me leave you with some that I feel may qualify now or soon for a long entry based on these 3 moving averages. 

·   CTDC, almost there on the daily and 2/3 there on the weekly, when this one moves it moves fast (I have a bag of CTDC, 3 year chart especially interesting) 
·   OMM missed best entry in May, still above on both weekly and daily, broke out of a strong 1.5 year long channel $16-$20 in late June and is looking strong. Too late? 
·   OMNI, Sept 2005 entry, potential double top reversal in the next week or so!
·   HSOA Daily chart is fighting to get back above the 3 lines the weekly chart has held above them but the next 2 weeks will be critical, Earnings on Aug 18 and hurricane potential drive this one (one of my larger positions...)

Have a great weekend everyone, and keep up the great posts!  Cheers Joe

[nullzero]

Looks like the typical sell on news for AAPL. Its now dropping pretty fast after the WWDC came out today and there was no new IPODS or products that the market didnt expect.

[Tequity]

"Keller Rohrback Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Apple Computer, Inc. -- AAPL"

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060804/103348.html

These golddiggers can't hurt a stock as strong as Apple's. But on the technical side that gap closing today was a good entry for a short or put (they ran it almost to 70 as I thought).  That entry was especially sweet when it gave up 3 pts almost immediately. I'd cover at 69.50 or on the next sharp move. Just a trade imo. GL

http://tequity.blogspot.com

[nullzero]

Here is an updated chart of AAPL. Looking at the chart there is a huge increase in bearish volume. The 200DMA is at 65.99 I expect possibly tomorrow AAPL may test the 200dma and head down. Also MACD is heading down and RSI is on the way down.

[Terliso]

I changed plan to hold onto the short. I made the same mistake with HANS a while back i put a 7% loss stop on HANS and shorted HANS at 180 got stopped out... Look where HANS is now . Im going to HOLD AAPL for a mid term short based on AAPL being extremely overbought... PE way to high in a market like this. Also for the likelyhood of a decrease in the fundamental outlook. I think AAPL will give in big time with a simply downgrade just like HANS did today. I also think the market is ripe for a nasty fall the next few weeks.

Nullzero,

What a drop from HANS.........over 25%      

Broke the 50sma (daily chart) then drop like a rock today...