AAPL - Sector: Technology - Industry: Computer Hardware

[nullzero]

This Apple wont fall from the tree! The trading has been very wierd on AAPL the last few weeks nothing seems to take AAPL down for long. I suppose there is lots of buyers stepping into AAPL because of back to school play on increased laptop sales. Going long in AAPL seems to risky though... It almost seems like its in a holding pattern waiting for important finacial news. The uncertainly with the options scandal and if AAPL misses consesus earnings estimates it can be devastating to the PPS. I will continue to hold AAPL unless it decides to break 70.50.

[Melf Elf]

This Apple wont fall from the tree!

nullz,

Get a canon and blow the danged thing outta there.    

The trading has been very wierd on AAPL the last few weeks

Very.  False breakdowns and false breakouts on the intraday chart.

nothing seems to take AAPL down for long.

It's moving down to the bottom of the pattern again.

I will continue to hold AAPL unless it decides to break 70.50.

Good luck.  Hope it breaks down for you. 

[nullzero]

Today was a good day for the bears in AAPL  . Down over -2% on good volume. More negative news just came out as well with another Class Action Lawsuit announced against AAPL about 30 mins ago.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060828/0157954.html

[Melf Elf]

Melf you taking up a short position in AAPL or already have one?

nullz,

No.  As the chart stands, I have to favor the Bulls for the following reasons:

1. The stock won't DIE, dang it!   

2. In July, I thought that the parabolic rally to the top of the Falling Wedge was nothing more that a short-squeezing screamer to the upside.  When AAPL rallied through all 4 or 5 levels of resistance, closed above the Falling Wedge, then gapped up again, my reasons for being short were blown, and I covered.

3. Since then, AAPL rallied to $70.00, then came down and:

a. Filled the gap from July 28

b. Found support near the top of the Kumo (Cloud)

c. Found support on August 10 and 11 at the re-test of the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, as it "should," if it's bullish.

BULLISH.

4. Since the successful re-test, AAPL has been in a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple), consolidating the gains from the parabolic rally, as it "should."   If stocks don't build a base like this Symmetrical Triangle, from which to launch another rally (consolidation/bullish continuation pattern), they often put in a "blow off top," then fizzle.

Im still holding my short position in AAPL avg. around 64s. I believe AAPL is setting up for a big fall now all it takes is the straw that breaks the camels back (the right negative news).

5. AAPL has had some bad news over the past month, yet it refuses to DIE.  It still might, as you expect, but thus far, it's handling bad news very well.  That's bullsih.

6. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart is bullish.  AAPL is above the Kumo (Cloud), and the 8-day (solid green line) and 22-day (solid red line) are properly positioned. 

A minor correction of the NAZ would help push AAPL closer as well to filling the GAP in the 50s.

The current Symmetrical Triangle could "morph" (change) on us, and still be bullish.  For example, picture if AAPL went down and made a "lower low" below the August low, but found support again near the Kumo (Cloud), or near its 50DMA, at 62.20, then rallies.

That's getting well ahead of ourselves, but we could be looking at a Bull Flag.

On the other hand, AAPL closed on Friday at the top of the Symmetrical Triangle, "champing at the bit" for a breakout, which for Tuesday, September 5, would be a print above 68.634.

Bottom line for me, at this point: it's acting too strong to short it.

[nullzero]

I agree with you melf AAPL does have alot of bull power. I think the question on everyones mind is will it have enough to break 70. The buy volume the last few weeks has been mostly below average volume. We will have to see what happens in the next few weeks I think right now alot of expectations for AAPL are priced in. The Paris expo is coming up, If the expo brings no exciting product announcements like an iPhone we may see a sell off. I think the market is getting impatient for new Apple products.

[Melf Elf]

I agree with you melf AAPL does have alot of bull power. I think the question on everyones mind is will it have enough to break 70.

nullz,

Yeah, a Symmetrical Triangle would put the $70 IN PLAY, which could be all it has, but 77.05 also will be IN PLAY if it breaks out on Tuesday (high - low, added to the breakout).  The technicals look decent.  RSis, MACD acting fine, etc.

I think right now alot of expectations for AAPL are priced in. The Paris expo is coming up, If the expo brings no exciting product announcements like an iPhone we may see a sell off. I think the market is getting impatient for new Apple products.

That's what I thought when AAPL took out the Right Shoulder low (64.35) of the Bullish Inverse H&S on May 17, then tanked to $50 in mid-July.  However, the six week rally since then is telling us that a lot wasn't priced in, or we wouldn't be 36% higher off that low.  And, AAPL hasn't buckled thus far on the options bad news, or on the battery recall, which "couldn't be worse timing for AAPL, with back to school..."   AAPL sold off a little on both occasions, but keeps coming back.

I'm leery about shorting a stock that has a decent looking chart and technicals, and that refuses to sell off on TWO bad news stories, if you see what I mean.

That said, I still hope that it tanks for you. 

[ScottishTrader]

Hey guys, just thought I would put my two cents in as a regular Apple (and AAPL) follower.  AAPL stock doesn't seem to move too strongly to hardware (i.e. computer) related announcements, but this could be set to start changing, and at the moment there are expectations for several both Mac and iPod related announcements this month, all of which could be a driver in terms of the stock price (just remember what happened last year when they released the nano).

First, Apple is expected to make a major announcement regarding iTunes, possibly next Tuesday, 12th Sept.  It is highly likely that this will include a new version of the iPod Nano, and also announce the beginning of movie downloads from iTunes.  These are both well expected, and while iTunes itself has never been a huge rearner for AAPL, many are interested to see how strong uptake of digital movie downloads will be.

Second, this month should also see second gen Intel refreshes for the Mac Mini, iMac, and/or MacBook Pro, the last two will more than likely use Intel's new Core2 Mobile (Merom) processor.  It remains to be seen whether they make a big song and dance about it, or quietly release updates. 

I mention this here because it is clear that in the last couple of years analysts have been focusing (and the stock has reflected) almost exclusively iPod related sales and news.  However, last quarter especially, showed very strong Mac sales (particularly laptops, of which Mac laptops accounted for around 12% of total US laptop sales last quarter) and the Street seems to be waking up to the fact that computer sales are likely to become an ever stronger part of Apple's earnings mix.  Clearly negative news hasn't impacted AAPL's share price as much as anticipated.  Could positive news be a strong driver?  If we are looking for a news driven breakout, keep your eyes peeled at the beginning of next week.

[Melf Elf]

1.Gapped up at the open above the top of the Symmetrical Triangle, 68.634

2. Pulled back near 11:00AM to fill the gap and to re-test the breakout and held at 68.55, just eight cents below the breakout (good entry there for a quick long trade).

3. Then rallied and MADE the 70.00 target, within five cents so far (high is 69.95).

That's some strength. Near-perfect today, technically. 

[nullzero]

Nice eye Melf on AAPL. Im on the wrong side of the trade on this one. BTW did you play AAPL today on the long side?

[Melf Elf]

Nice eye Melf on AAPL. Im on the wrong side of the trade on this one. BTW did you play AAPL today on the long side?

nullz,

Yes, after the gap up breakout opening, I put in an order at the gap/breakout. 

After the breakout above the morning high of 69.95 to 70.38, the pullback at 1:51PM was to 69.94, so thus far, the 70.00 target area now is acting as support.

I'll stop out the trade if 69.94 gets broken.

 

[nullzero]

Im getting worked today I should of covered a while ago, live and learn though

[Melf Elf]

live and learn though

nullz,

That's the important thing.    

It's only one trade.  Learn from our mistakes, and move on.

Applause for your good attitude.   

[Tequity]

"Keller Rohrback Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Apple Computer, Inc. -- AAPL"

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060804/103348.html

These golddiggers can't hurt a stock as strong as Apple's. But on the technical side that gap closing today was a good entry for a short or put (they ran it almost to 70 as I thought).  That entry was especially sweet when it gave up 3 pts almost immediately. I'd cover at 69.50 or on the next sharp move. Just a trade imo. GL

http://tequity.blogspot.com

I haven't been here in a while and this thread has gotten really long. As I hinted before holding out for a 20+ pt drop on this stock was kinda naive. That move in July was a runaway breakout. I'm not sure what shorts were thinking, there was a chance to cover in early Aug. But no reason to hold out a short unless you were really bearish about the market.  GL

[Melf Elf]

I haven't been here in a while and this thread has gotten really long.

Tequity,

That's because we've been workin' hard while you were off playin'. 

As I hinted before holding out for a 20+ pt drop on this stock was kinda naive. That move in July was a runaway breakout.

Sorry that we were too naive to pick up on your hint.   

I'm not sure what shorts were thinking,

The shorts were thinking that, after a runaway breakout that went parabolic, there was a chance of "Ye Olde Parabolic Return," like PLNR just had (see chart below).

there was a chance to cover in early Aug. But no reason to hold out a short unless you were really bearish about the market.  GL

That looks obvious, now that AAPL has had an upside breakout yesterday, but there also was a chance to cover PLNR throughout the period of one month, but those who didn't cover their PLNR short were rewarded very handsomely, and those who held it long are the ones who look "naive."

So, okay, you got this one right and you've come back to rub the shorts faces in it after the fact, but I sure hope you understand that you're going to get some wrong, too, and that others will think you are the one who is naive.

You might want to check your ego at the door if you're going to play the market. 

Good luck!

[joet]

  Melf You are up late tonight!  I am looking forward to the fall season of trading, hopefully we get a little more volume to spice things up.  Since the big gap up i have been on the wrong side of AAPL 3 times !!  Leaning the hard way.

Thanx for your words to Tequity, hindsite is always easy, i really appreciate those that post their trade ideas before the trade.  I have been trying to do that when i feel i find a good one.

Cheers joe